From Mike McDaniel to Josh McDaniels: How new coaches are faring after 4 games

Nearly a third of the teams in the NFL are being led by new head coaches, and most can feel encouraged by their early results.

Seven of the 10 are at least .500, including a trio with 3-1 records. Look further, and the five first-time head coaches — Mike McDaniel, Brian Daboll, Kevin O’Connell, Nathaniel Hackett and Matt Eberflus — are all at least .500 and 13-7 overall.

Comparatively, the league’s four longest-tenured coaches — Bill Belichick, Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh and Pete Carroll — were a combined 6-10 in the opening month.

Experience can often be overrated, although a four-game stretch should hardly ever be viewed as a referendum on a season or career. Belichick lost 13 of his first 18 games with the Patriots from 2000-01. Josh McDaniels got off to a 6-0 start with the Broncos in 2009. Similar examples are plentiful.

Overreactions aside, at least one of the new coaches appears to be leading a contender, while a few others are in charge of teams on the short list of early-season surprises. Of course, there are disappointments in the bunch, too.

Let’s take a run through those 10 teams to see how things are shaping up.

Dolphins’ record: 3-1

How it’s going: The Tua Tagovailoa concussion controversy has clouded the Dolphins’ otherwise tremendous start, although the NFL and NFLPA review of the matter will determine how it all went awry. The Dolphins opened with impressive wins against the Patriots, Ravens and Bills before falling to the Bengals, and McDaniel’s offensive system was clicking with Tagovailoa and receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

What the future holds: Tagovailoa won’t play this week against the Jets, and there’s still no timeline on his return, so the Dolphins’ immediate fate is in Teddy Bridgewater’s hands. The Dolphins entered the season looking like fringe playoff contenders, but the victory against the Bills revealed a much higher ceiling. The Dolphins have the 22nd-most difficult remaining strength of schedule (.471), but their long-term potential is likely linked to Tagovailoa’s health.

Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said if Tua Tagovailoa had a concussion last week, the team would've reported a head injury.
He also said there was no concern about Tua's head coming into tonight's game.
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) September 30, 2022

Brian Daboll, Giants

Record: 3-1

How it’s going: The Giants are in a rebuild as they clear the books from Dave Gettleman’s cap situation, and expectations were modest as a result. So the 3-1 start, including wins against the Titans, Panthers and Bears and a close loss to the Cowboys, is one of the league’s biggest surprises. They’ve gotten almost nothing from receivers Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney while Sterling Shepard tore his ACL and rookie Wan’Dale Robinson injured his knee in the opener. So three wins while leaning almost entirely on running back Saquon Barkley is borderline unbelievable, though the defense surely deserves a ton of credit for allowing the ninth fewest points in the league.

What the future holds: Quarterbacks Daniel Jones (ankle) and Tyrod Taylor (concussion) were injured Sunday against the Bears, so that’ll increase the degree of difficulty in their upcoming stretch against the Packers, Ravens and Jaguars. In fact, the Giants have the eighth-most difficult schedule the rest of the way, so the 3-1 start probably won’t be sustainable unless Golladay gets it going, and Toney and Robinson deliver when they get healthy. Either way, there were plenty of reasons to like the arrival of Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen, and the 3-1 start should validate that optimism.

Kevin O’Connell, Vikings

Record: 3-1

How it’s going: The Vikings opened with a statement 23-7 victory against the Packers and have also beaten the Lions and Saints. Their only loss was to the undefeated Eagles in Week 2. Wide receiver Justin Jefferson has had two monstrous performances, and his star status should absolutely explode in O’Connell’s offensive system. The mood in Minnesota has markedly improved with O’Connell and general manager Kwesi Odofo-Mensah, and the results are following.

What the future holds: The Vikings’ remaining strength of schedule (.529) is tied for the ninth-most difficult, but they look ready to contend for a playoff berth. They’ve got some interesting tests on the horizon with a trip to Miami in Week 6, a visit to Buffalo in Week 10, a home game against the Cowboys in Week 11 and a rematch with the Packers at Lambeau in Week 17. Those matchups may be more indicative of the Vikings’ potential, but O’Connell is living up to the hype of his arrival.

Nathaniel Hackett, Broncos

Record: 2-2

How it’s going: The .500 record won’t be sustainable if the offense doesn’t make significant strides, which is why Hackett was hired in the first place. They lost the opener to Seattle because of bad clock management but rebounded with wins against the Texans and 49ers before falling Sunday to the Raiders. The good news was the Broncos scored a season-high 23 points. The bad news was they surrendered 32, nearly doubling their total from the first three games (36). Hackett also hired Jerry Rosburg as a game management coach, which was both an honorable acceptance of a blind spot as well as an indication of room for growth. Still, it was obvious in training camp and appears to remain apparent the locker room is wholly behind Hackett, so that’s significant.

What the future holds: Time will tell if these are directly comparable or just a reach, but Aaron Rodgers’ numbers skyrocketed in his second season with Hackett in 2020. So maybe it’ll just take time for Russell Wilson and Hackett to match their off-field chemistry with on-field production. The NFL has such a win-now business model that it’s sometimes reckless to believe an offensive-minded coach and accomplished QB can be dropped into a brand new situation together and the results will instantly follow. However, the new ownership group — which shelled out $4.65 billion for the team and $245 million for Wilson — won’t want a repeat of the Seattle game and should rightfully expect the team to rank much higher than 30th in scoring. That just got more difficult with running back Javonte Williams’ torn ACL, and the stout AFC West leaves little margin for error. The Broncos’ remaining strength of schedule (.442) is the 19th-most difficult in the league and the second-most daunting in the division. They’ve got another primetime game — their third of the season — Thursday against a similarly inconsistent Colts team.

