Redrafting the 2022 NBA Draft class: Is Paolo Banchero No. 1? Where does Chet Holmgren land?

The NBA regular season has come and gone, which means it’s a good time to dive into what happened with the rookie class, an incredibly fun group that, in my opinion, features remarkable depth and a high number of potential long-term starters who could be impact playoff players.

Entering the season, I thought the 2022 draft class was not particularly great at the top but featured some solid depth in terms of role players. I didn’t end up having a Tier One grade on any singular player but thought the group through No. 21 on my board was quite strong. Those players encompassed the players in the top four tiers on my draft board. And indeed, even after a year of data, 17 of those 21 players are featured below in this redraft. That feels like a solid performance, even if some players have skyrocketed up the board in that process.

Here, I’m going to redraft the top 20 based on how I would rate them now. It’s worth noting, in all caps, THIS IS NOT A RANKING BASED ONLY ON HOW THEY PERFORMED AS ROOKIES. Rather, it’s a ranking based on where I’d rate them on how they performed this year, how some of the holes in their game translate toward being patched up and how they figure to grow and mature. This is a future-based ranking using past samples as data, including this year as the most important sample, but also previous data that I’ve collected over years of scouting them, as well as placing a premium on positional value.

For instance, I would have voted Walker Kessler in my top three for Rookie of the Year this season. He was incredibly impactful for the Utah Jazz. That does not mean I would take him over someone like Jaden Ivey, who I think possesses immense upside as a creator long term and who showed tangible growth in highly important areas that could make him a genuine star. All things being equal, All-Stars and superstars who can create their own shot are the players who move the needle. Kessler has immense upside still on defense, but guys who have that kind of ceiling on the ball are the ones you take the shot on if you have the opportunity to pick them. That remains true here. That’s how you take your team to the next level.

Without further ado, here is a redraft of the 2022 NBA Draft that will assuredly make every fan base extremely happy and not at all result in me fleeing from the internet to shield myself from the takes in the comment section and my Twitter mentions.

The answer has to be Banchero at No. 1 if only because of the offensive upside he’s shown. No rookie has shown more potential to be a No. 1 option for a team down the road. Banchero averaged nearly 20 points, seven rebounds and four assists per night, but more importantly, he did it as the guy who is at the top of scouting reports every night for Orlando. With all due respect to Franz Wagner, who is probably a more complete player at this stage, Banchero is the one teams put their best opposing defender on because of the mismatch problems he creates. He’s 6-foot-10, 250 pounds and has the handle of a guard. He plays with both pace — being able to change speeds and create his own advantages — and force. He draws fouls at an elite level for a young player. But most importantly, he sees advanced passing reads already and is quite impressive in dealing with doubles and different coverages. The issues with Banchero’s game are twofold. First, his jumper has been extremely inconsistent. He has good touch, but his mechanics need some work. Second, like many rookies, he needs to improve defensively and become more of a presence there. But Banchero has real potential to give his team extreme marginal advantages at both the four and five positions due to his mix of fluidity, coordination, power and skill. Even though I think one other rookie has more upside than Banchero, we should feel certain Banchero is going to be a very high-level player for years to come.

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Banchero, Kessler among NBA All-Rookie Team

Williams is the player who most quickly spiked up the board this year. He already looks like a potential star next to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. His full-season numbers look a bit more pedestrian than you’d think, averaging 14 points, four rebounds and three assists. But the second-half leap has NBA personnel jealous that they didn’t buy into Williams as a lottery pick like the Thunder did. Over his last 20 games, Williams averaged 19 points, six rebounds and four assists while shooting 55 percent from the field, 45 percent from 3 and 88 percent from the line. More importantly, he did it amid the Thunder’s surprising push for the Play-In Tournament. Beyond the numbers and winning, Williams just looks like a future All-Star out there. At 6-foot-6 with a 7-foot-2 wingspan, he does most of his damage inside the arc, with a weird mix of old-school tricks and new-school drives on well-spaced courts. He finishes both below and above the rim. His ability to extend his arms and finish gives him an enormous advantage, especially when mixed with his handle and touch. Most importantly though, Williams makes the right play every single time while maintaining productivity. He hits passing reads with ease. Defensively, he takes on tough assignments. He’s the kind of complete player whom teams search high and low for to pair with a superstar. Players who produce at this kind of efficiency are typically All-Stars in the future. That’s why Williams jumps his teammate below him in this redraft. We have too many positive indicators about what he will be in the future.

