CLEVELAND — It will be a future-shaping winter for Cleveland Guardians president Chris Antonetti and general manager Mike Chernoff as they identify Terry Francona’s replacement, dangle Shane Bieber on the trade market, mull over options to upgrade a lacking lineup and plot out the best course of action for a few rising prospects.

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Here’s the Guardians’ offseason checklist.

Step 1: Hire a manager

In the next week or so, someone will pose for photos in a white Guardians jersey and answer a slew of questions about following in Francona’s footsteps. When Cleveland hired Francona in 2012, he made the decision easy for the organization’s brass. Their process required only a few steps because of how invested he was from the jump.

So, the Guardians really haven’t had to do this since 2009 when they replaced Eric Wedge with Manny Acta, who emerged from a wide cast of candidates that included Bobby Valentine as a finalist even though Valentine acknowledged he didn’t know much about the team or its players or the division or the American League and didn’t even know if he wanted the job. (Huh, wonder why they didn’t go with him?)

It’s no surprise, then, that the Guardians’ initial list included 45 names with a diverse set of experiences and backgrounds. From the start, an external hire seemed more likely, especially with Sandy Alomar Jr. opting not to interview. Keep an eye on Stephen Vogt (longtime catcher who retired after the 2022 season and spent ’23 on the Seattle Mariners’ staff), Carlos Mendoza (New York Yankees bench coach) and Clayton McCullough (Los Angeles Dodgers first-base coach). Among internal options, John McDonald (longtime player and then coach in the organization) and Chris Valaika (hitting coach) have received consideration as well.

It’s also worth keeping in mind the club could find non-managerial roles for certain interviewees, depending on the new manager’s staff preferences. A lesser-experienced candidate who doesn’t get the job, for instance, could wind up as Cleveland’s new bench coach or senior executive coordinator of run prevention or assistant to the manager. And the more candidates the Guardians vet, the more they can learn about other clubs’ ideas and perspectives. That could prove beneficial for an organization that has had limited outside hiring on the coaching staff and in the front office over the past decade.

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The Guardians remain a young team that, with some front-office roster polishing, could contend for at least a division title next season. This isn’t the traditional situation of a new manager taking over a team either launching a rebuild or mired in one. Finding the right fit is paramount.

Step 2: Learn from mistakes

Failure is the best teacher, and Mike Zunino, Josh Bell, Will Benson, Nolan Jones, Junior Caminero and Amed Rosario will be part of the front office’s curriculum this winter.

What can they learn from shortcomings on the field and transaction wire? What do former players flourishing elsewhere tell them about their ongoing bid to elevate their hitting development program to the standard they established with their envied pitching factory? What conclusions can they draw from breakout performances by the Naylor brothers, disappointing results from nearly everyone in their outfield, an underwhelming showing by their cast of shortstop candidates, prospects who blossomed (Chase DeLauter, Kyle Manzardo, Juan Brito) and others who floundered (George Valera)?

“Some of that is a huge credit to our scouting and development system — that we were able to build up players like that,” Chernoff said when I asked what Benson, Jones, Caminero and others reveal about the team’s hitting development. “And unfortunately, the timing didn’t work out for them to impact our major-league team and we had to make decisions on them for roster management or because we wanted to acquire somebody else. You look up afterwards, in hindsight, sometimes you wish you could have them back. But the situations were what they were at the time.”

It’s critical for this organization to develop hitters, nail MLB Draft picks and assemble a deep pipeline of talent, not only to fill the major-league roster but also so it can flip prospects for established talent to bolster areas where it’s deficient. Of course, the Guardians have to size up those deals properly, too. They dealt away two burgeoning outfielders before last season, thinking they had sufficient depth with Myles Straw, Will Brennan and Oscar Gonzalez aboard, and they have yet to move any of the middle infielders they’ve been stockpiling for years.

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Step 3: Improve the lineup

The new manager can scribble the names Steven Kwan, José Ramírez, Josh Naylor, Bo Naylor and Andrés Giménez in permanent ink on his lineup card. After that, though, this lineup needs reinforcements.

Manzardo, a potential middle-of-the-order first baseman who has done nothing but mash doubles and home runs in Columbus and Arizona since joining the organization over the summer, seems ready for his first major-league opportunity. Brito, DeLauter and Valera could join the fray at some point in 2024, though it’s probably wise if the club doesn’t simply bank on their playing key roles and instead allows them to force the issue.

(An aside on Manzardo: He’s clearly in the club’s 2024 plans and has been since the team traded Bell — who would have blocked Manzardo at first base/DH — one day after acquiring Manzardo from the Tampa Bay Rays. Will the new manager be as averse to rookies in the April lineup as Francona was? Manzardo could be a favorite to win AL rookie of the year. If he were to make the Opening Day roster and finish in the top three, the Guardians would net draft pick compensation. If Manzardo finishes in the top two, regardless of when he reaches the majors, he would earn a full year of service time, nullifying any roster manipulation games the club plays. Tanner Bibee is facing that quandary; he stands to benefit immensely if he finishes second to the heavy favorite, Gunnar Henderson. This is getting ahead of ourselves, but it’s something the front office will undoubtedly discuss as spring training approaches. There’s no sense in rooting against your own player, and the Guardians need his bat in the middle of the lineup, so it might make the most sense to just start him from Day 1. Or, they could sign him to a long-term deal in the spring and make all of this moot.)

