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What’s the single most important thing to know when drafting? — Justin S.

The number of players taken so far at each position. I usually tier my running backs and wide receivers. My tiers are basically No. 1 fantasy WR/RB, No. 2, No. 3, No. 4 — so four tiers. I will always  take the player in the higher tier when it’s my turn to pick. I don’t really care about the player or the byes. I never pay an ounce of attention to playoff schedules.  If it’s a tournament or if there is a big total points prize, I’ll probably try to stack WR and QB. Maybe WR, QB and TE. I do generally pick kickers with late byes because I don’t want to think about kicker. I stream D/ST based on the opposing offense, typically.

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Between RB and WR, which position has more value in the tier 3 to tier 5 range? Or which of those positions is it more important to prioritize landing a top player at that position? — Jonathan H.

My fifth tier is pretty much just filling out the cheat sheet if everyone ranked players just like me. I don’t think I’ve ever gotten into the fifth tier in a draft. I’m usually drafting my tier 3 the whole time and just touching tier 4s. Typically I am drafting WRs very aggressively. I don’t play Flex 9. I only play Flex 10, really Flex 11/SuperFlex. Just deeper formats. What this means is three WRs and a flex (Flex 10) vs. two WRs and a flex (Flex 9). I like three WRs and two flexes (Flex 11). I’m mostly crushing the WR queue every round. Other than the first round, where I’m tempted to get a top RB, I’m leaning toward drafting WRs every early-round pick. Again, if you’re Flex 9, forget this. I’m getting a Top 5 RB and/or as many Top 25 WRs (basically tier 1 and 2) as I can collect. The tier-three RBs are the clear backups who have some proactive role even if the starter is healthy/effective, but who is an injury away from being a real difference maker. There just are not many of these types. This is why the waiver wire is generally ripe with a back or two who are playable for at least that week, every week. Samaje Perine is an example of this tier-three RB. Also, A.J. Dillon and  Jamaal Williams.

I’m thinking I can grab high-quality RBs later than usual this year. Derrick Henry in the second round, Joe Mixon in the third, and Dalvin Cook even later. Should I target WRs and QBs earlier than usual because of this? — Joseph K.

You should not target QBs early. I know there’s data that says that this was a winning strategy last year. But in most years, the QB1 is the QB drafted at least 10 or 11 QBs into the draft. Remember, QB touches are pretty uniform. It’s much harder to really separate from the field. As for the running backs who are values in the second round or later, I’m out of this market. If you think the guy can be a Top 5 RB, fine, go for it. But I’ve worked out the historical data a hundred different times and you’re just leaving so many expected points on the table with every second-, third-, fourth-, and even fifth-round RB taken over a WR. This is why you count. At some point, the WRs pass the running backs in the number who have been picked and that’s when the tiers tend to even out a little. Hopefully you have four or five WRs by then.

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Who are the under the radar rookies drafted on Day 3, or not drafted, who you like long term at QB, RB, WR, and TE? — Mikeael P.

Nope. Don’t do this. Rookies drafted on Day 3/undrafted are for waivers. If a guy has a starting job on the eve of your draft, fine (if the price is right). Usually third-day rookies are not unveiled as fantasy assets until the season starts. Speculating on who they are is pure guesswork. The math is so, so bad. Basically, three percent of WRs and RBs taken on the third day or later have any significant fantasy relevance. This is only counting WRs and RBs, and only those drafted since the undrafted is too numerous to count. Even if we back out all the cuts by our drafts typically, we’re still getting maybe a 10% hit rate at even a marginal level of scoring.

Rookie TEs are a no-go for me in redraft leagues. I always bet the base rate, and the math on rookie TEs is putrid. As I wrote in our fantasy football magazine: “Kyle Pitts is the only rookie tight end to score over 170 points as a rookie the past five seasons and he squeaked by at 176.6. He was the fourth-overall pick in real life and a second-round fantasy pick, too. One other has scored more than 150 points.” So a generational prospect has minor rookie relevance and basically you get bupkus from even the highly drafted others. This is just a hard pass for me.

What QB2 could you see making the leap into QB1 territory? — Chris L.

Obviously Aaron Rodgers, given his averages the past three years are 35 TD passes and seventh-overall in QB scoring. He’s probably playing with a chip on his shoulder and look out when that’s the case, historically. Plus, I think the Jets WR talent is at least as good as it’s been for Rodgers in Green Bay, that’s how highly I regard Garrett Wilson as a talent. But the point is that you wait on a QB because someone from the bottom half of the QB queue is almost certainly going to end up being a difference maker. And if you miss on that guy, it’s not even crippling since you can always get another QB. You have to lean into stealing points late in your draft and you have to be disciplined enough, structurally, to do that at QB.

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What rookie running backs do you expect to make the biggest fantasy splash, besides Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs? — Alexander B.

I don’t expect any to. I will hope some do and that’s what the late rounds and the waiver wire is for. But I can almost guarantee that the rookie who becomes important in a fantasy sense when the chips are on the table is going to be someone who was drafted and dropped in most leagues. Second-round rookie RBs have about a 25% hit rate. It’s about double that for first-round picks. You’re only going to get about two per year, though more may have stretches of relevance during the year.

I loved following your zeroRB strategy last season. Who are your early favorites for this draft strategy in 2023? — Phil L.

Maybe zeroRB turns people off. “We need running backs, genius!” they say. I’m tired of explaining that it doesn’t mean “no RBs.” How about “WR-focused drafting.” Basically, unless you’re just blown away by someone at another position, your focus with every premium pick should be, “What WR can I plausibly take here?” That’s your bias in drafting. That’s the structural strategy you should follow. Again, I can’t stress enough that this is for Flex 10 and 11, and not Flex 9. If you’re two WR and a flex, even in full PPR, you must prioritize RBs more aggressively.

Do you believe that the Lions rookie TE Sam LaPorta will be a Top 10 player at his position? — David H.

Of course I do not. Look, rookie TEs are worthless almost always. Try to make bank some other way. You’re just wasting your time even trying to ferret these guys out.

Can Travis Kelce keep crushing the TE position at age 33? Is this a year to pay up for Kelce, or can we find value with Mark Andrews/T.J. Hockenson/George Kittle in tier 2, or punt the position with Pat Freiermuth or another young TE late? — Jonathan H.

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Now this is fascinating. I did the research. I looked at top TEs in age 33 and age 34 scoring. How did the 33-year-old top scorers hold up at age 34? Takeaway: Two improved. Gonzalez declined by 17%. That would put Kelce at about 262 points in PPR. But again, two top age-33 guys got better, so you can’t ding him really. Kelce has to be a Top 8 pick again. There is no getting around it. He could be the No. 1 pick, value-wise, even given the massive edge he provides at a position you must play. You can’t pass on Kelce in the back half of Round 1. I’m not tempted for one second by the likes of Saquon Barkley or Austin Ekeler over Kelce. I can easily see things going sideways for both of them more so than for Kelce. Ekeler is aging out at RB more than Kelce is at TE. Barkley averaged 14.9 points in full PPR his last seven games. Snore.

(Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports)