After Cubs’ collapse and Craig Breslow’s departure, how will they build a playoff bullpen?
Sophia Edwards Craig Breslow undeniably left the Chicago Cubs’ pitching development program in better shape than he found it. That practical experience of creating an operational plan, hiring staff and managing the rollout became the finishing piece to his resume. As he successfully interviewed to become the new chief baseball officer for the Boston Red Sox, he could point to tangible results.
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The Cubs also won’t be unveiling a banner at the Wrigley Field opener next year for having a farm system with the highest average fastball velocity among minor-league pitchers at full-season affiliates in 2023. There were myriad reasons why the Cubs missed the playoffs by one game, but having another trusted, hard-throwing reliever in the bullpen certainly would have helped. As much progress as the Cubs have made with their Pitch Lab and other initiatives around pitch grips and pitch shapes, it still wasn’t good enough.
The Cubs have not yet built a pitching factory at the scale of the Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians or Los Angeles Dodgers. Even without his work with the Cubs, Breslow would have been a compelling candidate for almost any job he wanted in baseball. Good luck finding another Yale graduate with a degree in molecular biophysics and biochemistry who once pitched for the Red Sox in the World Series, still lives in the Boston area and already has relationships with the team’s hiring committee.
Breslow’s imprint on the Cubs will continue to be seen if Justin Steele wins a Cy Young Award someday, Cade Horton becomes an All-Star, and Jordan Wicks and Ben Brown start playoff games at Wrigley Field. The more immediate signs will be how the Cubs rebuild their bullpen this offseason and whether president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer gets closer to his stated goal of having all of those spots filled with homegrown relievers. This is a fundamental principle in Hoyer’s front office — the performances of relievers are notoriously volatile.
If the Cubs are that concerned about their return on investment with a two-year contract for a reliever, then it’s likely that they will be skeptical of handing Josh Hader the kind of five-year, $102 million contract that the New York Mets gave Edwin Díaz, who then suffered a season-ending knee injury during the World Baseball Classic.
Pierce Johnson, the first pitcher drafted by the Theo Epstein regime in 2012, is a good example of how the Cubs may want to proceed. The Atlanta Braves announced this week that they signed Johnson to a two-year, $14.25 million contract. Don’t expect Hoyer to dramatically change his general philosophy on avoiding multiyear deals for relievers. Rather, look for Hoyer to seek out pitchers who have a similar track record to Johnson’s profile entering last winter.
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Johnson came up in the Cubs organization at a time when the minor- and major-league pitching programs operated on separate tracks, a gap that Breslow’s group later helped close. Breslow had the credibility and the authority to implement his philosophy and realign scouting and player development. By the time Johnson was nearing the majors, the Cubs were in a World Series window that decreased the patience and opportunities for pitching prospects.
The San Francisco Giants claimed Johnson off waivers in 2017. He went to Japan to work on his craft in 2019 and parlayed that experience into a two-year, $5 million contract with the San Diego Padres. He demonstrated his talent with strong seasons in 2020 and 2021, but he entered free agency after a down year in 2022, which allowed the Colorado Rockies to scoop him up for just one year and $5 million. He did not pitch well at Coors Field, but he thrived after a midseason trade to Atlanta.
That’s exactly what Hoyer will be looking for this winter. There will be an emphasis on finding veteran relievers who have had some success in the past — or flashed the potential to put it all together — but haven’t done it consistently or recently enough to command a multiyear contract. The Cubs recognize that there was a void in a bullpen that leaned young and inexperienced.
Unearthing talents such as Julian Merryweather and Mark Leiter Jr., who were not on many radars in spring training, is a credit to this pitching infrastructure. But the Cubs lacked that grizzled veteran to lead the way. Even Hoyer, who can at times be skeptical about clubhouse intangibles, believes that the bullpen is one area where a team really needs someone to set an example for how to prepare for each game and navigate the ups and downs throughout the season.
Michael Fulmer brought some of that presence and know-how, but he struggled early in the season and his absence was deeply felt during the September collapse. Fulmer is expected to miss the 2024 season while recovering from UCL revision surgery on his right elbow. Again, the injuries and the attrition are part of what makes constructing a bullpen so unpredictable.
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Johnson’s developmental path is also instructive. A system once devoid of pitching talent seems to be teeming with “stuff” right now. Some of those potential starters may not end up in the rotation, but they may find success in shorter bursts. Daniel Palencia and Luke Little already made that transition. Who’s next? Whether it’s Brown, Hayden Wesneski or Javier Assad, it’s likely there are more pitchers who will compete for a rotation spot but wind up contributing out of the bullpen.
It’s up to the Cubs to continue to develop them and get them ready for life as a reliever. While the idea of having to pitch just one or maybe two innings sounds simple enough compared to a starter’s workload, that adjustment isn’t always so easy. That’s where the veteran reliever with some experience and attitude could come in handy. The major-league staff is also being overhauled, with new coaches expected to be added to focus on the bullpen, catching and game strategy. In the pursuit of velocity, little things can slip through the cracks, like being able to hold runners, vary looks and execute in the moment.
Statistically, the Cubs bullpen wasn’t as bad as it may have felt at times. They finished with a 3.85 ERA, which ranked 13th in baseball, or just below Atlanta and Tampa Bay. Their 26 percent strikeout rate actually led the National League while their .222 batting average against ranked second to the Milwaukee Brewers. Though the Cubs rotation lacked big-time velocity, their bullpen was actually tied for sixth in baseball in average four-seam fastball velocity (95.2 mph).
That group also had the second-highest walk rate in baseball (11 percent), which is something that particularly bothers Cubs manager David Ross. Those relievers also gave up too much hard contact and line drives while not getting the ball on the ground enough. The bullpen’s failures in May and September might have sunk their season. During those months when they hadn’t figured out the bullpen roles and injuries caught up to them, the relievers were bottom three in baseball in what FanGraphs described as “Clutch” moments.
As long as the Cubs properly develop young pitchers and hone their skills so it isn’t always stuff over command, they don’t have to bat 1.000 in free agency. Previous signings like Brandon Workman didn’t work out for the Cubs, but relievers such as Andrew Chafin and David Robertson pitched well enough to get traded for Palencia and Brown. Once again, the methodical Hoyer isn’t looking for a quick fix.
(Top photo of David Ross and Julian Merryweather: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)