Nets-Sixers playoff preview: Nic Claxton vs. Joel Embiid, X-factors, prediction and more

For the second time in four years, the Nets head south on Interstate 95 to face the Sixers in the No. 3 vs No. 6 first-round matchup of the NBA playoffs.

The last time they faced off in the postseason, the Nets were the new kids on the block, making their first appearance since the failed Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce superteam, while the Sixers were seeing the fruits of “The Process” pay off. The Nets lost in five games while the Sixers wound up being a Kawhi Leonard miracle shot away from potentially seeing the Bucks in the conference finals.

This time the Nets are making their fourth straight appearance, albeit without Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, while the Sixers are still trying to mount a deep playoff run behind Joel Embiid. The Nets are led by Mikal Bridges, one of the few screw-ups the Sixers made with their first-round picks while tanking.

Here’s what to watch on the Nets’ end of the series:

The schedule

Nets-Sixers Schedule

DAY	DATE	AWAY	HOME	GM	ET	TV / R
Sat	4/15	Brooklyn	Philadelphia	1	1:00 PM	ESPN
Mon	4/17	Brooklyn	Philadelphia	2	7:30 PM	TNT
Thu	4/20	Philadelphia	Brooklyn	3	7:30 PM	TNT/R
Sat	4/22	Philadelphia	Brooklyn	4	1:00 PM	TNT
Mon	4/24	Brooklyn	Philadelphia	5	TBD	TBD
Thu	4/27	Philadelphia	Brooklyn	6	TBD	TBD
Sat	4/29	Brooklyn	Philadelphia	7	TBD	TNT

Projected starting lineups

Starting Lineups

Pos.	Player	Height	Weight
G	6-6	215 pounds	Brooklyn
G	6-6	209 pounds
F	6-8	210 pounds
F	6-7	220 pounds
C	6-11	215 pounds
G	6-5	220 pounds	Philadelphia
G	6-2	200 pounds
F	6-7	226 pounds
F	6-5	245 pouunds
C	7-0	280 pounds

Regular-season series

Sixers, 4-0: Not much can be gleaned from the regular season games as Philly swept the Nets while facing different Brooklyn rosters throughout the way. The Sixers had two games against Kevin Durant/Kyrie Irving, one game right after the trade deadline, which marked Bridges’ and Cam Johnson’s Nets debuts, and last Sunday’s regular-season finale, which was a glorified G League game.

The 101-98 loss the Nets suffered in February might be the best measuring stick given it marked the first game of the new-look roster, but the team had yet to figure each other out at that point.

“I don’t think you can take a whole lot from them,” Joe Harris said Tuesday. “Obviously their roster has been a lot more consistent than ours, so there’s some takeaways from that aspect for evaluating them. But with us, they haven’t played against us where we did have this roster, but that was that first game back for Mikal and Cam. We had Doe and Spencer the game before, but that was the first time we had everybody. So definitely harder to evaluate on our end.”

Stats to watch

25.1: The Sixers were fifth in the league this season with 25.1 free-throw attempts per game, which helped make them the third-best offense in the league. Embiid averaged 11.7 attempts per game, a hair off his career-high, while James Harden averaged just 6.2, his lowest since his days in Oklahoma City.

The Nets know well how Harden’s offense can be predicated on his ability to get to the line. Some of the holdovers, such as Nic Claxton and Harris, might still have their ears ringing from Steve Nash working the refs the first half of last season after the rule changes impacted Harden’s ability to draw fouls. Claxton said Harden isn’t the same player he was in Brooklyn, but some of the pillars of his game remain the same when guarding him.

“He’s figured out his way,” Claxton said. “I think he led the league in assists this year. He’s picking his spots. He’s been solid this year. But you know like I said, keeping him off the free throw line and just knowing his tendencies it’s going to be also going to be a group effort to slow him down as well.”

7-2: That’s the Nets’ record when Dorian Finney-Smith hits two or more 3s in a game since being traded from Dallas for Kyrie Irving. He’s not the thermometer for the offense Harris was in the big three era (Was it an era though?) or LaMarcus Aldridge was early last season, but it’s an indicator of how important he is when he’s knocking down shots.

