NFL Week 2 Survivor Pool picks: Selecting the Bills, Giants and Cowboys plus strategy

Read The Athletic’s NFL survivor pool picks for Week 11.

Welcome to Week 2 of NFL Survivor! Fortunately, our top Week 1 play, Baltimore, allowed at least 32 percent of you to move on. Other winners included Washington, Jacksonville and Philadelphia, albeit at much lower percentages. Week 1’s biggest losers were Minnesota and Seattle backers, accounting for about 10 and five percent of picks. I, for one, severely underestimated just how bad those Vikings and Seahawks defenses could be. Since the Ravens were the highest percentage pick of the first week, we’ll eliminate them from our pool in the future.

The Athletic betting and fantasy writers Adam Gretz and Renee Miller will guide everyone through the 2023 NFL season and make their picks, analyze the teams and go in-depth on strategy for winning.

Week 2 Strategy

Adam Gretz: There are not anywhere near as many clear favorites in Week 2 as they were to open the season, with San Francisco being the biggest favorite over a Los Angeles Rams team that went on the road and scored an impressive win in Seattle without the services of Cooper Kupp. The 49ers would be tempting, given the line (eight points), but do not burn them this early. Especially on the road against a quarterback like Matthew Stafford that can still make life miserable for a defense. San Francisco will be favorites in most of its remaining games, and it still has two games against Arizona looming, including one in just two weeks. Save them. What Week 2 does offer is an opportunity to use your selections on some second and third-tier teams that you might not want to have remaining in later weeks. It is now or never for some of them, and I am going with two.

Renee Miller: Adam’s right that Week 2 doesn’t offer as many immediately attractive options as we thought in Week 1, as betting sites are accounting for the recent upsets. Spreads overall are much closer, with a few top teams on the road. Only four teams are favored by more than five points: Buffalo, San Francisco, Detroit and Philadelphia. Of those, San Francisco is the only road team, and I may have let slip last week that I have the Niners circled for Week 4 anyway. Expect relatively high percentages on the Eagles, Bills and Lions and consider whether Week 2 is best for you to burn these elite picks. All have favorable rest-of-season schedules per SurvivorGrid, but one stands out to me as the right choice this week.

Week 2 Chalk Pick

Pick projections from OfficeFootballPool. Lines from BetMGM.

Team	Opponent	Pick %
vs. Las Vegas	28.7%	-9
vs. NY Jets	19.1%	-9.5
at LA Rams	12.1%	-8.5
vs. Minnesota	11.6%	-7
at Arizona	9.6%	-5.5

Renee Miller: Bills over Las Vegas

Despite showing some rust in their first game of the season, the Bills are the largest favorite of Week 2, with an 8.5-point spread over the Raiders in their home opener. They’ve been among the most balanced teams in the league over the past few years, finishing as the third-highest-scoring team for the past three seasons. They allowed the fewest points per game in 2021 and last year, despite significant injuries on the defensive side of the ball, allowed the fourth-fewest points per game. Turnovers were a HUGE issue Monday night, as they have been for Buffalo during their recent winning seasons, but I trust this team to clean up the errors over the next week…at least enough to stay ahead of the Raiders and their more manageable defense. Buffalo has some nice matchups later in the season, so if you’re in a large pool, it might make sense to save them (see my alternate below). In smaller pools, the next seven weeks are unlikely to bring as good a matchup for Buffalo as Las Vegas will (they’ll face WAS, MIA, JAX, NYG, NE, TB, CIN in Weeks 3-9).

Adam Gretz: Giants over Arizona

I was really tempted to go with Buffalo as my pick this week, but I don’t trust which Josh Allen is going to show up right now. Over the past year-and-a-half, he has been just as likely to give a game away with turnovers as he has been to light a team up. I can’t imagine he will have a second consecutive four-turnover game, but I want to hold off on picking the Bills until I have a better sense of what they will look like this season. There are also some potential options for them later in the year. So, I am going with what will probably be a good safety pick all year and automatically look at who the Arizona Cardinals are playing. And this week is another really good opportunity to use a team that doesn’t have great future value (the Giants).

I know it might be crazy to pick a team coming off of a 40-0 loss where it was completely humiliated on its home field, and maybe you don’t like the Giants overall this season and think last year was a fluke, but they are better than what they showed on Sunday night. They have to be. They will also be motivated to put a better showing on the field, and Arizona probably isn’t be as competitive as it was in Week 1 against Washington. That is still a razor-thin roster being quarterbacked by Joshua Dobbs with a rookie head coach. They might be doomed for a long year if the Giants can’t win this game. I’m rolling with the bounce-back option against a bad team.

Renee Miller: Cowboys over NY Jets

If Buffalo is too obvious, Dallas has emerged as another safe pick for Week 2. The Jets still have plenty of talent in Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, but with Zach Wilson trying to run the show, the offense is concerning (140 passing yards and a super impressive Garrett Wilson TD catch). Add in the fact that Dallas’ defense has improved in each of the last three years, finishing 2022, allowing the sixth-fewest points per game, and things look pretty bleak for the Jets in Week 2. The defense won them the MNF game at home, but it will be a different story on the road in Dallas. The Cowboys began 2023 by shutting out a Giants team 40-0 in New Jersey. Many of us expected the Giants to pick up where they left off last season, so it’s nice to see that Adam is keeping the faith. At home, Dallas is 29-12 since 2018. Look for them to make it win No. 30 this Sunday vs. the other New York.

Week 2 Contrarian Pick

Adam Gretz: Denver over Washington

Do I feel great about Denver in this spot? Not 100 percent. But if you want to roll the dice and go with a favorite that probably isn’t be a popular pick, taking the Broncos this week might be the way to go. Because when else will you want to pick them again based on their schedule and what they are capable of? Maybe that Week 13 game against Houston is an opportunity. But that same week also has a Pittsburgh-Arizona matchup that would be intriguing if you make it that far (and there probably are not many opportunities to confidently use your Pittsburgh pick before then, so it could very likely still be available).

The Broncos offense picked up where it left off a year ago in a disappointing Week 1 loss to Las Vegas, failing to score more than 17 points for the 12th time in the past 18 games. That is a tough way to win in the NFL. But if they will get a win with that offense, Week 2 against the Commanders seems like a good possibility.

Washington will not score a lot, Sam Howell is still extremely unproven as a starting quarterback, and it barely snuck by Arizona at home in the opener. Taking that offense on the road to Denver will be a real challenge for the Commanders. Even with their issues a year ago, Denver was still 4-4 at home (1-8 on the road), with two of those losses coming in overtime and none by more than a single possession. Mile High is still a brutal place to play.

Renee Miller: New Orleans over Carolina

New Orleans snuck by the Titans in Week 1, on the strength of Derek Carr’s 305 passing yards to Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Michael Thomas. And give a little credit to the Saints’ defense, holding Derrick Henry to only 63 yards on the ground and intercepting Ryan Tannehill three times. They are on the road in Carolina this week in a divisional matchup.…both things I tend to avoid. However, Carolina showed next to nothing on offense, with Bryce Young flailing his way to a 146/1 line with two picks vs. Atlanta, a much less feared defense than New Orleans. Carolina just allowed Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier each an average of over 5.0 YPC, two rushing touchdowns and a total of nine receptions, signs that New Orleans should get more out of Jamaal Williams than he gave in Week 1 vs. the Titans’ stout run defense (third-fewest fantasy points to RBs last season). You’ll be biting your nails until Monday night, but if you want to justify your deviation from a safety pick this week, I think the Saints make a strong case in Week 2.