Read the latest edition of Mike Sando’s NFL Quarterback Tiers. 

The recently published 2023 Quarterback Tiers marked the 10th edition of my annual survey of NFL coaches and executives. Below I’ve leveraged 10 years of Quarterback Tiers results into a single ranking of the 35 quarterbacks who appeared most frequently over the past decade.

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This is a Quarterback Tiers all-star team of sorts in that all the quarterbacks were relevant enough to appear at least five times since 2014. The three lowest-ranked quarterbacks have combined to earn more than $150 million. One of them, Geno Smith, earned Pro Bowl honors last season while making the transformation from journeyman backup to solid starter.

No new voting was done to compile this ranking. Instead, I used average annual votes cast over the past decade for players who appeared in the survey at least five times.

To smooth out extremes, I took the median of these averages, excluding from consideration votes for players who had started fewer than 10 games in their careers. This excluded Patrick Mahomes’ first season in the survey, when many voters placed him in Tier 4 as a matter of course because Mahomes had started only one game. The first QB Tiers season for Lamar Jackson and some others were also excluded.

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Tier 1

A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations. He has no real holes in his game.

Mahomes has received Tier 1 votes on 199 of 200 ballots over the past four seasons. He achieved Tier 1 status after only 17 career starts, faster than any player who entered the league since QB Tiers began in 2014. Joe Burrow (26 starts) and Justin Herbert (32) also got there quickly.

NFL exec in 2019: “He is as good as I’ve ever seen. I remember seeing that last game two years ago when he played against Denver, and I said, ‘Ho-lyyy s—!’ We just could not believe some of the throws he was making. It’s ridiculous, and he is only going to get better. How can you not give him a 1? Who is better right now? You would take him over any player in the league.”

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Cooper Neill / Getty

Tiers over time

Rodgers and Tom Brady are the only quarterbacks to achieve unanimous Tier 1 status in four consecutive seasons (a single Tier 2 vote for Mahomes last year prevented him from joining them). Rodgers had received 401 Tier 1 votes (out of 408) before his stock fell this year.

Personnel director in 2017: “His ability to improvise or make plays when the defense is perfectly executed is unique. I’m not a big fan of the ‘arm talent’ term, but some of the throws Rodgers makes, even when you are playing against him, you are just like, ‘Holy s—, what do you do?’ He is very frustrating for a defense because you play everything exactly right and he still just makes a ‘holy s— play’ and it’s demoralizing.”

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Nic Antaya / Getty

Tiers over time

The calculation for Brady excluded votes collected this year in case he returned. He would have ranked sixth overall in 2023, the first quarterback in Tier 2. He earned Tier 1 status eight times in nine previous appearances.

Offensive coordinator in 2019: “Brady is a 1, and I don’t know how you could argue it. People can be critical about his movement or whatever, but just look at the criteria: can carry his team each week, the team wins because of him, he handles pure pass situations and has no holes. Brady plays his best in the most critical situations. Anyone who doesn’t put him as a 1 is evaluating the wrong things.”

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Michael Owens / Getty

Tiers over time

Some perceived Brees to be declining by 2015, and he dipped into Tier 2 once, in 2016. New Orleans ranked first in offensive EPA (expected points added) and last on defense over the 2014-2016 seasons, leading to consecutive 7-9 seasons. As the Saints improved around Brees in 2017, he enjoyed a Tier 1 revival.

Offensive coordinator in 2017: “The guy is dominant. He is a 1. He can throw to win. If they had any defense for the last five years, we wouldn’t even be questioning his ‘1-ness.’ He’d have won another Super Bowl.”

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Cooper Neill / Getty

Tiers over time

Roethlisberger strung together five consecutive Tier 1 showings from 2015-19 before falling off and heading into retirement.

Offensive coach in 2015: “He throws to win games by himself, and he can do it every week. He could throw for 350 every week. I did not give him his due until I really saw this past year, with the average defense and only one top receiver, getting it done every week and keeping his interceptions down.”

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Joe Sargent / Getty

Tiers over time

Tier 2

A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.

