Russia 'won't be able to advance for six months'
David Craig Russia will not be able to advance in Ukraine for at least six months, an imprisoned former officer who played a key part in the invasion of the Donbas in 2014 has claimed.
Igor Girkin, a pro-war nationalist, wrote in a letter from prison to his wife that the Russian position is “gradually deteriorating” because of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.
The former FSB officer was arrested in July on charges of extremism after publicly accusing Vladimir Putin and military leaders of not pursuing the war in Ukraine harshly enough.
In the letter dated to 26 October, Girkin argued that Russian forces would remain “incapable of any broad offensive actions” even if Ukraine failed to “knock out” their frontline units.
“Girkin’s suggestion that ongoing Russian offensive operations are harming the prospects for future Russian operations is notable because Russian forces still must repel Ukrainian offensive operations while attempting to initiate their own offensives,” the Institute for the Study of War think tank said.
That's it for today
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Today's key moments
These are the key moments from the war in Ukraine today:
- The Russian Navy could relocate its warships further from the frontline after Ukraine crippled a Crimea-docked cruiser in a missile strike, the MoD said
- Russia withdrew from a Cold War-era arms control treaty, with Nato condemning the move and also pulling out in retaliation
- Ukrainian military intelligence believes Russia is stockpiling missiles for mass strikes on its power grid during sub-zero winter temperatures
- Russia commenced three days of naval exercises with Myanmar
- A Ukrainian minister insisted the top military aide who died after his birthday present exploded was not assassinated
- Volodymyr Zelensky cancelled a planned visit to Israel after the trip was leaked to a TV channel
Ukraine rebuilds 421 medical facilities destroyed by Russia
Ukraine has fully repaired 421 medical facilities and partly restored a further 413 damaged by Russia in the war, the Ukrainian Ministry of Health has announced today.
Since the beginning of the conflict in February 2022, the ministry states that Russia has damaged 1,468 medical facilities in Ukraine and completely destroyed an additional 193.
The most significant rebuilding has been seen in the cities of Dnipro, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and Mykolaiv.
Notably, the Mykolaiv Regional Children’s Clinical Hospital, which was damaged at the beginning of the war, has been fully repaired.
Zelensky cancels Israel visit after plans leaked to TV channel
Volodymyr Zelensky cancelled a visit to Israel planned for today after the trip was leaked to an Israeli TV channel.
The Ukrainian president was set to visit the country on Tuesday for a second time until news of his plans was briefed to Israel’s Channel 12 news.
Israeli officials insisted that the trip has only been postponed but no date has been set.
A Ukrainian diplomat previously told The Times of Israel that Mr Zelensky was “very disappointed” by the leak.
Zelensky plots extension to Ukrainian gas export ban
Volodomyr Zelensky has proposed extending Ukraine’s ban on exporting domestically produced natural gas until the end of 2024.
First introduced in February 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the ban has already been extended once to cover 2023.
Ukrainian energy minister Herman Haluschenko has previously stressed the importance of its gas for domestic power generation because of the impact the war with Russia has had on coal production.
Russia's withdrawal from arms limit treaty strengthens Nato, says US
Russia’s withdrawal from the arms-limiting Treaty of Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) will strengthen Nato, the US has said.
Nato announced today that its members will pull out of the treaty in response.
US national security adviser Jake Sullivan has said doing so strengthens Nato’s “deterrence and defence capacity by removing restrictions that impact planning, deployments, and exercises – restrictions that no longer bind Russia after Moscow’s withdrawal.”
Russia’s withdrawal “further demonstrates Moscow’s continued disregard for arms control,” he added.
The Kremlin pulled out of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019 and suspended its participation in the New START Treaty - the only remaining arms control pact between them - in February.
Pictured: In the trenches
Top US officials push Congress for $11.8bn in new Ukraine funding
Top officials from the US government have written to congressional leaders today to back a further $11.8billion in new funding to Ukraine.
In a letter published today, secretary of state Anthony Blinken, defense secretary Lloyd Austin and secretary of the treasury Janet Yellen wrote that the multibillion dollar package is “the minimum amount needed to help cover Ukraine’s baseline needs”.
