LSU’s weak NFL Draft class is a result of the previous era, but a bright future awaits

BATON ROUGE, La. — The quietest LSU pro day in recent memory took place last month, the kind where many people didn’t bother making the trip. Kayshon Boutte didn’t do many drills. The highest performer of the day isn’t expected to be drafted. It felt so distant from pro days of the past few decades with multiple Tigers expected to be picked in the first two rounds and every scout in attendance to get a look at which uber-talented Louisiana player was undervalued.

The 2023 NFL Draft, which begins Thursday, will not be an exciting one for LSU fans. It’s possible no LSU players will be taken in the first round, with edge rusher BJ Ojulari the only candidate, and other than Ojulari, LSU might not have another player go in the first two days. LSU has had a player taken in the first round in the previous four consecutive drafts, including five players in 2020. Last year, LSU had 10 players selected over the three-day draft, including the third overall pick in Derek Stingley Jr.

The how and why of this is complicated, but as LSU finds itself 16 months removed from the Ed Orgeron era, the current lack of draft options highlight the issues of Orgeron’s final two years. Meanwhile, a look at LSU’s 2023 roster shows Brian Kelly’s LSU might have a wave of first-rounders in the next few cycles.

Look at the primary players in discussion. Other than Ojulari — a team captain who likely always topped out as a late first-round prospect because of his thin frame — many of LSU’s draft prospects this year are guys who flashed exceptional talent but were held back by some lack of consistency, discipline or effort. Some of it is just bad breaks. And some players like Jay Ward or Jaray Jenkins absolutely got the most out of their opportunities. But there are issues here.

Boutte entered 2022 as one of the top receivers in the country and an expected first- or second-round pick. Instead, Boutte’s ankle surgery didn’t heal properly, and he had to get a second surgery. Then, Kelly had to call him out publicly last spring for not being involved with the program during his injury. When he eventually returned — while likely still recovering from his injury, to be fair — he had a disappointing junior season, catching 48 passes for 538 yards. Boutte announced he’d return for his senior season, only to change his mind after LSU announced he would be “unavailable” for the Citrus Bowl in January.

The Athletic’s Dane Brugler projects Boutte to go in the fourth round or later.

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In many ways, Boutte represents the end of the Orgeron era. Those two seasons going 11-12 were filled with moments of brilliance, like LSU’s upset wins over Florida and Boutte going off for a record-breaking 308-yard performance against Ole Miss as a true freshman. But those teams could also get demolished by Kentucky or score just 13 at home against Arkansas.

Boutte was considered the next Ja’Marr Chase, who went No. 5 overall in the 2021 draft, and he showed those signs. He had nine touchdowns in six games in 2021 before his ankle injury. But when you take a step back, Boutte’s career and reputation were built around three or four exceptional games, not consistent production.

Take a look at LSU’s 2020 class and this theme goes further. That recruiting class ranked No. 4 nationally the year after a national title and was supposed to be loaded with future stars. It had nine top-100 players per the 247Sports Composite.

• No. 5 Arik Gilbert: Generational talent transferred three times, now at Nebraska still looking to finally play
• No. 14 Eli Ricks: One All-American season, left LSU midseason, promised to return and then transferred to Alabama, where he took half the season to earn a starting role
• No. 24 Boutte: See above
• No. 41 Jaquelin Roy: Had a solid 2022 season as a co-starter, didn’t fulfill potential, declared early, expected fifth-round pick
• No. 57 Phillip Webb: Never saw the field, left LSU after medical issues, transferred to Jackson State
• No. 80 Jordan Toles: Struggled to earn playing time despite opportunities, transferred to to Morgan State
• No. 84 BJ Ojulari: Top success of the class, multi-year starter and team captain
• No. 96 Jacobian Guillory: Nice nose tackle, should be a key player in 2023
• No. 97 Antoine Sampah: Never saw the field, transferred to Campbell University

Yes, this was the class that arrived during the pandemic and dealt with things most classes never had to deal with before, but three years later, it’s fair to say that it’s a group that featured some exceptional talents with either off-the-field issues, inconsistency or a lack of drive. For others, they simply were not good enough to play at LSU. To drive the point home, the next seven highest-ranked players all transferred out.

To look more into this draft class, Roy was a special talent that never quite became what many expected. Anthony Bradford, from the 2019 recruiting class, had a good redshirt junior season to become a potential mid-round pick, but he struggled with weight issues for three years. Most of the other big names from that 2019 class either haven’t panned out still or transferred out, such as running back John Emery Jr. or guard Kardell Thomas.

But looking at the next few draft classes, the next few pro days in Baton Rouge should look more like the ones of old.

Next year, Malik Nabers has a chance to be one of the first few receivers taken. If defensive lineman Maason Smith stays healthy, he could be a Jalen Carter-type top-10 prospect. Defensive lineman Mekhi Wingo will likely be a first- or second-round option.

In the 2025 draft, linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. might be the biggest star in the class, that year’s version of Micah Parsons in 2021 or Devin White in 2019. LSU could also have two first-round offensive tackles in Will Campbell and Emery Jones. Plus, who knows what will become of talents like Denver Harris, Mason Taylor or Aaron Anderson.

Really, the Kelly era will come down to whether he can shrink that gap between talent and production, or really expectation and development. If there was one takeaway from Kelly’s first year, it was that he could raise the floor and create a program that gets more out of its talent. And for all the criticisms of his time at Notre Dame, he developed NFL prospects consistently despite not having the kind of recruiting classes he can land at LSU. If the Les Miles era was defined by special prospects on underwhelming teams and the Orgeron era was a roller coaster of extreme highs and deflating lows, the test for Kelly will be making LSU the kind of program that stays near the top like Alabama and now Georgia.

The draft is not an indicator of which programs are the best. Far from it. Sometimes producing a ton of draft picks can highlight underachievement.

But the draft can tell a story of where a program is. And the 2023 LSU draft class tells the story of the transition between two coaches.

(Photo of BJ Ojulari: Chris Graythen / Getty Images)