On July 22, 2019, we published the QB Tiers featuring Luck as the fifth of eight Tier 1 quarterbacks entering that season. Five weeks later, Luck shocked the NFL by retiring. He appeared in Quarterback Tiers six times and was always in Tier 1 (three times) or Tier 2 (three times).

GM in 2015: “Luck didn’t get a 1 from everybody? You want to talk about a guy who makes the team? He is Michael Jordan. Their defense sucks. Every game, he has to outscore everybody. He is the epitome of a 1. If I was to draft tomorrow any player in the NFL, it would be Andrew Luck one, Aaron Rodgers two.”

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Jim McIsaac / Getty

Tiers over time

Allen has made five appearances in Quarterback Tiers, and his stock has risen every time. All but six of 50 voters placed him in the top tier this year.

Defensive coach in 2021: “He is huge, he sees the field, and his mobility and pure power are really rare for the position. He’s got rare arm talent to access any part of the field. He showed that outside the pocket, he’s got real deep accuracy. He improved dramatically when the pocket is tight. This guy became one of the elite players in the league, regardless of position. He has affected the belief of that team in a big way. They have taken on his personality, his energy, his toughness.”

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Billie Weiss / Getty

Tiers over time

In 2020, Wilson joined Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady as the only quarterbacks to earn unanimous Tier 1 honors. Rodgers has done it six times, Brady did it four times and Mahomes has done it three times. Wilson has subsequently fallen every year, reaching Tier 3 in 2023.

Defensive coach in 2022: “My gut says he is a 2 descending, like some of the stuff that made him special is not quite the same. I don’t know if it was schematic stuff last year, but we played them two years ago and I was like, ‘Yeah, I don’t know.’ Maybe this rejuvenates him. This will be an interesting year for him, a telling year.”

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Steph Chambers / Getty

Tiers over time

Rivers ranked between sixth and eighth overall from 2014-19 before falling off entering his final season. He made one appearance in Tier 1. His best statistical seasons predated Quarterback Tiers.

Head coach in 2018: “I have watched him, and he can still do everything. He is fearless with the ball and doesn’t care who the receivers are. You can put me out there and he is going to come after you. It is ridiculous.”

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Jeff Gross / Getty

Tiers over time

Watson has received at least one vote in four tiers over each of the past two years, reflecting a wide range of opinions for a player with six starts in the past two seasons.

Personnel director in 2023: “That position is the hardest position to play in football, and taking time away takes some things away from you. He has a skill set that could take him back to where he was or close to, but the game hasn’t gotten slower. He is going to have to show he is able to do some of those things again.”

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Nick Cammett / Getty

Tiers over time

Jackson rocketed to the brink of Tier 1 following his 2019 MVP season and has hovered in that range ever since. He has ranked seventh three times in the past four years, commanding Tier 1 votes on 36 of 200 ballots.

Defensive coordinator in 2022: “You cannot go into a game and not account for this guy — like, we are meeting with people every offseason to find out how they would defend this type of offense. At the same time, I can totally see why you can go anywhere from 1 to 3 on him. If he has to drop back and throw the ball, it is not the same, but if he is on rhythm and they are running the ball and they are running the play-action off it, if you can’t account for that dude, he is going to kill you.”

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Mike Carlson / Getty

Tiers over time

Ryan sneaked into Tier 1 by the narrowest margins (26-24) following his 2016 MVP season, but his average tier vote declined annually for his remaining five years in the survey. He landed in Tier 2 eight times in his nine appearances.

Head coach in 2015: “To me, Matt is a poor man’s Tom Brady, without the (team) success. Tom has a stronger arm, but I’m thinking about a guy who is not great getting out of the pocket but is instinctive enough, productive enough, cerebral as hell, gets it, good locker room presence, all that. … I felt Matt was competitive, but I think he was coddled a little bit. I do not think he needed to be. He is not that kind of guy. I think if he had gone to a blue-collar place, it could have been different. I think he’s a 2 who could be a 1.”

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Jared C. Tilton / Getty

Tiers over time

Stafford has landed in Tier 2 every year in 10 appearances, commanding at least one Tier 1 vote in each of the past nine years. He peaked with 18 top-tier votes in 2022, following his Super Bowl-winning season with the Los Angeles Rams.