3. Chet Holmgren | 7-0 big | Oklahoma City Thunder | original selection: No. 2

This is where the fun starts and where I expect some push-back. I’m still all-in on Holmgren and debated slotting him in at No. 1 here after ranking him as my No. 1 player in the class pre-draft. There is no higher-upside player in this class, and there is a real chance I feel dumb in a year’s time if Holmgren immediately steps in and becomes the guy I think he’s going to be. Outside of his frame, which seems to be improving in his year out of action due to a foot injury suffered over the summer in a pro-am event, Holmgren is as complete a player to enter the NBA in a while. He has elite size and length measurements as a 7-foot center with a 7-foot-6 wingspan. He is an elite rim protector, using unbelievable anticipatory skills to be able to make a consistent impact. He can slide his feet a bit and guard out in space and was an elite help defender for a young player. On offense, he can actually handle the ball out in transition for his size, he’s a sharp passer particularly in high-low situations away from the rim, and he has potential to hit over 40 percent from 3. He fits every single box the Thunder look for as an organization that has prioritized plus positional size, length, skill and basketball IQ. To put the cherry on top, Holmgren’s work ethic seems not to have slowed down, and he’s one of the most competitive players I’ve evaluated in the decade I’ve been doing this, itching to get back on the court. The only reason I don’t have him at No. 1 is simply the question over how the frame holds up long term. For the two players above him, I just had to default to what they’ve already shown. But don’t get it twisted: If Holmgren hits, he’s going to be the best player in this class.

4. Jaden Ivey | 6-4 guard | Detroit Pistons | original selection: No. 5

Ivey is kind of the end of a tier for me. I’m a strong believer in his upside. After starting the season poorly, I was incredibly impressed by Ivey’s growth throughout the course of the season. At Purdue and through the first part of his season in Detroit, Ivey was going 100 miles per hour, trying to beat everybody to the rim and not slowing down to see what was going on around him. However, the grown in the second half of the season was stark. He played much more often off two feet, using a skip step in ball-screen actions to string defenders out and force help defenders to make decisions. This is a big part of why Ivey’s assist rate skyrocketed in the second half of the season. He averaged 16 points, over five assists, and about four rebounds while shooting nearly 42 percent from the field, 34 percent from 3 and 75 percent from the line. The finishing is still in question, but he has also added more of a game in the midrange as the season went along. The Pistons knew Ivey wouldn’t be a finished product upon reaching the NBA. They knew he needed more reps in ball screens and more experience to be able to learn how to attack NBA-caliber defense because he just didn’t get to a run a wild number of them in college at Purdue. For him to be processing all of this and figuring this out on the fly is incredibly impressive. As long as his finishing improves and he continues to improve from the midrange, Ivey has every potential to reach the All-Star ceiling scouts thought he had entering the draft.

