“Why aren’t players shooting? I blame the coaching. It’s being slowly coached out of the game by the likes of Guardiola, Arteta, and Rodgers”

So tweeted one football fan recently, questioning whether the most enjoyable part of the beautiful game was changing before their very eyes. 

Parking the suggestion to one side that some of the Premier League’s most modern coaches are having a negative effect on the game, it is interesting to look at trends in shooting behaviour.

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Has there been a shift between the quantity and quality of shots in the Premier League?

In the football analytics sphere, a lot of work has been done to understand how certain variables influence a chance of scoring a goal.

It will surprise no one to know that the closer you are to goal, the higher the chance you have of scoring, but in the age of expected goals (xG) and the growing importance of data within professional clubs, we can now quantify the probability that a given shot will lead to a goal — accounting for many factors such as the angle from goal, or how many defenders are in the way. For today, we are going to largely focus on one of the key factors — shot distance.

We know that a penalty has an approximately 75 per cent chance of resulting in a goal. A shot from outside the box? Somewhere in the region of five to 10 per cent depending on the context — significantly less likely than a shot taken within the penalty area.

Aside from keeping us analytics folks busy at our laptops, it is important to explore how much this increased understanding of shots has influenced what actually occurs on the field. After all, football is not played on spreadsheets…

If analytics has had any influence in the modern game, we should see an evolution in the locations of shots taken towards higher quality areas closer to the goal. This may not please the fan in the stadium yelling “shooooottt!!” when their midfielder picks up a loose ball on the edge of the area, but it would keep Pep Guardiola et al happy to know that players are making better decisions around the penalty area. 

First up, let’s explore whether the volume of shots has actually changed over the last decade in the Premier League. Looking at the graphic below, you can see a steady decline in the average number of shots per game. Where fans were seeing 28.4 non-penalty shots per game on average in 2011-12, they are now seeing 23.9 per game as of last season — nearly five shots fewer in a single match.

Now, although it’s difficult to infer the causality of this downward trend over time, it is also difficult to ignore the role that analytics is likely to have played in such outcomes on the pitch. Crucially, with fewer non-penalty shots being taken per game compared with 10 years ago, has that also meant fewer goals? The good news is: no. 

The 17 per cent decrease in shots per game between 2011-12 and 2020-21 is not matched in the goals per game in that same period. The 2.4 non-penalty goals per game last season was a slight reduction from the 2.6 per game in 2011-12 but the decline is not as steep as we have seen for shots. 

So, with fewer shots taken but not a significant change in goals scored, what’s going on?

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It looks as though the influence of analytics and time spent on the training pitch is sanding off the edges in reducing those low-value shots. Looking at the percentage of open-play shots taken from outside of the box over time, we can see that there is a noticeable decline. Where previously there were as many as 47 per cent of shots taken outside the penalty area, this was a lot lower last season (38 per cent).

Call it a coincidence, but with the emergence of xG from 2013 onwards, lower-value shots have declined as analytics-driven insight has grown.

Of course, we assume that this reduction in longer-range shots has come in exchange for making that extra pass to create a more productive shooting opportunity — that may not always be the case and there could be some merit in shooting from distance… sometimes. 

Shooting from range can lead to lucrative actions within the next few seconds, like a rebound, a corner, or a deflection through crowded bodies. Meanwhile, simple mathematical probability will show that adding an extra variable (ie, a pass for a team-mate to control and shoot) could lead to a reduced likelihood of a goal if the pass is unsuccessful.

Nevertheless, it’s fun to look at who has the highest average shot distance in the Premier League over the past decade. Filtering for players who have had 200 or more open-play shots since 2011-12, there are some predictable candidates among the top 20 who tend to ignore the xG gods.

Charlie Adam’s time at Liverpool and Stoke in the 2010s saw him average the highest average distance of a given shot in open play, pulling the trigger from 27.6 yards on average, with 82 per cent of his shots coming outside the box. Granted, he did find the back of the net six times when shooting outside the box, but he was not known for “playing the percentages” when shooting from range.

