Raptors’ Pascal Siakam wants to be a superstar — here’s how he could get there

VICTORIA, B.C. — It is lamentable and, frankly, wrong that when the pandemic hit, questions about Pascal Siakam’s work ethic popped up in the discourse. Siakam opened himself up to it when he said he wasn’t able to get on the court during the three-plus-month span between the Raptors’ last game in March 2020 and reconvening at the end of June in preparation for the NBA bubble, but the basketball world could have used it as a moment to express empathy for a player who wasn’t sure of the practicalities of finding a court in the weirdest of times.

If we’ve learned anything over the last few years, of course, it’s that as life has become more difficult for people across all walks of life, our capacity for empathy hasn’t risen apace.

Pardon the tangent. Oh yes, Siakam: A player’s growth cannot be one of the most stunning success stories in the history of individual development without that player not only working hard, but finding joy in doing so.

“I enjoy the process of getting better and knowing that, before I couldn’t do something and now I can do it,” Siakam said Monday in Toronto. “That process of the game is so important to me. And having the opportunity to do that while healthy, it was amazing. I just get lost in it.”

Said Siakam’s teammate, Khem Birch, on Thursday: “Pascal’s one of the hardest workers I’ve ever seen — ever. When he wakes up in the morning, I don’t even think he eats breakfast or stretches. He works out for hours before practice, practises, and then works out for another hour after practice. I’ve never seen anything like it.”

That effort leads to the self-belief that typical developmental curves do not apply to him. Siakam turns 29 in January, which would be an unusual time to become a better player. Different? Sure. Better? Again, it’s the rare player who can do that.

“It’s time to take another step. I always do that,” Siakam said. “And I try every game to take a step up. I think for me, after the year that I had, just accomplishing that level of play — I’ve been All-NBA, I’ve been an All-Star, I wanna be a top-five player in the league. I wanna be one of the best, and I’ll do everything I can to make that happen.”

Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo and Pascal Siakam. (Stacy Revere / Getty Images)

A quick scroll through the league lets you know just how difficult that would be. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, Joel Embid, Nikola Jokic, Stephen Curry — that’s five guys. Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Jayson Tatum, Kawhi Leonard, Ja Morant — that’s five more. We could go on.

Despite making the All-NBA cut in two of the last three years, Siakam wouldn’t crack the top-15 list, assuming full health, that most experts would make. ESPN ranked him 30th overall. In The Athletic, Seth Partnow ranked him in his “tier 3C,” putting him between 25th and 32nd. CBS had him 24th. Those lists aren’t objectively correct, but they do a good job of representing where the consensus stands right now. There is a path, however, for Siakam to put himself in the MVP conversation.

It happened with Devin Booker and, for a while, DeMar DeRozan last season, two players you wouldn’t have expected to be in that company that last October. It starts with the Raptors having tremendous success, but Siakam has enough of a track record that he could wind up there as the best player on a very good team.

“Obviously, I have goals individually, but that doesn’t matter until we get to a point where we’re a top team in the league or we’re up there,” Siakam said Thursday.

Sure, the whole provides context for the individual, but the individual helps determine what the whole can amount to, too. For Siakam to get closer to his ceiling, and the Raptors to get closer to theirs, there are a few obvious things to improve upon.

Fine-tune his shot selection

Of the 40 players who averaged at least 20 points per game last season, Siakam finished 25th among them in true shooting percentage. That’s not awful, but that relative lack of efficiency at the highest volume on the team, which is a big reason why the Raptors were so lacklustre generally in that facet, is what separates him from those great players.

Let’s start with Siakam’s former teammate, DeRozan. The Bulls swingman hit just 50 3-pointers all season, 25 fewer than Siakam in eight more games and third-last on the list of 40. However, he also had the fifth-highest free throw-attempt rate. Siakam was in the middle of the pack, at 21st. Siakam and the Raptors would argue he deserves more calls, but when you take 29 percent of your shots from between 10 feet and the 3-point arc, that’s going to be difficult to accomplish.

Siakam’s free-throw rate was .314 last season, just off his career-best mark of .320. His ballhandling may free him up to get to the line more often, but it would have to be a notable jump from what he’s done before. On the other hand, we’ve seen his 3-pointer be better than it was last season.