This is just a bet, and I get that it might look wild on its face. For a large portion of the season, Sharpe was flashy but not quite effective. He posted some highlight-reel plays that made the rounds on social media, and he consistently hit spot 3s. But he was very limited early on, basically just sitting in the corner, running the break and cutting baseline to try to find open angles and passes. Defensively, he was all over the map, still learning on the job while playing his first games above the high school/AAU level. But by the end of the season, Sharpe was a different dude, the kind whose athletic tools were starting to pop in an enormous way after a year’s worth of skill development in the NBA. In Sharpe’s final 10 games of the season, he averaged 23.7 points, 6.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists versus only three turnovers while shooting 46 percent from the field and 38 percent from 3 while taking on an enormous role within the offense. The Blazers only won two of those games, but I’m not sure it really matters. For Sharpe to have showcased this kind of immense upside — even in the last month of the NBA season, where games are frankly not really all that indicative of high-leverage basketball — is incredible. The learning curve he was on throughout the early portion of the season was immense. For him to come around by the end of the season and post an efficient 24/6/4 line in a 10-game stretch completely blew my mind. And it was the culmination of full-season growth. Over the 17 games prior to that 10-game explosion, Sharpe averaged nine points while shooting 51/40/76 in 21 minutes per night. He was getting better.

If I were redrafting this class, I just don’t think I could pass on Sharpe beyond this point. His upside athletically is too great, and he can be the kind of athletic, dynamic shot-creating wing whom every NBA team dreams of. My guess is that this ranking looks silly almost no matter what in five years. Sharpe is either going to drastically exceed this and be an All-Star, or he’s going to be much worse. But in an NBA where superstars are the ones who move the needle, Sharpe’s close to the season showcased more star upside than any stretch of games from any of the players ranked below him.

I was higher on Sochan than most entering the draft, having him No. 6 on my board. I’ve seen no reason to move off that rating. Outside of his shooting, Sochan remains everything teams look for in a high-level developmental prospect. He has genuine size at 6-foot-9 with a massive wingspan, and he’s willing and able to take on tough on-ball defensive assignments in addition to playing strong help defense. Offensively, Sochan took the on-ball reps he was given this year and really blossomed. Over his last 17 games, he averaged almost 16 points, six rebounds and three assists while making good decisions and expanding his game. On top of that, he played this entire season as a teenager at 19 years old. He and Zion Williamson are the only players to play a majority of their rookie seasons as teenagers and average 11 points, five rebounds and two assists while shooting 45 percent from the field. If you expand it to include 20-year-olds, you still only get 21 names. Outside of the players to do this in the last two years (Evan Mobley, Josh Giddey, Alperen Şengün and Scottie Barnes), the other 16 players all went on to make an All-Star team in the future. Sochan feels like a reasonable bet to do the same, given how advanced he is defensively and how well his skill set game profiles into where the game is going long term. He is a cleaned-up shot away from stardom.

I had Murray a bit lower than this on my board pre-draft, even though I expected him to be able to come in and impact the NBA earlier than most other rookies as a more-developed 22-year-old. Indeed, Murray was quite good on a terrific Kings team this season, averaging 12 points and five rebounds while shooting 45 percent from the field and 41 percent from 3. I thought he got better defensively as the season went on and was an impact player in the playoffs. Murray averaged 10 points and six rebounds while shooting 48 percent from 3 in the playoffs, playing 28 minutes and proving he can stay on the court in big moments. Most importantly, after three difficult playoff games, Murray improved drastically in the final four, averaging 15 points and eight rebounds while shooting over 51 percent. Murray looks exactly like what was expected of him pre-draft. I compared him to Tobias Harris before the draft, and I still feel like that is the most likely outcome: a player who is super efficient offensively, can occasionally create his own shot and not be a sieve defensively in big moments. Harris had a five-year stretch from 2017-22 when he averaged 19 points, seven rebounds and three assists while shooting 48 percent from the field, 39 percent from 3 and 85 percent from the line. I think that’s probably the ballpark for Murray, with a peak of averaging 20 points per game at some point. I’d rather take a flier on the greater upside of the players above him, but I think there is a case for him as high as No. 3 if you think his shot creation has a little more juice than I’m projecting.

