2019 NBA Draft Prospects: Jaxson Hayes' superior athleticism could launch him into the top-20

With some college prospects, trying to figure out exactly how they fit into the modern NBA is difficult. Context is important, and a player’s development or skillset will change based off of where he gets selected. Particularly, teenage draft prospects are affected substantially by the team that selects them, and the roster environment they’re drafted into.

Sometimes though, a prospect just very obviously is what he is. The translation to the NBA is simple. A prospect will work, or he won’t work. But at the end of the day, it won’t be because of something unexpected.

Texas freshman center Jaxson Hayes falls into the latter scenario. The scouting report on him going into every game is obvious. You know what he brings to the table. It’s a simple job that requires athleticism, hard work, feel for the game and an innate sense of timing.

“I’m a shot blocker who plays above the rim,” Hayes told The Athletic. “I clean things up on the defensive end. Kinda like a Clint Capela, DeAndre Jordan, Jarrett Allen type. Like Jarrett Allen with the shot-blocking, DeAndre playing with pick-and-rolls, I do stuff like that.”

Simply put, Hayes is your patented low-usage, defensive-minded center. He’s still a bit of a project due to his relative inexperience and youth. But while most center prospects should be rightfully devalued in an NBA that has become increasingly perimeter-based and overflowing with competent big men, I’m not sure Hayes is the kind of player that should be discounted. The 6-foot-11, 225-pound 19-year-old with a monster 7-4 wingspan and a frame that looks tailor-made for adding strength as he gets older is the kind of big man that every NBA team is looking for.

Still, it’s hard to imagine that we’re already at this stage with Hayes, whom NBA executives are already discussing as a potential lottery pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. After all, Hayes just started focusing in basketball as his sole sport after his junior season in high school. The son of Jonathan Hayes, a former NFL tight end who has served as the Bengals tight ends coach since 2003, Jaxson’s first love was football.

“I used to love football,” Hayes said. “Football was my favorite sport as a kid growing up. My friends and I would always play football in the front yard. We’d play basketball too, but we always played football. But then I just kept growing, and I’m happy it worked it this way.”

He entered high school at right around 6-foot tall, and doctors told him that he would likely grow to about the same height as his father, somewhere around 6-foot-4 or 6-5. However, Hayes shot right past that to 6-7 by the start of his junior year in high school, grew around two more inches by the start of the summer between his junior and senior years, and continued to grow until he hit the 6-foot-11 he currently stands today by the end of his senior year. At the start of the summer before his senior season, he had one scholarship offer from Middle Tennessee State, who he says offered him simply based off of the strength of his highlight tape. That’s when he stopped playing football and started to really get confidence that basketball was the right track. Later that summer, he joined Twenty Two Vision, the grassroots basketball team on the Adidas circuit associated with Romeo Langford, and exploded. By the end of the summer, he’d rack up over 40 offers, becoming fodder for high-major schools overnight. Arguably, he was the breakout performer of the summer.

Still, most expected Hayes to be a multi-year player at Texas because of the raw nature of his game entering college. And while many of those same questions about his game’s readiness continue to arise, his impact because of his athleticism and length has been undeniable. Hayes is averaging 10.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2.5 blocks in just 22.6 minutes per night, and has forced his way into Texas’ starting lineup. Even more impressively, though, he’s shooting a ridiculous 74.7 percent from the field. His penchant for the spectacular has been readily apparent, simply showcasing highlight-worthy plays that few guys his size could even dream of.

More than that, though, he’s forced his way into the draft considerations of NBA teams. In a year where few true big men have really worked their way into the hearts of evaluators, Hayes’ mix of athleticism, length, upside and defensive play have impressed many across the league.

“Every team would be happy with a player like him: a screen-setting, rim-running, defensive big man,” one NBA executive told The Athletic. “There are a lot of these types of guys, but what makes him different is that he has elite size, length, and athleticism.”

Indeed, Hayes has pushed his way into the conversation to be one of the first true big men taken in the 2019 NBA Draft. Here’s a quick breakdown of why.

Elite Defensive Upside

The first place you have to start with Hayes on defense is with the shot-blocking. Hayes’ 13.0 block percentage is currently sixth nationally in the NCAA, posting 4.5 blocks per 40 minutes. He’s good at holding up his position on the block, as well as rotating over from the weak side and swatting shots away into oblivion.