Defensive coordinator in 2020: “If you landed him in Pittsburgh or San Francisco (instead of Detroit), you’d see a winner. He is going down that Carson Palmer road. Carson never really won until he got late in his career, either. Carson could always throw the ball. He was a first-round pick. He got to Arizona and he made some things happen. Never quite won the big one, but he was still a damn good quarterback.”

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Harry How / Getty

Tiers over time

Manning ranked 14th on average during his six appearances and was volatile enough to command about as many votes in Tier 1 (16) as in Tier 4 (15). When he peaked in 2017 with a 2.05 average vote, there were five votes in Tier 1 and seven in Tier 3. The gap between his regular-season performance and his best postseason performances was difficult to bridge.

Head coach in 2015: “I’ve seen him play some bad football. Based on this scale, to keep it consistent, I think you have to give him a 2. The guy can go win a championship, but if we are talking quarterback evaluation, a 1 can go win it for you every week. Eli has been a 1 the right time of year.”

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Alex Goodlett / Getty

Tiers over time

Prescott spent three seasons in Tier 3 before his current four-year run in Tier 2. But with more votes in Tier 3 (44) than Tier 1 (nine) over that span, he hasn’t threatened to move higher.

GM in 2020: “He really impressed me just with his, he has a little ‘it’ to him. When you watch him live, he doesn’t get fazed. He has better arm talent than you thought. He’s big, he stands strong in the pocket, more accurate than I thought, he can escape, he can buy time, he can create. He is also one of those guys that needs players around him. When the left tackle went down, he was not as good. He is not in the top five that can carry it, but he is a strong.”

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Richard Rodriguez / Getty

Tiers over time

Tier 3

A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best.

Newton was off-the-charts productive during the second half of his 2015 MVP season with 26 total touchdowns, one interception, a 117.2 passer rating and 293 yards rushing. That stretch showed everything he could be. Newton commanded 18 top-tier votes the following year, but only three over the remainder of his five years in the survey.

Quarterbacks coach in 2017: “He is a 2 — he can definitely beat you — but as soon as Father Time catches him, he is going to go down quickly. The guys that stand the test of time have to be right (mechanically) so they can keep their accuracy and keep that lower half working for them.”

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Sean Gardner / Getty

Tiers over time

Flacco was on the decline throughout his seven appearances in Quarterback Tiers. He spent three years in Tier 2, three in Tier 3 and made a final appearance in Tier 4. Flacco peaked with five top-tier votes in 2015.

Head coach in 2015: “Joe is a 2. He can’t do it all, but he can do enough, and he doesn’t do it every week. To me he is like Eli. He can go win the game.”

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Maddie Meyer / Getty

Tiers over time

Wentz hung around the top 10 and was solidly in Tier 2 from 2018-20, but it didn’t last. Voters questioned his feel for the game, decision making and leadership.

Evaluator in 2019: “Wentz just got paid, so if all of a sudden they are 7-9, it is going to be, ’Wait a minute.’ I hope this is not an RGIII situation, but because of the injuries, I think he needs to reconfigure how he plays.”

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Michael Reaves / Getty

Tiers over time

Voters were optimistic on Carr early, with eight placing him in Tier 1 heading into the 2017 season. Carr has spent four of the subsequent five years in Tier 3. The Raiders ranked 32nd in combined EPA on defense and special teams during his nine-year run with the team.

Executive in 2021: “Your eyes tell you he’s a 3 sometimes, but it’s hard to say that when you look at the production. The knock is still that, you pressure him and he’s going to get sped up and he’s going to look anxious at times, but you look at the production and you say, ‘OK, if they could have played functional defense, what’s the record look like?’”

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Chris Unger / Getty

Tiers over time

Cousins has received twice as many votes in Tier 3 as in Tier 2 during his eight years in Quarterback Tiers, without getting a vote in Tier 1. But he did inch into the bottom of Tier 2 this year, his second appearance outside Tier 3.

GM in 2020: “I get it, people say Cousins is a 3, but when I look at the other 3s, there are none of those guys that I think are better. There are games where I have seen Kirk Cousins carry his team. I don’t think he can do it week in and week out. He does need that play-action, zone-stretch, and he needs some weapons. Matt Ryan is the same exact way. If I was choosing, I would choose Matt Ryan, but it wouldn’t be by a lot.”