Smith had a rough year. But I’m still buying in and believing in his long-term potential. He falls here from where I had him ranked pre-draft, but his end-of-season run offers some real reason to think positively. An elite shooter throughout his career in high school and college, Smith shot just 30.7 percent from 3 this season. In 52 games from Halloween through March 1, Smith shot just 39 percent overall and 27.8 percent from 3 with more turnovers than assists. Throughout the year, it seemed like Smith struggled with his role. The team didn’t run much for him, and he was largely stuck hanging out in the corners while guys like Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. dribbled around. But Smith also didn’t take advantage of his opportunities as they came early either. Things came together by the end of the season, though. In his final 20 games, Smith averaged 16 points and eight rebounds while shooting 47 percent percent from the field and 37 percent from 3. This is the guy the Rockets thought they were drafting when they picked him at No. 3. On top of that, Smith was relatively useful throughout the year on defense, providing length, switchability and a help-side presence when necessary. I’m a little worried about the on-ball creation upside, which is something I thought he would bring to the table by virtue of some of the elbow actions you might be able to run for him where he shoots over the top of defenders with his high release point. But he’s a bit further away than I thought as a ballhandler, and I thought he was pretty far away from making an impact there and as a passer pre-draft. Still, Smith is 6-foot-10, I’m a believer in the shot, and I buy the defense. I think the worst-case scenario remains that he is a starter who helps you win playoff games as a role player.

Jabari Smith Jr. (Troy Taormina / USA Today)

9. Walker Kessler | 7-1 center | Utah Jazz | original selection: No. 22

The biggest riser so far, Kessler was about as good a rim protector I’ve seen as a rookie in the near decade I’ve been covering the NBA. I had him as a top-three finalist for Rookie of the Year. He was one of the three most impactful rookies in the league this season on winning, and he did a phenomenal job earning his minutes by simply being a polished and comfortable defensive big. His technique in drop coverage in ball screens is top notch. He’s better than you think in space because of his short-area quickness and overall fundamental defensive awareness. So why does he not rank higher here? I’m a little bit skeptical of the overall offensive package at this point being a bit limited. He is an incredibly efficient finisher, but he doesn’t create a ton of his own opportunities. He’s not necessarily as limited as someone like Mitchell Robinson — the 10.8 points per game Kessler averaged in his final 53 games after entering the rotation full-time is more than Robinson has ever averaged — but I don’t see him getting into the 15 point-per-game area either. In general, I still prefer to draft wing over big given the overall positional versatility and flexibility of those players in playoff settings. However, more and more, we have found that high-level defensive bigs who can play in drop are harder to keep off the floor in playoff settings as long as they attack the glass and can be good in screening settings offensively. Look at guys like Robinson, Robert Williams and Kevon Looney. Kessler should be a top-10 defensive center long term, and he’s another leap away from being a potential Defensive Player of the Year candidate. That has immense value, even in its limitations. That’s why he moves up into the range of guys with real creation potential.

I liked Mathurin quite a bit pre-draft and continue to be a fan. And after his incredible start to the season, it was very easy to jump on the bandwagon of him being a potential All-Star long term. Mathurin averaged 19.2 points while shooting 43 percent from the field and 40 percent from 3 over his first 21 games. From that point forward, Mathurin was very inconsistent and quite inefficient as a whole. Up until a final surge in his last seven games, Mathurin averaged just 15 points on a relatively low effective field goal percentage over the middle 48 games. He was also quite messy on defense this year and has a long way to go on that end — and that also goes back to his time at Arizona. Mathurin’s upside is probably a bit higher than Kessler’s or Murray’s, but I thought their seasons overall were much better. I ended up not ranking Mathurin as a first-team All-Rookie guy despite the counting numbers, having him as my No. 6 overall rookie this year.

