Mayweather vs. Pacquiao Odds: Predictions Based on Vegas Lines | News, Scores, Highlights, Stats, and Rumors
Mia Lopez Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao will finally face off against each other on Saturday in the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, a fight boxing fans have been demanding for the better part of the past decade.
The two have dominated the pound-for-pound rankings for the bulk of their careers, and with retirement fast approaching for both fighters, we'll finally get to see Mayweather and Pacquiao go head-to-head.
Coverage of this superfight has been wall-to-wall, and millions of punters around the world will surely take the opportunity to place a bet or two in the coming week. Let's have a look at some of the odds and lines surrounding this megafight and see whether it's possible to predict the outcome.
| Mayweather vs. Pacquiao Odds | ||
| Mayweather Win (KO, TKO, DQ) | +550 | 11/2 |
| Mayweather Win (Decision) | -140 | 5/7 |
| Pacquiao Win (KO, TKO, DQ) | +400 | 4/1 |
| Pacquiao Win (Decision) | +375 | 15/4 |
| Draw | +1400 | 14/1 |
| Oddsshark.com | ||
| Round-By-Round Odds | ||
| 1 | 33/1 | 33/1 |
| 2 | 40/1 | 50/1 |
| 3 | 50/1 | 50/1 |
| 4 | 50/1 | 50/1 |
| 5 | 50/1 | 40/1 |
| 6 | 40/1 | 40/1 |
| 7 | 40/1 | 33/1 |
| 8 | 40/1 | 33/1 |
| 9 | 40/1 | 33/1 |
| 10 | 40/1 | 33/1 |
| 11 | 40/1 | 33/1 |
| 12 | 40/1 | 33/1 |
| Oddsshark.com | ||
Odds Shark has Mayweather winning by decision as the most likely outcome (11-2), an opinion that most appear to share. UFC announcer Bruce Buffer told Boxing Channel's Marcos Villegas that he's quite certain the fight will go the distance:
There are plenty of reasons to believe the fight won't be won by stoppage—Mayweather has never been a knockout artist, while Pacquiao hasn't won by stoppage in years.
There's also the value of a potential rematch should the bout end in a controversial decision, and while no one would suggest the two would steer the match in that direction, even Buffer couldn't help but mention it.
Former heavyweight champion Evander Holyfield thinks Pacquiao can pull off the decision as well (15-4), but wonders whether Mayweather would be interested in a second fight in that case, per Boxing Insider.com:
Boxing Insider.com @BoxingInsiderEvander Holyfield: "Pacquiao is going to get the decision. Then it's going to be a matter of whether Mayweather is going to fight again"
All in all, Vegas heavily favors a decision (1-3) over a stoppage (12-5), and that looks like a fair assessment. One swing of the glove could decide otherwise, however, so punters who are feeling lucky shouldn't let that stop them from taking a gamble.
If the fight is decided by stoppage, Vegas prefers Pacquiao (4-1) to come through with the deciding punch rather than Mayweather (11-2). Again, the odds make sense.
In his career, Pacquiao has won 38 matches via knockout, per BoxRec.com, including a number of spectacular stoppages. This vicious shot on Ricky Hatton in 2009 comes to mind:
"Pac-Man" hasn't stopped an opponent since his win over Miguel Cotto in 2009, however, and Mayweather has never been dropped. "Money's" last stoppage came in 2011 against Victor Ortiz, and fans know that was a knockout only on paper:
Stoppages are incredibly hard to predict when talking about two fighters whose recent history indicates a willingness to fight for the cards and a lack of raw stopping power. Back Pacquiao if you want to win big, but go for the decision if you'd rather play it safe.
Things get more interesting once we take a look at the odds for each round. Vegas gives both fighters equal odds to win Rounds 1, 3, 4 and 6, favors Mayweather in Round 2 and backs Pacquiao in Round 5 and Rounds 7-12. That's right: Odds Shark only favors Money in one out of a possible 12 rounds, although they expect him to win by decision.
It's difficult to see why Mayweather would be favored the earlier rounds and not the championship rounds. He has developed a tendency to start slow and feel out his opponent before taking over toward the middle of the fight. As explained by Compubox's Bob Canobbio, his defense has also somewhat suffered recently:
Mayweather likes to take his time and adapt to his opponent. Pacquiao, on the other hand, likes to come out guns blazing and is expected to take the fight to Mayweather as soon as he can.
If anything, Pac-Man seems more likely to steal a handful of rounds early, before Mayweather does what he always does and dominates the championship rounds. Punters shouldn't be afraid to look at these round-by-round odds and go against the grain.
Finally, we have to pick a winner. Trainer Freddie Roach is convinced his pupil will beat Mayweather easily, according to MailOnline Sport, but then again, he's supposed to say that:
MailOnline Sport @MailSport.@FreddieRoach: @MannyPacquiao could beat Floyd Mayweather with one arm behind his back!
There's a reason Vegas favors Mayweather, who enters the fight undefeated throughout his long and storied career. The 38-year-old matches up well with Pacquiao as far as styles go, using his great mobility, reach advantage and excellent jab to negate some of the Filipino's flurries.
Pacquiao has the hand speed to make life miserable for Mayweather, particularly early in the fight, but looking at Mayweather's career as a whole, you have to assume he'll find a way to beat Pacquiao in the middle of the fight and push his advantage until the final bell.
Go with Vegas on this one. It will be a very close fight, but ultimately, you should pick Mayweather as the winner.