Elliotte Friedman @FriedgeHNIC

Here's your deal:<br><br>To Carolina: Guentzel, Ty Smith<br><br>To Pittsburgh: Michael Bunting, Ville Koivunen, Vasili Ponomarev, Cruz Lucius, conditional 2024 1st, conditional 2024 5th.

Carolina Hurricanes

Barring something spectacular in the coming 14 hours, this is the marquee trade of the deadline.

The Carolina Hurricanes are dominant in terms of controlling play. They generate lots of offensive-zone time. They're currently third in the NHL by expected goals percentage and rank first among all teams over the last three seasons.

Their fatal flaw? Putting the puck into the net. It's one aspect of the game but, really, the only aspect of the game, if you think about it. That problem has manifested for Carolina in many ways in the last few years, but never more visibly and consequently as last season's Eastern Conference Final. The Hurricanes scored six total goals in a four-game sweep by the Florida Panthers.

Jake Guentzel is a pure goal scorer. He's fast and can score off the rush. He knows how to find soft areas below the faceoff dots, receive a pass, and quickly fire it on net. He can battle through traffic and find loose pucks around the crease. His shot itself is effective. As of Feb. 25, he ranked ninth among all NHL wingers by five-on-five goals since 2017-18. This season he had 52 points in 50 games, including 22 goals.

Did Crosby and Malkin and Letang have something to do with his success? Yes. Have any other wingers in this era been able to match those numbers while playing alongside those guys? Absolutely not. The Hurricanes generate scoring chances at an exceptional level. They need someone to help them put the puck in the net. They found the right guy for the job.

While they gave up some meaningful prospects in this trade, they managed to keep their top guys. It was an expensive splurge by the Hurricanes and unlike them to do so for a rental, but he fit the need and they built up enough organizational strength to be able to afford the move.

For more on how this trade impacts Carolina, please check out Sara Civian's analysis of the move. She is plugged in on all things Hurricanes.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Roughly two weeks ago I made the argument that the Pittsburgh Penguins would be making a big mistake in trading Jake Guentzel rather than re-signing him. I stand by that take.

Having said that, I'm going to go against consensus and argue that the Penguins prioritized the right type of return in this deal.

The Penguins did not guarantee a first-round pick in this deal; they'll get a second-rounder unless the Hurricanes make the Stanley Cup Final this season. Considering that players like Sean Walker and Adam Henrique returned first-round picks, the optics of this are admittedly very bad.

But the Hurricanes' first-round pick, if they don't make it to the Final, will likely be in the range of 25th-30th overall. There is hardly a guarantee of getting a meaningful player in that range of the draft. Yet even if they did, the Penguins would be picking an 18-year-old. Perhaps that player could turn into a good NHLer in four or five years. Maybe even a really good one.

There is no four or five years as far as the Penguins are concerned. Sidney Crosby and Kris Letang will be 37 at the start of next season. Evgeni Malkin will be 38 and Erik Karlsson will be 34. A pit of despair awaits the Penguins as those players age out of the league. They have two years to try to milk one more Stanley Cup out of this generational core. Maybe three if we're being generous.

Michael Bunting, 28, is in the trade. He's a similar archetype to Guentzel, albeit a much worse version. But the former Leaf battles below the faceoff dots, gets open near the net, and scores when he's fed the puck. He scored 23 goals in each of the past two seasons playing alongside Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner. He won't pot 40 like Guentzel, but he will work well with Crosby and Malkin in that type of manner. He's signed to a $4.5M cap hit through 2026.

Ville Koivunen, 20, has 55 points in 57 games in Finland's Liiga. He is the top point producer on one of the top teams in Europe. The former second-round pick is clever with the puck, particularly in small areas of the ice. While he's not fast in straight lines, he does have good edgework and can cut around defenders. He has some work to do away from the puck and defensively but he makes plays happen in the offensive zone. He could become a middle-six winger.

Vasily Ponomarev, also a 2020 second-round pick, is a no-nonsense center. He's well-rounded and does everything at an average or better level. A defensive-minded player, Ponomarev has 29 points in 39 AHL games this season and earned an NHL call-up, tallying a goal and assist in two games. He's not enthralling but he's a good bet to become a bottom-six center who kills penalties and chips offensively.

Chaz Lucius, 19, was a fourth-round pick in 2022 and has been a point-per-game player for Wisconsin in the NCAA for the past two seasons. He is a flashy scoring winger but needs to improve his skating and become a more complete player who can produce from the middle of the ice.

Should the Penguins have received better prospects? Perhaps. It's hard to know what the competing offers were and how much more the Hurricanes would have buckled.

Philosophically, I think the Penguins had the right idea. Ponomarev could be a full-time NHLer out of the gate next October and Koivunen might not be far behind. If the Penguins are going to have any shot of a final Stanley Cup in the Crosby era, they need to insert young, cheap players in the lineup as soon as possible. Draft picks won't do that for them. Those two prospects could.

So there is a method to Dubas' madness here. Of course, the simplest path towards getting back on track would have included re-signing Jake Guentzel.