He’ll catch players on the perimeter who think they have more time than they do. He’ll chase them down in recovery due to his quickness and length. Simply put, he locks down the paint. When Hayes is on the floor, opponents shoot just 42.8 percent from 2-point range, which is nearly four percentage points better than when he’s off the floor for Texas and 11th nationally, meaning Hayes is centering an elite interior defense when he’s on the floor. He’s not a perfect interior defender yet. As with many players still growing into their bodies, Hayes has issues with fouling, averaging six per 40 minutes. He still needs to work on just staying vertical and using his length to affect shots instead of trying to swat at everything.

But as we know, there’s more to NBA defense than shutting down the paint for centers. Nowadays, centers have to be comfortable switching out onto NBA guards and sliding with them for multiple steps. At some point, every big man will be placed on an island against an elite guard, and will need to stand up. Possessing terrific footwork and great reaction time, Hayes has already showcased a penchant for being able to guard away from the basket.

As seen above, Texas mostly plays drop coverage with Hayes as the big man in middle screen and rolls, essentially daring guards to drive at him into the paint. On side screen and rolls though, they’ll give Hayes a bit more latitude to step away from the paint and showcase his movement skills. Technically, he does still need a bit of work in regard to not biting on pump-fakes, and to keep low while sliding. However, his feet are quick and fluid, especially for a player of his height. Throw in those long arms, and it’s exceedingly difficult to blow by him. Hayes credits work earlier in his life that has had long-standing impacts on his current skill set.

“I’ve always worked on my footwork playing with my dad from playing football,” Hayes said.” I’ve always had that since I was younger.”

Currently, it’s easy to believe that Hayes would get shoved around a bit at the next level. However, Hayes has terrific shoulders and a great frame for putting on weight and strength long-term. Additionally, while Hayes’ penchant for chasing almost everything leads to fouls, evaluators do point to the fact that he generally plays hard and has few habits that truly give them long-term concern. There’s work to do, but it’s easy to see an NBA team simply selling itself on trusting its player development and defensive staffs to teach Hayes everything he needs to know in order to take full advantage of his elite-level tools. However, one area genuinely gives evaluators concern on this end.

Poor Defensive Rebounder

Simply put, Hayes has been a poor defensive rebounder for a defense-first center. Thus far this season, he only has a 16.4 defensive rebounding rate, a number that is remarkably low for someone with his physical tools. For reference, R.J. Barrett has a 15.2 defensive rebounding rate. Keldon Johnson has a 15.7 rate. Jarrett Culver has a 17.3 defensive rebounding rate. Given that all three of those guys are true wings, that’s not great company to keep. It’s an issue that Hayes knows he needs to fix, as it’s the No. 1 thing he will tell you about when asking about his own self-diagnosed weaknesses.

“Rebounding the ball,” Hayes said. “I feel like I’m not rebounding the ball at the rate I need to.”

The problems here are twofold. First, his penchant for chasing almost everything leads to him getting out of position a bit too regularly. Then on top of it, he all too often just doesn’t put a body on another player. He trusts his length to do the work. However, when you combine that with a lower half that can be moved around by players with lower centers of gravity, it leads to Hayes giving up more second chances than you’d like from your shutdown center.

The overall team stats reflect Hayes’ struggles on the glass. When Hayes is off the floor, Texas grabs about 74 percent of its defensive rebounding opportunities. But when Hayes is on the floor, that number falls to 67 percent. Basically, when Hayes is on the floor, Texas grabs defensive rebounds at a rate commensurate with the 311th-ranked team nationally. That’s an issue that must get sorted out as Hayes continues to get experience on the floor, and it’s clearly the part of his game that should give evaluators the most pause right now.

Dynamic Monster in Pick-and-Roll

Unsurprisingly given his tools, Hayes is already among the most effective players in college basketball as a roller in screen-and-roll scenarios. Impressively, Texas has utilized him well. According to Synergy, Hayes is tied for 10th in roller scoring nationally, having already scored 51 points in that setting. And among the 127 players to have finished at least 25 pick-and-roll possessions, he’s sixth in efficiency, posting a ridiculous 1.46 points-per-possession mark. When breaking down that part of his game the first thing worth pointing out is just how much of a weapon he is in lob plays. He’s a fan of slipping screens as opposed to making contact, but he’s certainly not shown over his career that he’s opposed to making contact in order to get his guard further separation.

