2023 Stats: .240/.330/.424, 17 HR, 54 RBI

Even before this lingered throughout the entire offseason, Matt Chapman's market always seemed destined to be the weirdest of the big ones.

Top-tier third basemen—Manny Machado, Nolan Arenado, Rafael Devers and Anthony Rendon, the latter of whom at least seemed top tier when he signed his deal—get PAID. As far as AAV is concerned, those are four of the 15 highest-paid players in baseball.

But Chapman isn't on that tier. He has a phenomenal glove, but he's a career .240 hitter who turns 31 in two months and has already lost his slugging prowess from a few years ago.

At this point, even an AAV down in the $20M range to match an Austin Riley, Alex Bregman or José Ramírez might be a bit excessive, especially on a contract spanning at least half a decade.

But $20M is probably on the low end of the range that Scott Boras is seeking for his platinum-gloved client, so here we are.

On the Venn Diagram of "Needs a 3B," "Has at least $20M to spend" and "Realistically expects to contend in 2024," the only plausible intersections are Detroit and San Francisco.

We already have San Francisco getting Bellinger, and though it's possible/likely they could get two of the top four still on the board, the Giants would want one of those signees to be one of the starting pitchers.

So, welcome to the Tigers, Chappy?

Detroit's $92.8M payroll is nowhere close to where it finished each of the past two seasons, with a theoretical $33 million left to spend. However, a big chunk of that was the Miguel Cabrera sunk cost that the Tigers aren't trying to replicate any time soon.

But if they can get Chapman on a five-year, $100 million type of deal, they just might do it.

Chapman's Match: Detroit Tigers