Formula One may be at the midpoint of its 2023 season, yet attention is already shifting toward 2024.

The early stages of car development for next year are already underway as Mercedes, Ferrari and Aston Martin all bid to make up the gap to Red Bull. We already know next year’s calendar — featuring a record-breaking 24 races — and most of the grid is already in place from a contract point of view.

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But a handful of drivers still need to firm up their plans for 2024. F1 is renowned for its annual driver market merry-go-round — aka, “silly season” — that often springs some big surprises, such as the fallout from Fernando Alonso’s decision to leave Alpine for Aston Martin last summer, or Daniel Ricciardo’s shock exit from Red Bull in 2018.

Here’s how the 2024 market is shaping up during F1’s summer break and the latest updates on all the drivers whose futures currently remain unconfirmed.

Lewis Hamilton

Lewis Hamilton is the biggest ‘free agent’ currently on the market for 2024 — but that is a term to be used loosely.

The nature of Hamilton and Mercedes’ relationship has always made contract renewals a fairly straightforward process, even if not a quick one. Once, they even left it until the winter, announcing in February his new contract for the 2021 season that started the following month.

Talks between Hamilton’s management team and Mercedes chief Toto Wolff have been taking place over recent months and are now nearing their final stages. “I don’t want to give you a date,” Wolff said after the Belgian Grand Prix. “It’s lawyers speaking to lawyers, it’s no material things anymore. But you have to give it time.”

A renewal has always been inevitable, even when rumors linking Hamilton to Ferrari that were denied by both sides emerged around Monaco. It’s really just a question of how many years. A two-year renewal has been mooted — apparently revealed privately by Wolff to one of the Sky Junior presenters in Hungary — which would keep Hamilton at Mercedes until he is 40.

Hamilton is in zero rush and very relaxed about the situation. He’s made light in press sessions lately about the recurring questions looking for updates, always saying there aren’t any to offer but that it will all get done in good time. And it will.

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Daniel Ricciardo

Daniel Ricciardo’s shock return to the F1 grid in Hungary took away what was poised to be the biggest storyline of silly season going into 2024. Still, there are questions to be asked about his plans for next year.

Ricciardo has been clear that his decision to return to F1 with AlphaTauri was made with the long-term goal of getting back in a Red Bull car. That won’t happen until 2025 at the earliest, given that Sergio Pérez has a contract in place for next year and is delivering what Red Bull needs him to right now. The team will win the constructors’ championship, and Pérez should be good for second in the drivers’ standings.

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Christian Horner said after the race in Belgium that Pérez’s goal for the second half of the year was “maximizing his own performance, not losing out to any of the drivers behind and trying to pick up a few wins.”

For Ricciardo, staying at AlphaTauri — or whatever the team is called next year, the latest reports out of Italy suggesting Hugo Boss could take over the naming rights — is the most logical option. The second half of this season will allow him to properly bed in with the team and understand its current standing before it hopefully takes a step forward in performance for next year, and gives him a chance to properly stake a claim for a 2025 Red Bull seat.

Yuki Tsunoda

Ricciardo’s AlphaTauri teammate, Yuki Tsunoda, is also a free agent for next year as things stand. But for a team that is undergoing a huge amount of change, stability in the driver line-up would be a wise thing to follow.

He may have only scored three points, but this has comfortably been Tsunoda’s strongest season so far in F1. He’s regularly fought on the fringes of the points despite the car’s limitations, which is the slowest on the grid. Even more impressive has been the consistency Tsunoda has found this year, something that was lacking at times through his first two seasons.

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Red Bull has its next junior, Liam Lawson, fighting for the Super Formula title in Japan. Had it been totally convinced of Lawson’s readiness for F1 Red Bull would have chosen him to replace de Vries, not Ricciardo.

Zhou Guanyu

With Valtteri Bottas locked in for next year at Alfa Romeo, when the Sauber-run team is set to change its name as it inches toward its Audi works partnership starting in 2026, Zhou Guanyu’s contract is the only one that needs sewing up.

Zhou said at Spa that he has “started to talk a little bit with the team” about plans for next year and wanted a “clear picture” by the end of the summer break. “This time last year, I was more worried than I am now because I feel like the team is quite happy with the line-up,” Zhou added.