In just three games, Doug Pederson is tied with Urban Meyer for the fifth most coaching wins in Jacksonville franchise history after the Jaguars win on Sunday.
◽️ Jack Del Rio: 68
◽️ Tom Coughlin: 68
◽️ Doug Marrone: 23
◽️ Gus Bradley: 14
◽️ Doug Pederson: 2
◽️ Urban Meyer: 2
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) September 26, 2022

Doug Pederson, Jaguars

Record: 2-2

How it’s going: They’re tied with the Titans atop the AFC South, and it doesn’t look like a fluke. The Jags opened with a loss to the Commanders, which feels more surprising now in hindsight, then blew out the Colts and Chargers before Trevor Lawrence’s fumble-filled defeat in Philly. Lawrence is clearly benefiting from Pederson’s coaching after the Urban Meyer disaster, and that’s more important than anything. But the Jaguars already feel like they’re ahead of schedule in the rebuild.

What the future holds: The Jaguars aren’t necessarily supposed to contend for a playoff spot, and maybe they won’t. Maybe the 2-2 start is a fluke, and we’re getting ahead of ourselves here. But the Jaguars were competitive in both losses, and their remaining strength of schedule (.452) is tied for the seventh-easiest. One important factor: Because their victories were lopsided, the Jags will have to prove they can win the closer games, or the idea of a Cinderella season has no chance. Either way, Pederson has the Jaguars in a good place for the first time in years.

Matt Eberflus, Bears

Record: 2-2

How it’s going: The Bears shocked the Niners in the opener, fell to the Packers, beat the Texans and dropped another one Sunday to the Giants. Eberflus’ defense is ranked 11th in points allowed (19.3), so he is making an impact on the 23rd-ranked scoring unit from 2021. Quarterback Justin Fields, who doesn’t have much help around him, is only completing 50.7 percent of his passes while averaging about 17 attempts per game.

What the future holds: There were minimal expectations in Chicago this season, so the 2-2 start already feels like a victory. Eberflus’ No. 1 objective, along with offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, is to aid Fields’ development, and there’s no close second for a team in full rebuild mode. The Bears have the third-most difficult remaining strength of schedule, so it would be a huge surprise if they keep up this pace in the win column.

Todd Bowles, Buccaneers

Record: 2-2

How it’s going: They’re off to a slow start and haven’t had a game when it’s all been put together. Bowles’ defense carried the Bucs to wins against the Cowboys and Saints and nearly had enough in a 14-12 loss to the Packers, but they were outplayed Sunday night in a 41-31 loss to the Chiefs. The offense has been sluggish, possibly in part because of Tom Brady’s 11-day absence in training camp and definitely due to key injuries to receivers Chris Godwin and Julio Jones and the one-game suspension for Mike Evans.

What the future holds: Brady didn’t return to play out the stretch in his unparalleled career, so the offense should likely get itself on track, especially with better health at the skill positions. And the defense looked legit before the Chiefs unfurled an offensive masterpiece, so that should come together as well, especially with the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule (.423).

Josh McDaniels, Raiders

Record: 1-3

How it’s going: Quarterback Derek Carr was careless with the ball in the 24-19 loss to the Chargers, then the Raiders blew a 20-point lead in a loss to the Cardinals and came out flat to drop a third straight to the Titans. The Raiders finally got on the board Sunday with a victory against the Broncos, and it was extra meaningful because they played well when the game was tight in the fourth quarter. The Raiders have the talent to make a playoff push, and their remaining strength of schedule (.442) is tied for the fourth-easiest in the league. They just need to stop beating themselves.

What the future holds: Don’t fall into the narrative that the McDaniels hire will fail in Vegas like it did in Denver. He’s a completely different person and has a better plan this time around. The Raiders should be in good hands.

Dennis Allen, Saints

Record: 1-3

How it’s going: Allen was the Saints defensive coordinator last season when they allowed the fourth-fewest points in the league. Now, they’re No. 20. They opened the season with a solid comeback victory against the Falcons but have since fallen to the Bucs, Panthers and Vikings, although the Saints were competitive in each defeat. But now counting Allen’s first two-plus seasons as the Raiders head coach from 2012-14, he is 9-31 in this role.

What the future holds: Quarterback Jameis Winston reportedly has four fractured vertebrae in his back, and running back Alvin Kamara and wideout Michael Thomas are also injured. Rookie receiver Chris Olave has been excellent, but it might be tough to rebound from the 1-3 start if those three aren’t at full strength.

With the Las Vegas Raiders' 32-23 win over the Denver Broncos, there remains one winless team in the NFL.
The Houston Texans. (0-3-1)
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) October 2, 2022

Lovie Smith, Texans

Record: 0-3-1

How it’s going: The Texans opened the season with a tie against the Colts, and they’ve been competitive in one-score losses at the Broncos and Bears. They also nearly erased a 20-point, third-quarter deficit against the Chargers before falling, 34-24. The Texans play hard, as they did last year for David Culley, but it’s a solid sign that they’re doing it again for Smith. And quarterback Davis Mills is still developing under offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, albeit with a roster that has been ripped down to the studs in this massive-scale rebuild.

What the future holds: The Texans are self-aware. The playoffs weren’t a realistic goal in 2022. General manager Nick Caserio needed to stack together good drafts — cornerback Derek Stingley and running back Dameon Pierce already look like the real deal — and right the books while moving on from quarterback Deshaun Watson. Smith had to know this when he took the job, and he’s been through this before, going 5-11 in his first season with the Bears in 2004 and 2-14 in his initial campaign with the Bucs in 2014. And with the fifth-most difficult remaining strength of schedule (.567), life won’t get any easier for the Texans. They will also have to determine whether Mills will be part of their long-term plan, as they’ll likely be in position to take one of the top three QBs in the draft.