They said Ukraine is spending more than 100 per cent of its total tax revenue on the war and that it is “entirely dependent on outside support to keep the government and economy functioning.”
The signatories also sought to reassure congress that the package will come with an “unprecedented level of robust oversight and transparency … and will be conditioned on Ukraine making essential reforms.”
Samantha Power, USAID administrator, also signed the letter.
Ukraine officer killed in birthday explosion was not assassinated, minister says
The top Ukrainian military aide who died on Monday when his birthday present exploded was not assassinated, interior minister Ihor Klymenko has said.
It was initially unclear when the news broke on Monday night if Major Gennadiy Chastiakov, an advisor to commander-in-chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, had been a victim of Russian foul play.
But Klymenko said on Tuesday that Chastiakov actually died in a tragic accident at his home in the village of Chaiky, west of Kyiv.
Chastiakov was said to have been showing his family six grenades a colleague had given him as a 39th birthday gift when his son took one and began twisting the ring.
“The serviceman then took the grenade from the child and pulled the ring, leading to a tragic explosion,” Klymenko said, adding that Chastiakov’s son is seriously injured.
Police are investigating the incident. Chastiakov was married and had four children.
In pictures: Russia conducts naval exercises with Myanmar
Russia and Myanmar are conducting joint naval exercises in the Andaman Sea over the next three days.
Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov, head of the Russian navy, met the country’s junta leader Min Aung Hlaing on Tuesday aboard the Russian destroyer Admiral Tributs.
The two countries are close allies. The junta has described Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as “justified” and has imported $406million in arms and equipment from Russia since seizing power in February 2021.
It is the first time the two countries have done combined drills.
Pictured: Man kneels by makeshift memorial for fallen Ukrainians
Ukraine deploys new air defences ahead of winter bombardment
Ukraine has deployed new western air defence systems as it braces for a second winter of Russian attacks on its energy grid.
President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed the deployment of additional Nasams mobile surface-to-air missile launchers.
“I received reports on the receipt of ammunition, hardware and equipment over the past day,” he said on social media
“Additional Nasams systems from partners have been put on combat duty. Timely reinforcement of our air defence before winter.”
A prolonged campaign of Russian strikes last winter left thousands of Ukrainians without heating or electricity in freezing temperatures.
Russia set to encircle city in eastern Ukraine
Russian forces are set to encircle a Ukrainian city at the third attempt after two failed assaults.
The eastern city of Avdiivka, just six miles from the Russian-controlled city of Donetsk, is surrounded by the Russian army to the north, east and south.
Vitaly Barabash, head of Ukraine’s military administration in the city, believes that Russian forces will advance as soon as the weather allows.
“The third wave will definitely happen. The enemy is regrouping after a second wave of unsuccessful attacks,” Mr Barabash told AFP.
Avdiivka has been almost completely destroyed by nine years of fighting but around 1,500 of the city’s 30,000 pre-war residents remain, living mainly in basements converted into bomb shelters.
Russian warship badly damaged in missile strike in Crimea
The first pictures of a Russian warship struck by Ukrainian missiles in occupied Crimea have revealed the severe damage it sustained in the attack.
SCALP missiles, the French version of the Storm Shadow, hit the Russian vessel stationed at the Zalyv dockyard in the port city of Kerch on Saturday.
The Askold is a newly-built small Karakurt-class warship armed with eight Kalibr cruise missiles that was reportedly going through its final fittings at the harbour before being commissioned into the Black Sea Fleet.
The British Ministry of Defence said the strike on Crimea’s shipbuilding infrastructure “will likely” force Russia to consider relocating further away from the frontline.
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Kremlin confirms Putin will visit Kazakhstan on Thursday
The Kremlin has confirmed that Vladimir Putin will visit Kazakhstan on Thursday.
The two leaders will meet in the Kazakh capital, Astana, to discuss a range of matters including “current regional and international problems,” it said in comments reported by state news agency TASS.