The understatement of the year: Cleveland needs an established outfielder or two. The shortstop situation remains messy and fluid, with Gabriel Arias poised to enter spring training with a leg up on Brayan Rocchio and Tyler Freeman. The front office seems open (but hesitant) to shifting Kwan to center and/or Giménez to shortstop. Both could land their second consecutive Gold Glove in a couple of weeks.

The Guardians finished last in the league with 124 home runs. The Washington Nationals hit the second fewest, with 151. That difference of 27 was greater than the difference between the teams ranked 19th and 29th in home runs.

They need more power. They need more threats at the plate in general.

wRC+ by batting order spot

1. 100 (21st): Kwan was solid, unspectacular. He wants to make more hard contact.
2. 93 (26th): This is propped up a bit by Ramírez’s shifting into the No. 2 spot late in the season.
3. 112 (14th): Ramírez had, by his standards, a pedestrian season.
4. 106 (15th): Josh Naylor (128 wRC+) spent 73 games in this spot. The other No. 4 hitters: yikes.
5. 97 (20th): Bell was a massive disappointment.
6. 79 (26th): Ten players hit sixth; only David Fry (104) and Ramón Laureano (103) produced league-average offense.
7. 102 (5th): In an odd quirk, Giménez, Brennan and Arias hit well in this spot.
8. 82 (17th): Bo Naylor boosted a spot otherwise occupied most often by Straw and Mike Zunino.
9. 56 (28th): The two most common No. 9 hitters: Straw and Cam Gallagher. Enough said.

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Overall: 92 (22nd)

These players also batted fourth at various points for the Guardians: Bell (31 games), Laureano (20), Kole Calhoun (19), Gonzalez (15), Giménez (two), Brennan (one) and Fry (one).

This isn’t a team that pursues top-end free agents, but there aren’t any on the outfield market other than Cody Bellinger. The best of the rest: Teoscar Hernández, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Kevin Kiermaier, Jason Heyward, Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall, Michael A. Taylor and Harrison Bader.

The more plausible way to upgrade the outfield? A trade or two. They could send out some prospects, or …

Step 4: The Bieber decision

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Cleveland figures to assess the trade value of its starting pitcher who has limited team control.

Bieber burst onto the big-league scene in 2018 in a rotation that featured Corey Kluber (traded in December 2019), Carlos Carrasco (traded in January 2021), Trevor Bauer (traded in July 2019) and Mike Clevinger (traded in August 2020). In his first full season in the majors, 2019, Bieber teamed with fellow 2016 draft picks Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale to keep Cleveland afloat when injuries wrecked its rotation. The club traded Civale three months ago. Plesac became a free agent this month.

Does Bieber, with two injury-marred seasons in the past three years, have enough value to fetch a position player who could start for the Guardians daily? Is there someone with limited team control who might make sense in a one-for-one swap with a team desperate for pitching? Or might it be prudent to hang on to Bieber and recoup a draft pick after next season or re-evaluate at the trade deadline? The buzz around Bieber should increase as the Winter Meetings approach. Cleveland’s front office is no stranger to this circumstance.

Step 5: Upgrading on the margins

The Guardians should deploy a playoff-caliber rotation in 2024. There are building blocks in the lineup and bullpen. Depth is a necessity. Making the right tweaks to the roster will be pivotal.

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The free agents include Calhoun, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López.

López would be a perfect fit for a bullpen that could use a steady eighth-inning option, but he might have priced himself out of Cleveland’s comfort zone. The Guardians rarely outbid other teams for free-agent relievers. Calhoun achieved his goal of reaching 10 years of service time, sprinkled his wisdom throughout the clubhouse and now could call it a career. Giolito could have secured a massive payday with a productive contract year, but his second half with the Los Angeles Angels and Guardians was a nightmare.

(A wild Giolito stat: He became one of four starting pitchers in major-league history to allow 40 or more home runs and tally 200 or more strikeouts in a season. The other three are Hall of Famers: Phil Niekro (1979), Bert Blyleven (1986) and Jack Morris (1986). Giolito had, by far, the best strikeout rate, the lowest innings total and the worst home run rate and ERA of the group.)

The Guardians have 10 players eligible for arbitration: Bieber, Gallagher, Laureano, Sam Hentges, James Karinchak, Triston McKenzie, Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill, Enyel De Los Santos and Nick Sandlin. MLB Trade Rumors, in its annual forecast, estimated those 10 would account for just shy of $40 million, though a couple of non-tender candidates in that bunch (Gallagher, maybe Karinchak) could be cut loose in a few weeks. If they don’t mind paying Laureano $4 million to $5 million, he could fit in the old Ryan Raburn/Brandon Guyer/Jordan Luplow platoon role, but with better defense.

Prospects eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft unless they’re added to the 40-man roster by Nov. 17 include Johnathan Rodríguez, Aaron Bracho, Cade Smith, Daniel Espino, Tanner Burns, Mason Hickman, Micah Pries and Daniel Schneemann.

Espino is a lock to be added. Smith seems likely to be protected as well. Rodríguez is an interesting case: He enjoyed a breakout season (.897 OPS, 29 home runs, a bushel of strikeouts), but the Guardians typically haven’t prioritized players with that profile. They left Gonzalez and Benson unprotected in recent years, for example. Bracho, another semi-intriguing option, is only 22 and enjoyed a resurgence in 2023, but that came on the heels of a pair of brutal years at the plate.

(Top photo of Shane Bieber: Jason Miller / Getty Images)