11. AJ Griffin | 6-6 wing | Atlanta Hawks | original selection: No. 16

I was pretty stunned that Griffin got pulled from the Atlanta rotation after Quin Snyder took over, as he’d been a useful floor-spacer surrounding Trae Young and Dejounte Murray throughout the early portion of the season. Griffin averaged about nine point per game this season and shot 47 percent from the field, 39 percent from 3 and 89 percent from the line. In every way imaginable, Griffin came through on the immense shooting potential he showcased at Duke and throughout his time at lower levels. More importantly, I also thought Griffin showcased much better athletic pop for the Hawks than he did at Duke, when he coming off an early season knee injury. He regained some of the explosiveness as a straight-line driver that made him one of the top prospects in the 2021 recruiting class prior to a few other high school injuries. As long as Griffin stays healthy, he’s going to be very valuable. The Hawks beat teams this season by 2.2 points per 100 possessions when he was on the court and actually lost their minutes when he was off the court. Griffin is the kind of skilled, bigger floor-spacer whom every team is looking to acquire. The Hawks have one.

12. Jalen Duren | 6-11 center | Detroit Pistons | original selection: No. 13

Duren is a fascinating player I’m still struggling to wrap my head around a bit. The best moments this season were quite high-level. Duren is a physical marvel at 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan and a chiseled 250-pound frame. He is all sorts of bouncy athletically. He’s one of the best rookie rebounders to enter the NBA in the last decade, maybe since the last Pistons star center, Andre Drummond. Duren averaged 3.4 offensive rebounds in under 25 minutes per night, and his rate-based rebounding stats saw him rank in the top-10 percent of all rotation centers league-wide in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate, per DunksAndThrees.com. In general, he’s an efficient finisher, making over 70 percent of his shots at the rim this season, even if he only made 50 percent of his layups, per Synergy. Layups matter less when you can dunk everything like Duren can. There are also some real, latent passing flashes here. So why does Duren, a teenage center who started 31 games this season, rank so low? I’m a little worried about some of the defensive signs we saw. I didn’t love his help defense around the rim, and I thought his defense in ball-screens left a lot to be desired. These are the two factors that will determine whether Duren can be a high-leverage playoff performer or just a statistical accumulator. He has a real chance to be the former, which is why I still rank him in the lottery of what has turned out to be an incredibly deep class of potential starters. If things really break right, Duren could be an All-Star. But the floor is a bit lower here in terms of overall impact if he doesn’t iron out some of those defensive concerns.

I’m a big believer in Daniels long term, and his drop to No. 13 is not a reflection of me selling any stock in him. This rookie class, however, is quite deep with long-term starters. Daniels is an impact on-ball defender with all sorts of length at the point of attack, disruptive to the max. He’s sharp rotationally and constantly makes his presence felt in help and scramble situations. Ultimately, I think he’s a little further away from being impactful offensively than I’d hoped he was when he was selected by the Pelicans in the top 10. He takes a long time to get off his jumper. Long term, it’ll probably be fine. But it might take a few years. On the ball, Daniels is a great ball-mover and decision-maker. But he needs to be able to consistently get penetration to break down the defense and take advantage of his skills. He did not get a chance to run a ton of ball screens this season due to his role, which is the place he excelled best in his pre-draft sample. Getting more of those chances will be huge. But for Daniels to play, the jumper will need to improve to get the most out of his minutes next to Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram.

Williams was terrific once he got into the rotation in Charlotte. He played just three of the Hornets’ first 33 games. but then he played 40 of the next 49 and averaged nine points, seven rebounds and 1.1 blocks while shooting 64 percent from the field. He started 17 of those games, and in those games, he averaged 12 points and 10 rebounds with the Hornets defense showing late-season improvement in part due to his presence. Opposing teams had a 55.2 effective field goal percentage with Williams off the court and a 51.7 effective field goal percentage with him on it. He contested about nine shots at the basket per 36 minutes, a large number for even some of the top centers in the league. But arguably, he was even more impressive as a rim runner and play finisher, where he best utilized his absurd wingspan to operate out of the dunker spot and out of ball screens. He’s also a terrific offensive rebounder who grabbed 2.2 in 19 minutes per game. Williams looks like a solid starting center sooner rather than later. The next step in his journey will be improving in ball-screen coverages and proving he can stay out on the court in high-leverage situations, something he didn’t even have a chance to showcase this season.