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Stephen Maturen / Getty

Tiers over time

Goff peaked in 2018 when he was 12th overall and solidly in Tier 2. He is on the ascent again with Detroit, climbing near the top of Tier 3 this year.

Coordinator in 2023: “I gave Jared a 3, and that might be a little low because he played amazing last year. I am giving the system and (Lions offensive coordinator) Ben Johnson more of the love than I am giving Jared. They ran the ball really well, maybe the most creative run game that we looked at last year. If Jared does it again, he would cement himself in my opinion as a 2.”

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Gregory Shamus / Getty

Tiers over time

Smith appeared in Quarterback Tiers five times and peaked in his final appearance, when a single vote kept him from making what would have been his only appearance in Tier 2. That was in 2018.

Head coach in 2015: “At one time, I would have had Alex as a 2, but he has to be a 3 because of his arm talent. He has everything else, but his arm talent, his instincts to throw the ball with anticipation (are lacking). I think it is a product of playing in so many systems. When he was young, I thought he had a chance.”

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Thearon W. Henderson / Getty

Tiers over time

Garoppolo debuted near the border of Tiers 2 and 3 heading into 2018 even though he had started only seven games previously. Voters were not as generous toward his eventual replacement, Brock Purdy, who debuted on the border between Tiers 3 and 4 this year after five regular-season starts.

Quarterbacks coach in 2022: “Jimmy fits that Tier 3 category perfectly. Like you say, a lower-volume drop-back pass offense, lots of movement, lots of play-action, lots of eye candy with fly/jet sweeps. And then you need playmakers around him like he has had in San Francisco.”

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Ezra Shaw / Getty

Tiers over time

Winston’s elevated interception rate was a concern in college and in the NFL, where he might be best remembered as the only player with at least 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in a season. His seven pick-sixes that season are a league record since 1950, according to Pro Football Reference.

Offensive coach in 2022: “I like Jameis because he wants it, he is hungry. I think he works, and it means something to him and he competes. He just is not a great decision-maker, and he is kind of a casual personality. Decision-making improvement is hard to do.”

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Steph Chambers / Getty

Tiers over time

Dalton peaked entering 2016 with a 2.50 average vote that placed him in the bottom of Tier 2, but his average declined from that point through his final Quarterback Tiers appearance in 2021.

Personnel director in 2015: “Dalton can play as a high 3 or a low 3. He has to win with his head and his short accuracy and the pieces around him. They have given him good pieces around him. The injuries at wideout really hurt him (in the playoffs). He cannot carry the load, but he is solid. He is a win-with quarterback, not a win-because-of quarterback.”

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Harry How / Getty

Tiers over time

A GM once joked that Foles “might be the greatest 4 of all time” after leading the Eagles’ playoff push to Super Bowl victory against New England after Wentz was injured.

Personnel director in 2015: “In that Chip Kelly system, once he figured it out, he operated it and did a great job early on. But I do not think he is talented (enough) where he will be that way year in and year out, or week in and week out. He is a little stiff in the pocket. I don’t think he has great arm strength. He has pretty good accuracy. I don’t know that he sees everything.”

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Jim McIsaac / Getty

Tiers over time

Mayfield never ranked higher in Quarterback Tiers than he did after his rookie season. He debuted at the bottom of Tier 2 in 2019, spent three years in Tier 3 and landed in Tier 4 this year.

Exec in 2020: “Baker is a tough one for me. … For him to regress like he did, the stories I’ve heard coming out of there, I think around the right people and with the right structure, he can be a Tier 2. He needed to be in a small town, similar to Norman, and keep a thumb on him. If they do that, he can be a 2. If they don’t, he is going to be a 3 that is going to frustrate you and then his mouth gets him in trouble sometimes.”

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Cliff Welch / Icon Sportswire

Tiers over time

Tannehill made eight of his nine Quarterback Tiers appearances in Tier 3. That is where voters have placed him on 73 percent of ballots.

Former GM in 2020: “Great running game, play-action pass — he’s a good quarterback in that type of system. He’s an Andy Dalton, maybe a little better because he is more mobile and gives you a better element there. Good play-calling, good scheme fit, a strong 3, but you take away the run game, he’s not good enough to get to Tier 2.”