First, just the sheer bounce and quickness off of his feet is a weapon in these scenarios. His length and explosiveness allow him to high-point balls above most college players, and he’s proven an ability to leap off of one foot or two. Additionally, his hands are terrific. It’s not uncommon to see him catch lobs with one hand, and he can handle pocket passes that end up below his waist. His sense of timing on when to start the roll is terrific.

But the other important aspect of Hayes is that he’s not just a weapon when rolling all the way to the basket. In order to counteract what teams expect from Hayes as lob threat, Shaka Smart and Texas have decided to start using Hayes as a short-roll weapon. Indeed, Hayes is something of an underrated ball-handler, with the ability to use one or two dribbles to drive to the basket in order to score. Or, as in the example shown below, Hayes can even go full-court leading the offense.

NBA defenses have similarly started to use defenses that sell out to stop the 3-point line or to protect the basket. Often, that leaves the midrange area open for a roll, but a big man has to either be able to shoot, put the ball on the deck and drive to the basket, or to pass it when the defense collapses on him. He has the driving part — even having shown the capacity for busting out an impressively fluid Euro-step for a big man. Undoubtedly, these are the remnants of the days when Hayes was a high school freshman and sophomore and was a wing.

However, he is missing the other two. Hayes is still working on the shooting aspect of his game with the Texas staff, stating to The Athletic that they’ve worked on it a lot recently. That hasn’t resulted in any in-rhythm shots, but this part of his game could be coming. However, one aspect that Hayes has not really shown yet is the feel for when to kick out to his teammates. His 3.2 percent assist rate would be among the lowest of any drafted center over the last decade. His role for Texas is that of a finisher, but it’s still somewhat concerning that he’s only stumbled his way into five assists in over 450 possessions played this season.

Speaking of being a finisher, it’s worth finishing on one skill that every big man must learn at some point: what area of the floor to sink into in order to get open dunks. Be it the short corner or the area behind the defense when a guard drives to the hoop, Hayes has an innate feel for how to get loose from defenders in order to dunk on people.

Here, the ability to get up off of his feet quickly pays dividends, as rotating defenders often don’t really have enough time to react. Overall, Hayes’ impact on Texas’ offense has been substantial. The Longhorns are 12 points per 100 possessions better with Hayes on the floor than when he’s off the floor, a number that is particularly impressive when considering that he came off of the bench for the first part of the season and played with many different lineups.

Overall Evaluation

It’s easy to see why evaluators are going to fall in love with Hayes. He’s a rapidly improving big man, with elite tools even by NBA standards, who works hard at his craft and is at the same time basically a blank canvas with few bad habits. NBA decision-makers will sell themselves on Hayes as a high-level prospect if he chooses to leave college after just one season.

The intersection of all of those skills along with the athleticism at such a young age has placed Hayes prominently on the radar, with some executives going as far as to say they think he will be a lottery pick. I’m similarly as excited for his upside as they are, while also acknowledging the present concerns. The rebounding weakness is real — and always been there — and the lack of playmaking for others (even in spite of his finishing role) still leaves questions in my mind that I just can’t quite escape. If I’m selecting a big man in the lottery, I think I’d like him to be just slightly more polished and ready physically to play sooner rather than later.

And yet, it’s also impossible for me to get out outside of the top-20 without having Hayes’ name there. The upside is real. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Hayes turned into a quality starting center by the time he turned 21 or so. There are definitely some real similarities to his profile and Jordan, Capela and Allen’s coming into the league. Particularly, the Capela comparison seems apt, given Capela’s unique perimeter movement skills paired with his timing for blocking shots.

At the end of the day, I would bet on Hayes translating swimmingly to the NBA whenever he chooses to come out. It might take him a year or so to adjust the physicality of the game and to put on some further strength, but this projection isn’t particularly complicated in terms of style.

Maybe the passing never comes along, and maybe the rebounding holds him back to more of a rotational role than a starter role. But one thing is certain: there’s not much in Hayes’ game that will come as a surprise to executives. He’s a tailor-made fit for the way the league is going due to his athleticism and length.

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