Mailbag: Faith restored in Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, running back ROS ranks and more
Mia Lopez Things change quick in the NFL and fantasy football. The key is to know how to react. It’s easy to overreact to early-season struggles and underreact to no-name players who start the season hot. I’m here to help by considering each situation’s context and thinking through it logically, even though logic can be hard to come by in fantasy. Thanks to everyone who submitted questions. If I didn’t answer yours in the article, drop it in the comments and I’ll answer as many as possible. You can also hit me up on Twitter/X @GMenJay.
Is Joe Burrow back to being a starter? — James J.
It was such a relief to see the Joe Burrow we were expecting coming into the season show up in Week 5. He’s clearly not 100%, but he looked much better than he had the first few weeks. Burrow was able to plant his foot and push off his right calf to get the ball downfield. He could move around in the pocket to avoid pressure, and even scrambled for a first down. There’s undoubtedly still risk. Burrow is using some sort of newfangled contraption on his calf between drives to keep it from stiffening up. I’ll feel confident that the calf issue is mostly behind him if he can get through this week without a setback. Cincinnati is on bye Week 7, and the time off should get him as close to healthy as we’re going to see this season. I’m starting him regardless of format.
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Where does Justin Fields rank going forward? Is he back at his ADP, or still a gamble? — Anonymous U.
Fields QB1 ROS? — Matt T.
The rumors of Justin Fields’ demise have been greatly exaggerated. I was not as high on Fields as the consensus coming into the season, but I was shocked at how fast fantasy managers and Bears fans alike were ready to give up on him after just a couple of weeks. Even with the slow start, Fields’ stats through the first three games of this season were an improvement from last year:
- 2022 — 297 pass yards, 2 pass TDs, 4 interceptions, 95 rushing yards, 1 rush TD
- 2023 — 526 pass yards, 3 pass TDs, 4 interceptions, 109 rushing yards, 1 rush TD
Granted, the previous two games where he’s put up monster numbers through the air (617 yards and 8 touchdowns) have been cupcake matchups, but it looks like the offseason addition of DJ Moore is starting to pay off. There are five quarterbacks I’d rank ahead of him in fantasy the rest of the season with little hesitation: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow. That would put Fields around Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert in the No. 6-9 range. The scary thing is Fields has yet to start running. He didn’t have a single game under 7 rush attempts in 2022, yet he has two games with just 4 attempts this season. I expect his rushing attempts to normalize back to the almost 11 per game he had last season. If Fields can put up consistent passing numbers with similar rushing production from last year, QB1 overall is within reach.
Would you trade Puka Nacua for Justin Jefferson? I’m 5-0 and have Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, and DJ Moore. — Elon G.
On the surface, trading Puka Nacua for Justin Jefferson seems like a no-brainer, but I wouldn’t do it. Jefferson being placed on the IR guarantees he’s out until at least Week 10. The Vikings are already off to a slow start, and their schedule still has some heavy hitters (San Francisco, Cincinnati, and Detroit twice). The season is slipping away quickly, and they have no reason to rush him back. If the Vikings continue to lose, they could look to trade Cousins (who can become an unrestricted free agent at season’s end) and put themselves right in the thick of the Caleb Williams sweepstakes. Jefferson has no reason to rush back, either. He didn’t land the contract he wanted this offseason and has earned every bit of the record-breaking payday headed his way. I’m not saying it’s likely, but it’s certainly within the realm of possibility that Jefferson may not return at all in what’s turning out to be a lost season for Minnesota.
Let’s not forget about Puka, either. While I don’t expect him to continue to lead the league in targets with Cooper Kupp back, Week 5 proved they can co-exist in the Rams offense. Puka had 11 targets to Kupp’s 12 and actually scored more fantasy points. He’s a must-start option as a high-end WR2 with a high ceiling and floor. Even with your 5-0 start and loaded WR corps, the production you’d lose from Puka for four-plus weeks isn’t worth the chance that Jefferson returns this season. Who knows what the Vikings will look like if/when that happens.
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Are we ready to look at Gabe Davis as a steady WR2 rest of season? Seems like Josh Allen is calling his number more than ever this year. — Elijah O
Through five games, Gabe Davis is averaging 5.2 targets a game, which is slightly under the 5.8 he saw in 2022. While Davis has been more consistent to start 2023 (only having one game under 10 fantasy points), he’s been touchdown-reliant to make that happen, scoring in four straight games. This isn’t me saying he’s going to fall off or isn’t a worthy starter in fantasy, but I’m not ready to consider him a steady WR2 when he’s seeing virtually the same target share he’s seen in the past. There’s a lot to like about Davis in fantasy. He’s tied to one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and will win you weeks when he goes nuclear. But he’s still a boom-bust player — some duds will be mixed in. The difference this year is he didn’t cost you an early mid-round pick. He was well worth the ninth-round price tag he had this offseason.
Is Zack Moss a reliable starter going forward? — Anthony W.
Reliable? No. Flex-worthy? Absolutely. Gene Clemons and I re-ranked the Top 50 running backs after Week 3, and I was asked where I would rank Jonathan Taylor if/when he returned. I said I’d still rank Taylor as a back-end RB1, but Moss has earned touches even with JT back. He’ll undoubtedly cede work to Taylor as the season progresses. But with Anthony Richardson expected to miss an extended period of time, the Colts will likely lean on the run even more. Moss showed with his 56-yard touchdown run that he can make a fantasy impact without tons of volume.
Rank these running backs for the rest of season in half-PPR scoring. — Justin M
(listed RBs ranked below)
Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara need no explanation. I’m tempted to bump down King Henry even further with his slow start, along with the emergence of Tyjae Spears, but James Cook and Dameon Pierce have warts of their own. Cook is losing passing down work to Latavius Murray, and Pierce has only surpassed 50 rushing yards in two games this season. I do like Pierce as a buy-low, however. The Texans offense is better than anticipated with the red-hot start from Rookie of the Year candidate C.J. Stroud, and the O-line is getting healthy. Sadly, Stevenson is going to be held back all year by the implosion of the New England Patriots (Bill Belichick on the hot seat?), and I want nothing to do with any running backs in Pittsburgh as long as Matt Canada is still calling plays.
That’s it for this go-round. May you all win your Week 6 matchups! Feel free to drop questions in the comments or hit me up on Twitter/ X @GMenJay — I’m happy to answer any questions there as well. See you on another time.
(Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