Of the 15 All-NBA players last season, only two — DeRozan and Nikola Jokic — took fewer pull-up 3s than Siakam’s 35. Nobody shot worse than his 25.7 percent on those shots.

2021-22 All-NBA team, pull-up 3s

Player	All-NBA Team	Pull-up 3PA
First	255	35.7
First	492	35.8
First	178	27.5
First	383	33.4
First	34	32.4
Second	417	37.4
Second	136	33.8
Second	23	30.4
Second	154	40.3
Second	90	35.6
Third	525	37
Third	139	30.2
Third	223	33.6
Third	35	25.7
Third	55	45.5

In 2019-20, Siakam shot 34 percent on 150 of those attempts. Those numbers would have ranked eighth and ninth, respectively, among last season’s All-NBA players.

“I didn’t shoot the 3-ball like I wanted to, something that I’m working on every single day — finding different ways to be effective to score,” Siakam said Thursday.

Get even more involved in the pick-and-roll game

Siakam used 405 possessions in isolation last season, near the very top of the league. He scored in the 61st percentile on those plays, so it was not necessarily a bad thing. The Raptors often hunt for mismatches, which will produce a fair number of isolations. (They should maybe scale that style back a bit on the whole, but that has less to do with Siakam in particular.)

What’s shocking when looking at Siakam’s play-type breakdown: He finished only 55 possessions as a pick-and-roll screener. That’s natural for someone who has the ball in his hands as often as he does, but Siakam’s efficiency was in the 82nd percentile on those plays. He has the fluidity, grace and soft hands to excel in that — pun intended — role.

This is where the development of Scottie Barnes could be huge for Siakam. If he has another pick-and-roll partner other than Fred VanVleet on the floor with him, especially one with the size to make more passes than a shorter guard, Siakam could tap into different aspects of the game. When you finish plays as a screener, you typically get closer to the rim, and draw more fouls, too.

“There’s not anything on the court he can’t do,” VanVleet said. “(We need to) find ways to support him, put him in positions to be great and continue to lead us.”

Scale up defensively

Siakam does not need to be the stopper on the Raptors. Between Precious Achiuwa, O.G. Anunoby and Barnes, the Raptors have at least three players who should see plenty of minutes who could be better one-on-one defenders than him.

Siakam often fills the role of 3-point contester in the Raptors’ switch-heavy, protect-the-paint defensive schemes. Unless you’re Chris Boucher, that’s probably not going to result in a ton of defensive statistics — blocks, steals or even deflections. Only three players contested more than Siakam’s 277 efforts against 3s last season.

There isn’t a great way to quantify this, but Siakam’s defensive force, defined by his length and his lateral quickness, just needs to be more of a factor. An ounce more anticipation might mean those attempts go down because Siakam gets there a half-tick earlier. If he defends down the positional spectrum in bigger lineups, his abilities should allow him to be a key part of trapping ballhandlers.

The advanced defensive metrics weren’t particularly kind to Siakam in 2021-22, but they generally cannot capture the rather thankless task he has in a system that allows a lot of 3-point attempts. Siakam is a good defender on a good defensive team. There is the possibility that he can become a great defender on a great defensive team.

Embrace his role further

Siakam probably took too many midrange shots last season. However, the positive in that is it prepares him to be aggressive in the playoffs, when the Raptors need him to operate without fear in games that generally feature fewer opportunities in transition.

Siakam’s usage percentage went down from the regular season to the playoffs. On the other hand, it was at an all-time playoff high for him, as was his efficiency. His assist percentage was above his previous playoff efforts. His free-throw rate, .336, was higher than in the regular season. As the series against Philadelphia went on, Siakam showed the assertiveness that had been missing in his previous playoff appearance in the NBA bubble.

“He’s always been a nice guy,” said Rico Hines, a first-year Raptors assistant coach and Siakam’s longtime summertime development coach. “And now he’s becoming a little bit meaner. You know what I mean? And that’s good. We want (players) to continue to grow in that aspect because that’s what it takes for you to be one of the elites, is just his mentality. That’s been a big thing: It’s just his mentality of being addicted to being great.”

(Top photo of Siakam: Bill Streicher / USA Today)