15. Tari Eason | 6-7 wing | Houston Rockets | original selection: No. 17

Eason was as productive of a rookie outside of the top four this season, and he did so with sheer activity. I’m not sure there was a rookie whose motor ran hotter more consistently than Eason’s. He filled the box score every night in just 21.5 minutes per game, averaging 2.4 offensive rebounds, 1.2 steals, 0.6 blocks, an assist and also 9.3 points per game. Eason is going to play in the NBA for over a decade simply because he outworks everybody. The reason he doesn’t come higher here largely has to do with his overall skill level right now. He was one of the worst finishers in half-court settings in the league, shooting just 44.2 percent, per Synergy, along with a putrid 38.2 percent on attempted layups. On top of that, Eason only went 5-of-24 on pull-up jumpers this season and only made 33.9 percent of his catch-and-shoot jumpers despite the fact that nearly 70 percent of them were classified as “unguarded” by Synergy, a number that was in the 20th percentile league-wide. That 33.9 percent mark was fourth-worst among those other players in the 20th percentile of guys who don’t get guarded from 3, behind just Russell Westbrook, Jalen Smith and Herb Jones. The skill level has to drastically improve for Eason to be a difference-maker in the playoffs. But if he can do that — heck, if he can even just consistently make a catch-and-shoot 3 — the ceiling is through the roof due to his length, strength and versatility.

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The Athletic's NBA All-23-and-Under mock draft

The final rookie to be playing real rotation minutes among the final eight teams in the playoffs, Braun has been terrific in the moments he’s played this season. The perception of Braun’s game has been all wrong, going back to the time at Kansas. Braun gets this reputation as being a shooter, but in reality, he’s an athletic energy wing who sprints out in transition, attacks the rim on cuts and is aggressive on the defensive end. He’s an excellent all-around player who is extremely reliable already for a Denver team that desperately needed another wing to step up into its rotation. In the second half of the season, while Denver chased a No. 1 seed and tried to solidify its rotation, Braun averaged 6.6 points and three rebounds in 18 minutes per game while taking advantage of his chases at a really high level, shooting 51 percent from the field and 39 percent from 3 on limited volume. He takes advantage of his opportunities and doesn’t make mistakes. On defense, he’s sound and steady rotationally within complex help settings. Braun is going to be a very valuable playoff performer for a long time.

Hardy is an upside swing, the first second-rounder to hear his name called in this redraft. I was higher on Hardy pre-draft than where he was taken, ranking him N0. 20 on my board. And while Hardy didn’t really get much of a chance in the first half of the season, playing only 14 games in the Mavericks’ first 41, he worked his way into the rotation by the end of the year and began to stand out due to his shooting and creation ability from the combo guard position. From Feb. 4 onward, Hardy averaged 12.1 points and 2.2 assists in 20 minutes per game while shooting 46.1 percent from the field, 46.8 percent from 3 and 81.6 percent from the foul line. The former top high school prospect showcased even more explosiveness and athleticism than we saw in the G League, especially in transition but also attacking bigs with real blow-by ability in the half court. He still needs to clean things up in terms of decision-making, and his overall finishing numbers were not that strong, having made about 51 percent of his shots at the basket. But he’s a great shooter off the catch, and his pull-up game remains lethal for a player who played his entire season at 20 years old. He might not end up being more than a terrific sixth man, but he has a shot to post a season or two where he averages 20 points per game, much like Jordan Clarkson did this season for the Jazz. The only issue with Hardy is that, if he doesn’t reach that insanely high offensive threshold over volume, he’s going to provide a bit less value than the guys such as Braun above him.