“We tell him this all the time, he’s a guy that’s got to shoot with confidence,” said Spencer Dinwiddie, who also played with Finney-Smith in Dallas, on Thursday. “We know he can shoot. He’s shown that over his career, when he shoots with confidence and doesn’t, you know, get a little timid with a shot selection we’re a much better team because then how do you guard us, right? You got typically, at all times, three guys shooting over 40 percent from 3 out there with a lob threat. And then another couple people that can drive so, you know, it’s just a dimension of our offense that is always needed and we just need him to be him.”

127.3: That’s the Nets’ defensive rating in crunch time after the All-Star break, perhaps a better indicator of how they fare in close games with this new-look roster. That ranks 27th in the NBA. While it’s only been a fraction of the season, much was made about the Nets’ inability to get stops given the number of defense-oriented players they have after the trade deadline.

The offensive rating in tight games isn’t much better at 102.9, which is 19th in the league. Crunch time is an imperfect stat as each team has a different number of games that qualify for it, and as Dinwiddie has said, the breaks a team gets down the stretch that can change a game can vary by personnel. The Sixers are eighth in crunch time offensive rating and fourth in defensive. In short, if the games get close, the numbers say the Sixers are better equipped to handle it.

16: That’s the number of combined All-Star appearances between Harden and Embiid. The three on the Nets’ roster all come from Ben Simmons, who is out for the rest of the season with back issues and his play hasn’t come close to representing the player that got those three accolades. There’s a clear talent disparity between the two rosters, and for the first time in three years, the Nets won’t have the best player on the court at any point in the series.

Key matchup

Nic Claxton vs. Joel Embiid: Both Claxton and Dinwiddie said Embiid has their votes (if they counted) for MVP this season and the Nets center didn’t shy away at his importance in the series. Claxton is one of only two centers on the roster and Day’Ron Sharpe’s physique — 6-9, 265 — doesn’t change the Nets’ mismatch down low. Sharpe’s lack of postseason experience doesn’t help, either. Nets coach Jacque Vaughn didn’t rule out playing Claxton and Sharpe together — which he did in spurts during the regular season — to try to overwhelm Embiid with two centers on him.

The problem is if Claxton gets into foul trouble it might force Vaughn to play small, which doesn’t address the problems Embiid presents. Claxton said he has some advantages on Embiid, but knows his limits, too.

“Just using my footwork, my quickness, obviously he has however many pounds on me so I’m not going to be able to outmuscle him,” Claxton said. “And then offensively, also just making him work, picking my spots, knowing when to attack and when to get my teammates involved.”

X-factor(s)

Harris, Finney-Smith, Seth Curry or Cam Johnson: There are a few possible answers here as Claxton’s ability to hold his own against Embiid could count, as could Bridges’ offensive output against a defense that is going to see him multiple games in a row. But similar to the defensive concerns, for a team that has a ton of shooting on it, the Nets are just 20th in the league in 3-point field goal percentage since the All-Star break. The Sixers are first. Just as the Nets haven’t been able to get crunch time stops as expected, hitting 3s has been harder to come by, too.

Harris’ postseason struggles have been well-documented, but his role has lessened compared to prior seasons. Does that help? Curry, Finney-Smith and Johnson all have extensive playoff experience, so the moment shouldn’t be too big for them. If the Nets can’t hit 3s, it will likely be a short series. If one or multiple players can get hot from deep and supplement Bridges’ scoring, the Nets could steal a game or two.

Prediction

Sixers in five: Similar to Vaughn’s bubble team in which there was a giant talent disparity between the Nets and the defending champion Raptors (even without Kawhi), the goal should be to avoid getting swept, which this team is good enough to do.

Claxton said Thursday, “Honestly we have nothing to lose going into this series.”

He’s right. There’s pressure on Doc Rivers, a legitimate chance Harden goes back to Houston this summer and the need to capitalize on another great season from Embiid. That doesn’t change the matchup disparities, but it counts for something.

Pushing the series to six games wouldn’t be a huge surprise, but it would mean the Nets had a pretty strong showing, all things considered. It’s hard to see the Nets coming out of the first round barring a Space Jam-esque performance by Bridges, a series-changing injury or a blown lead of epic proportions.