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As a former team-mate at Liverpool, Jonjo Shelvey is just behind Adam with an average distance of 27.4 yards from a given shot. Shelvey has been a tad more successful, with 12 goals scored in open play from outside the box in that time. 

At the other end of the scale, we can look at which players average the shortest distance from goal for a given shot — removing headers to avoid a skew towards all the burly centre-backs going up for corners. Here, we see Gabriel Jesus electing to shoot from the closest distance with an average shot from just 12.9 yards out.

As much as 88 per cent of Jesus’ shots have been within the penalty area, as the Brazilian looks to be the poster boy for Pep Guardiola’s mantra to get the ball into highly valuable areas to shoot. 

Back to the serious stuff.

Over time, we are seeing a lower share of shots being taken outside the box, so it would naturally follow that the average distance of a shot taken has become closer to goal over the years.

Inspired by the work of Peter McKeever, we can contrast the locations of shots between the 2011-12 season and last season to highlight that change over time — this includes all shots in open play, and removes headed attempts on goal. 

Much like the trends across the other top five European leagues, we can see that, on average, players in the Premier League are shooting closer to goal. The median — or average — distance of a given shot in 2020-21 was 18.1 yards, down from 20.9 yards in 2011-12. This might not sound significant, but it represents a noticeable shift towards goal when considering the volume of shots taken.

The density map of the shots below neatly highlights that contrast in shot locations across each season. The brighter the red colour, the higher the number of shots within that location. Note the brighter red area outside the box in 2011-12, which is absent in 2020-21 in exchange for a higher volume of shots inside the area.

Of course, there will be variation between teams to inform this league-wide average, so a closer look at that spread is worthwhile.

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In 2011-12, Arsenal’s tag of “always trying to walk it in” under Arsene Wenger was backed up by the numbers as their average shot distance of 16.5 yards was the lowest in the league. This was closely followed by the title rivals of Manchester United and Manchester City, whose matching average shot distance mirrored their matching final points tally with the league decided by that Aguero goal.

Elsewhere, there was little to choose between much of the sides but the wider trend showed a large proportion of teams being on the wrong side of 20 yards in their average shot distance.

Contrast that with the 2020-21 season and you can see that average has notably reduced across the league. Where previously there were 17 teams whose average shot distance was at, or above, 20 yards, Burnley are the only team in the league to hit that average last season.

The margins are small, but it shows that the league average is not significantly skewed by a select few teams, and that there is a change in shooting behaviour across the board.

Zooming out once more, we can visualise this change across the league in each of the previous 10 seasons to see how the shooting distance and locations have evolved.

The 2013-14 season had the highest average shot distance of this period, with 21.1 yards showing that plenty of players were trying their luck from further out. The most notable long-range shooters that season included the relentless Adam, with 88 per cent of his shots from outside the box, the same rate as Tom Huddlestone and Andros Townsend, who were slightly ahead of Shelvey (79 per cent) and Yohan Cabaye (74 per cent).

The 2019-20 season had the lowest average shot distance of the past 10 years, with a median distance of 17.6 yards — the only season with an average that was within the distance of the penalty area.

So our friend from Twitter did have a point, then… players are, on average, shooting a little less than they used to. The data tells that story quite clearly. There is a conscious decision being made by coaches and players to work the ball closer to goal before shooting.

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But unlike that tweet suggested, it’s by no means restricted to teams coached by Guardiola, Arteta and Rodgers. It’s across the whole league. The average shot distance of Premier League clubs is shortening considerably. Just look at Chelsea — nearly four and a half yards was trimmed off their average shot distance between 2010-11 (21.7) and 2020-21 (17.3).

Although distance from goal is just one of the many factors that influence a team’s likelihood of scoring, clubs have wised up to the fact that speculative shots are less likely to get them what they need to win games: goals. 

(Photos: Getty Images/Design: Sam Richardson)