Jaden Hardy (Jerome Miron / USA Today)

18. Andrew Nembhard | 6-5 guard | Indiana Pacers | original selection: No. 31

Another second-round pick who emerged this season, Nembhard started the season quite well and entered the starting lineup for a solid (at the time) Indiana Pacers team that competed for the first half of the season at a high level. Nembhard was often tasked with tougher assignments defensively and handled them at a reasonable level for a rookie. Offensively, his ability to run ball screens, knock down 3s at a 35 percent clip and move the ball along the perimeter helped the Pacers. Nembhard is not your run-of-the-mill smaller ballhandler. He’s a 6-foot-5 guard who is a bit harder to pinpoint in mismatches when he’s lined up on defense due to that size. He tossed up more than a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio as a rookie and looked pretty comfortable out there. There’s a non-zero chance that, with further growth, he could turn into a lower-end starting point guard. But even if he doesn’t, it’s easy to envision Nembhard and his ability to process the game and shoot as a good rotation player on winning teams for a while.

19. Ochai Agbaji | 6-6 wing | Utah Jazz | original selection: No. 14

Agbaji started the season quite poorly for Utah and didn’t quite look like a rotation player — a very startling realization given Agbaji’s age. He played this season at 22 years old as one of the older rookies. However, by the time the post-All-Star break timeline rolled along, Agbaji really figured some things out. He was a solid rotation player, even if the team was less concerned about wins and losses following its deadline moves. He took 3s at volume, attempting nearly seven per game while starting the team’s final 20 contests. He averaged 13 points in that time. The only issue is that he made just 33 percent from 3 and 39.5 percent from the field, on top of not really contributing to other statistical categories given that he was playing about 30 minutes per night. Agbaji essentially continues to look a bit limited in terms of his overall game off the bounce, but the Jazz should be heartened by the fact that he started to become a bit more aggressive in transition and as a cutter. Long term, Agbaji looks like a very solid rotation player. That much is safe. Athletically, he has enough juice that he could keep along his late-bloomer pathway going back to high school and grow into a starter. But at the very least, he’ll help Utah long term.

20. Malaki Branham | 6-5 guard | San Antonio Spurs | original selection: No. 20

Branham was hit or miss for the Spurs. He had some really positive moments in terms of shot creation, especially to start 2023. February, particularly, was his best month, including a stretch of nine games where he averaged about 19 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the field and 41 percent from 3. But his overall close to the season was quite inefficient as his shot abandoned him a bit. Branham is a bit midrange-heavy for my liking as a scorer. He finished just slightly above Nembhard in terms of percentage of shots attempted at the rim in half-court settings, per Synergy, at about 21 percent. He makes them when he gets there, but he needs to be able to pressure the rim a bit more. He also needs to continue improving as a decision-maker and passer. Eventually, he needs to be able to knock down shots from distance. And most importantly, he needs to prove he can guard anyone effectively, something that has been a problem for him going back to Ohio State. Branham has some real craft in ball screens to be able to get away from his man, and I really like the way he attacks closeouts aggressively off the catch. But this season he looked like a better version of Jaylen Nowell long term — a valuable rotation scorer but maybe not quite a starter without some real improvement. The good news? He has a lot of time, and San Antonio should give him some freedom to figure it out.

Others

Johnny Davis, Washington Wizards | original selection: No. 10: Yikes. Davis had a rookie season to forget. He didn’t just struggle in his minutes with the NBA team; Davis also struggled in his G League minutes, averaging just 12 points and 1.7 assists in 27 minutes per night while shooting only 40 percent from the field and 33 percent from 3. It’s worth noting that injuries played a real role. He suffered groin and hip issues early in the year that put a damper on him growing. The Wizards will need to hope that he turns it around with a strong offseason.

Ousmane Dieng, Oklahoma City Thunder | original selection: No. 11: Dieng would probably be No. 22 for me. I was a little lower on him than a few teams were pre-draft after seeing him up close here in Australia during his stint with the New Zealand Breakers. He’s a big ballhandler, which tends to be the skill set I love. But I’m a little worried with his athletic explosiveness, and I think he’s got a ways to go as a shooter. But Dieng was always a project, so this is fine from the Thunder’s perspective. He wasn’t expected to be a difference-maker in Year 1.