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Cooper Neill / Getty

Tiers over time

Mariota ascended from 2015-17, then fell every year until disappearing from Quarterback Tiers this year. Votes for him in Tiers 4-5 (104) more than doubled votes for him in Tier 2 (42).

Secondary coach in 2019: “The guy could be good if they have a really good defense and they run the ball. If one of those components is not there and he has to start throwing the ball, he can’t.”

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Mike Ehrmann / Getty

Tiers over time

Bridgewater was trending up within Tier 3 when he suffered a catastrophic knee injury during training camp entering the 2016 season. He appeared in Quarterback Tiers three more times without gaining long-term traction with any team.

Personnel director in 2015: “I think he is a 3 right now. He has a lot of confidence, some mobility, some little traits that you like. I just do not think he has a lot of a lot of those traits. He will flash 2, never be a 1 and settle in at being a 3, needing good people around him.”

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Dustin Bradford / Getty

Tiers over time

Bradford never ranked among the top 20 during his injury-marred run in Quarterback Tiers from 2014-18.

Personnel director in 2017: “He gave them a chance, and I thought he was tough and stood in there, took some hits and I thought he had a good year. The ball comes out fast. No problems with the release. I think he needs a running game. You know where he is going to be in terms of planning your rush, taking away some stuff, so I think in his best year with a lot of weapons around him, he can probably play to the 2 level, but on average he is probably kind of a 3 guy that if he had a strong team, you can certainly win with him.”

Photo:

Jamie Squire / Getty

Tiers over time

Taylor spent three years in Tier 3 (2016-18) despite nearly one-third of voters during that period placing him in Tiers 4-5, suggesting they saw him more as a solid backup. Bad luck ended one of Taylor’s final chances to prove otherwise, as a team doctor’s errant needle punctured the quarterback’s lung in 2020, expediting Justin Herbert’s insertion into the lineup.

Defensive coordinator in 2020: “Tyrod is not going to turn the ball over, but he is not going to throw it and he does not throw it (downfield) inside the numbers, the hash, because he can’t see. His intelligence and the way he can run the ball will keep him in games, but he is not going to beat you with his arm.”

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Brett Carlsen / Getty

Tiers over time

Tier 4

A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player (not enough information for voters to classify) or a veteran who ideally would not start all 17 games.

Fitzpatrick appeared in Quarterback Tiers six times with five teams. A quarterbacks coach called the streaky journeyman “a 2 when he’s hot and a 5 when he’s not” — reflective of Fitzpatrick’s penchant for doubling down unsuccessfully.

Defensive coach in 2021: “This guy is just a baller. He’s like a late-career Dave Krieg with a ZZ Top beard. The guy can throw four touchdowns or four interceptions or both. He can fumble the f— out of the ball. He’s the guy who makes you say, ‘I think we can start him,’ and then after about 10 starts, you are not going to re-sign him. Then someone else picks him up and goes, ‘I think we can start him.’”

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Patrick Smith / Getty

Tiers over time

McCown debuted in Quarterback Tiers right after tossing 13 touchdown passes with one interception in relief of Chicago’s Jay Cutler in 2013. That was enough to get him into the bottom of Tier 3 as the 24th-ranked veteran entering 2014.

Evaluator in 2018: “He does play at a high level for stretches. The more you have to play him, the more at risk you are of it going the other way, especially when he tries to run and gets hurt.”

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Rob Foldy / Getty

Tiers over time

Smith resurrected his career in Seattle last season, earning Pro Bowl honors and moving solidly into Tier 3. The seven Tier 2 votes he received this year were four more than Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh McCown received in nine combined Quarterback Tiers appearances.

Defensive coordinator in 2023: “I don’t think what Geno did last year was a fluke. You did see him press a little bit at times, which could be more of a mindset thing. To become a 2, you have to prove it two years. Geno has the ability to do it. I do not expect a big dropoff.”

Photo:

Steph Chambers / Getty

Tiers over time

(Top illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic;
photos: Dustin Bradford, Jim Rogash and Cooper Neill / Getty Images)

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