Anything can happen at this time of year, but the reported trade discussions involving star position players such as Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette and Astros third baseman Alex Bregman seemingly are more a reflection of the lack of quality hitters available than the potential foundations of deals.

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Teams are asking because teams always ask, inquiring about virtually every player. But it doesn’t mean conversations are progressing.

The Blue Jays are getting calls on first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as well as Bichette, according to major-league sources who were granted anonymity in order to speak freely. However, it makes little sense for the Jays to move either star when they are under pressure to win and believed to be pursuing Shohei Ohtani. Granted, neither Bichette nor Guerrero has signed a contract extension, and both are two years away from free agency. But good luck to the Jays finding a replacement at Bichette’s level for 2024, or one with the promise of Guerrero.

The Astros’ position with Bregman is slightly different. He is due $30.5 million next season in the final year of his contract, and the team likely will lose him as a free agent. Still, it’s difficult to imagine the Astros taking a step back coming off their seventh straight appearance in the ALCS. Replacing Bregman’s offense, defense and leadership would be next to impossible. And the Astros have been down this path with star position players before, keeping Carlos Correa and George Springer until their club control expired, then losing them as free agents.

With Soto, just do the math

Unlike Bregman and Bichette, Juan Soto is almost certain to be traded, both to ease the Padres’ payroll burden and get them the pitching they desperately need.

MLB Trade Rumors projects Soto’s salary in his final year of arbitration to be $33 million. The Padres intend to open the season with a payroll of approximately $200 million, and Fangraphs projects their current number with Soto to be $189 million. Their projected luxury-tax payroll of $242 million, meanwhile, is $5 million above the threshold.

So let’s get this straight: The Padres are going to exceed the threshold a fourth straight year? Just after, as The Athletic reported earlier this month, they took out a $50 million loan in September to address short-term cash flow issues and meet their obligations, including player payroll? And at a time when their pitching staff has been decimated by free-agent defections?

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Six pitchers who combined for nearly 700 innings with the Padres last season — Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez, Luis Garcia and Josh Hader — are on the open market. A Soto trade not only could replace some of those innings, but also create the financial flexibility to add even more pitching.

The question is not whether Soto will be traded. The question is which team will acquire him.

White Sox’s Cease in heavy demand

The lack of controllable starting pitching available in a trade increases the likelihood the White Sox will extract a monster return for right-hander Dylan Cease, who can be retained through salary arbitration for two more seasons.

More than a dozen teams have inquired on Cease, with the Dodgers among the most aggressive, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and others have reported. The Dodgers’ projected rotation, at present, consists of Walker Buehler coming off Tommy John surgery, Bobby Miller, Ryan Yarbrough, Emmett Sheehan and Ryan Pepiot.

The Dodgers’ farm system remains strong; they had a trade with the Tigers in place for left-hander Eduardo Rodríguez at the deadline, but the deal collapsed when the pitcher invoked his no-trade rights. They also pursued Cease at that time, according to The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya.

Cease would have commanded far more than Rodríguez then as a likely two-month rental, and also would command far more now. It remains to be seen which team will have the greatest appetite for such a deal.

Giolito one to watch

As mid-tier free-agent starters such as Kenta Maeda, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson come off the board, right-hander Lucas Giolito looms as a rather interesting case.

Giolito, who turns 30 on July 14, is the youngest domestic starter on the market after lefty Julio Urías, who was placed on administrative leave in early September after being arrested for suspicion of a felony charge of corporal injury on a spouse. Giolito also offers the durability teams are seeking, ranking eighth in the league in innings pitched over the past six seasons.

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The problem for Giolito is that he pitched poorly after getting traded to the Angels and then Guardians last season, producing a 6.96 ERA in 63 1/3 innings after starting out with a 3.79 ERA in 121 innings for the White Sox. His strikeout rate was the league’s 16th best, his walk rate the eighth worst. And he allowed 41 homers, most in the AL.

So, what kind of deal can he expect? The Athletic’s Jim Bowden predicted two years, $24 million. MLB Trade Rumors had him at two years, $44 million.

A three-year deal with multiple opt-outs could be another possibility. So might a longer deal with a lower AAV and single opt-out, similar to the five-year, $77 million contract Rodríguez signed with the Tigers, then opted out of after two years.

And finally …

Fans in Oakland feeling abandoned by the A’s might take a small measure of solace in the announcement Tuesday of a new team in their city — the Oakland Ballers, or B’s, who will play in the independent Pioneer League.

The team’s founders are Paul Freedman, an entrepreneur, and Bryan Carmel, a veteran writer/producer/showrunner. The B’s say they have raised $2 million in seed funding, working closely with fan leaders from the “Sell the Team” movement on their vision for the club.

Former Mariners and Rangers manager Don Wakamatsu will be the team’s head of baseball operations. Former outfielder Micah Franklin will be the manager, former pitcher Ray King the pitching coach.

GO DEEPER

Rosenthal: Rangers' free agency uncertainty, Yankees' payroll and White Sox's options for Cease

(Illustration: The Athletic; Photos: Kirby Lee, Kevin Sousa and Matt Blewett / USA Today)