Dalen Terry, Chicago Bulls | original selection: No. 18: Terry was always going to be a physical project, as he’s a 6-7 wing who was very skinny. He’s also struggled to shoot it early on throughout his career. But Terry was always an energy-first, defensive wing who would need some skill development. His G League season was pretty average, but he did provide the overall impact expected, averaging seven rebounds, 4.5 assists and 1.4 blocks per game in those settings.

Jake LaRavia | original selection: No. 19; David Roddy | original selection: No. 23 | Memphis Grizzlies: The Grizzlies took LaRavia and Roddy in the first, prioritizing LaRavia in a trade-up with the Timberwolves and Roddy in a trade with the 76ers that saw them send out De’Anthony Melton. I was extremely low on Roddy pre-draft, ranking him barely as a top-60 player in the class. He at least was able to play minutes in the playoffs for the Grizzlies, using his physicality and strength to make an impact. LaRavia was not, but he played well in the G League this year averaging 18 points and shooting 46 percent from the field and 37 percent from 3 on high volume. I think I’d still bet on both being solid rotation players.

David Roddy (Alonzo Adams / USA Today)

MarJon Beauchamp, Milwaukee Bucks | original selection: No. 24: Beauchamp would be within the next five players on this list. He is an aggressive, high-motor player. I’m just a little worried about his skill level still. Beauchamp needs to shoot 35 to 37 percent from 3 to reach his ceiling as a high-value role player. This season, he was at 33 percent, which honestly was better than I expected from him after his year with the Ignite. I buy him getting there and being a low-usage, solid rotational wing.

TyTy Washington, Houston Rockets | original selection: No. 29: I still like Washington. He was quite good in the G League this season, averaging 23 points and dishing out six assists with a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Having said that, he struggled enough in his NBA minutes in terms of efficiency and has some potential issues defensively. I like his processing speed and his overall game as a complementary guard, but I was too high on him ranking him as a top-15 player.

Peyton Watson, Denver Nuggets | original selection: No. 30: Watson played only 186 minutes this season for the Nuggets, but I think he’d actually be my No. 21 player here. He showcased some real defensive tools in the minutes he played, then averaged 20 points, seven rebounds and three assists in the G League. He was terrific as an all-around player in those games. He’s only 20 years old and is a late bloomer who is developing still physically. I think there is a chance I look back on this with regret for having him this low. There’s a chance I write about him as a potential breakout guy this summer.

Max Christie, Los Angeles Lakers | original selection: No. 32: I really liked what I saw from Christie this season, and he’d be my No. 24. Christie is a really high-level shooter and hit 42 percent from 3 in his limited minutes. But I also really liked his defensive movement skills as well, particularly with how he flies off screens and stays attached to shooters. I’d bet Christie becomes a rotation player next season for the Lakers.

Christian Koloko, Toronto Raptors | original selection: No. 33: Koloko looked terrific in moments defensively this season, showcasing real upside on that end due to his length and rim protection. The Raptors defense was better with him. He just has such a long way to go offensively, even on the scale of Mitchell Robinson as a potential low point in terms of usage. Koloko needs to expand his comfort with the ball as well as continue to improve his hands. Koloko has lower-end starter upside as a center if things break right for him on that end.

Jaylin Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder | original selection: No. 34: The Thunder’s starter at center for the last portion of the season, Williams did a great job of handling the role. He is a terrific positional defender who led the NBA in charges taken this season by 10. He’s also a sharp defensive rebounder and knocked down 40 percent of his 3s. He looks like the kind of guy who will play in the NBA for a decade. Obviously given that he started 36 games this season, Williams has that kind of upside. But he probably profiles best long term as a third big. He’d be No. 23.

Jabari Walker, Portland Trail Blazers | original selection: No. 57: Finally, let’s show some love for Walker, who had a few high-level moments this season. I really like the way he moves without the ball. He’s a sharp cutter and aggressively runs the court in transition. Defensively, he has some switchable moments and athletically looks like he belongs.