And he’s correct. Alfa Romeo knows its current level of performance is not the same as in the early part of last year when Bottas heavily outscored the then-rookie Zhou. Only a point separates the two drivers in the championship, and Bottas is just 7-5 ahead in their qualifying head-to-head. Zhou’s charge to fifth on the grid in Hungary was his best Saturday result to date in F1.

Although Zhou said he was “open to other opportunities” next year should they arise, his “priority is to stay where I am” and continue to build on his progress through 2023 with the team. It’d be a surprise to see the team look elsewhere, particularly given the commercial boost Zhou provides from China.

Nico Hülkenberg and Kevin Magnussen

Even after three years of not racing full-time in F1, Nico Hülkenberg showed no signs of rust in his comeback season with Haas.

He has completely justified the team’s decision to drop Mick Schumacher, scoring nine of its 11 points and putting in some stunning qualifying performances. Hülkenberg qualified second in Canada (dropping to fifth due to a penalty) and fourth for the Austria sprint, where he managed to snare three points despite the Haas car’s total lack of race pace right now.

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Hülkenberg has as many Q3 appearances this year as Sergio Pérez and leads the intra-team head-to-head against Kevin Magnussen 9-3. There’s no reason to think he won’t be sticking around for next year.

While Magnussen hasn’t enjoyed the peaks in form of Hülkenberg this year — qualifying fourth in Miami is his highlight — he’s not been so far off come Sunday. They’re tied 5-5 for comparable race results.

Magnussen said there was no news to offer in Belgium on his future, but “eventually we’ll come around to it,” and he thought the team was “pretty happy” with the current line-up. Team principal Günther Steiner used those exact words in Canada, again indicating that Hülkenberg and Magnussen would stick around in 2024.

When it signed Hülkenberg last year, Haas said it wanted stability and experience to help build for the future. Those needs remain the same in its current competitive position, and Magnussen and Hülkenberg provide exactly that.

Logan Sargeant

Logan Sargeant’s season hasn’t delivered the kind of heights enjoyed by fellow rookie Oscar Piastri. But the American has impressed Williams with his pace and, importantly, his attitude so far this year.

There have been the occasional rookie mistakes — crashing in the sprint shootout in Baku; spinning late on in Hungary — and he’s yet to outqualify Alex Albon, who has spearheaded Williams’s efforts this year, or score a point, recording a best result of 11th at Silverstone.

But Sargeant has already been a step up on the driver he replaced, Nicholas Latifi, who had significantly more F1 experience under his belt. Bear in mind Sargeant was in an uncompetitive Formula Three car just two years ago. Some adjustment is to be expected.

James Vowles, Williams’s team principal, said after the British Grand Prix, it was “just a question of when” Sargeant’s first points arrived, and Spa was an encouraging weekend where he wasn’t far off Albon’s pace. His status as F1’s only American driver is also something Williams’ owner, the New York-based Dorilton Capital, considers a commercial plus.

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It means the signs are pointing to Sargeant sticking around for next year. Sargeant said after Spa he was looking forward to the summer break, believing he often comes back stronger from time off where he can digest his performances and find room for improvement. “I need to clean some things up,” he added. “I think as a team collectively, we can clean some things up. And that’s what we need to focus on going into the second half of the season.”

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A static market for now

Unlike the surprise moves that rocked last year’s driver market and meant only four of the 10 teams went into 2023 with the same line-up that they ended 2022, the market for next year is looking far more static.

One thing to remember is the lack of strong alternatives outside of the current F1 grid for any teams with a free seat for next year. No one is dominating Formula Two this year in a way that might make them a compelling option for an F1 seat. And with Hülkenberg and Ricciardo both off the market, there aren’t experienced heads sitting on the sidelines that may benefit teams. For that reason, stability will appeal.

But in another 12 months, settling the market for 2025? It could be a very, very different story. Many senior figures within the paddock are anticipating some big shifts that year. Not only will Pérez’s future at Red Bull be central to the market, but both Ferrari drivers will be out of contract as things stand. We’ll also be a year closer to Audi’s arrival at Sauber, the works operation starting in 2026 appealing to drivers playing the long game.

For now, the 2024 silly season isn’t looking very silly at all. But things can change very quickly in F1.

(Top photo of Lewis Hamilton: Dan Istitene/Formula 1 via Getty Images)