It will be only Putin’s third known trip abroad since the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for him in March for war crimes, which the Kremlin strongly rejects.
Kazakhstan is not a signatory to the ICC. Neither are China and Kyrgyzstan, the two other countries Putin has visited recently
First Dutch F-16s sent to Romania to train Ukrainians
The first batch of Dutch F-16 fighter jets were sent to Romania on Tuesday to train Ukrainian pilots.
The Netherlands has promised to loan between 12 and 18 F-16s for use in a new European F-16 training centre in Romania, its defence ministry said.
Romanian and Ukrainian pilots are expected to be the main beneficiaries of the training site.
The centre’s opening date has not yet been announced.
The Dutch have also promised to deliver F-16s to Ukraine to use in battle. Denmark, Norway and Belgium have made similar pledges.
'Ukraine has completed four of seven steps for EU membership talks'
Ukraine has completed four of the seven steps required for it to start talks on joining the European Union, according to a European Commission document obtained by Radio Free Europe.
The Commission, which is the EU’s executive body, is expected to issue a positive assessment of Ukraine’s progress on Wednesday.
The document suggests that the Commission’s criteria for the vetting and selection of judicial appointments has so far been met, in addition to changes to Ukraine’s anti-money laundering and media legislation.
However, Ukraine is yet to fully meet standards on corruption, de-oligarchisation and the protection of national minorities.
Russia stockpiling missiles for mass winter power grid strikes
Russia is stockpiling missiles for mass strikes on Ukraine’s power grid this winter, Ukrainian Army intelligence believes.
Vadim Skibitskyi, deputy chief of defence intelligence, told RBC Ukraine that the Russian armed forces are waiting for sub-zero temperatures to hit before launching a bombardment against energy infrastructure.
This would coincide with the increased demand for gas and electricity brought on by the cold temperatures “when there is a greater load on our power system,” Skibitskyi said in remarks reported by the Kyiv Independent.
Temperatures in Kyiv are currently unseasonably warm.
Russia repeatedly targeted Ukraine’s energy grid between October and April last year, damaging 70 power facilities.
Ukrainian civilian injured after stepping on mine in his garden
A 42-year-old civilian was injured in a liberated Ukrainian village after stepping on a mine in his garden.
The man, who has not been named, suffered shrapnel wounds to his arms and legs after detonating an anti-personnel mine in Rubizhne in the country’s north east, the Kharkiv Oblast administration said.
The village is just 12 miles from the Russian border and was occupied in the first days of the invasion before being liberated in May 2022.
In early October, landmines were said to have killed 250 people and injured more than 500 in Ukraine since the war began in February 2022.
In full: Nato condemns Russia's treaty withdrawal
Nato has issued the following statement in response to Russia’s withdrawal from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe overnight.
Allies condemn Russia’s decision to withdraw from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), and its war of aggression against Ukraine which is contrary to the Treaty’s objectives.
Russia’s withdrawal is the latest in a series of actions that systematically undermines Euro-Atlantic security.
Russia continues to demonstrate disregard for arms control, including key principles of reciprocity, transparency, compliance, verification, and host nation consent, and undermines the rules based international order.
While recognizing the role of the CFE as a cornerstone of the Euro-Atlantic security architecture, a situation whereby allied states parties abide by the treaty, while Russia does not, would be unsustainable.
Therefore, as a consequence, allied states parties intend to suspend the operation of the CFE treaty for as long as necessary, in accordance with their rights under international law. This is a decision fully supported by all Nato allies.
Allies reiterate their continued commitment to reduce military risk, and prevent misperceptions and conflicts.
Allies strive to build trust and confidence, based on key principles of transparency, compliance, verification, reciprocity and host nation consent, thereby contributing to peace and security.
Allies invite those states that share this commitment and these principles, to join our efforts to also contribute to increasing predictability and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area.
Allies remain united in their commitment to effective conventional arms control as a key element of Euro-Atlantic security, taking into account the prevailing security environment and the security of all allies.
This complements the alliance’s deterrence and defence posture that allies have decided to further strengthen.
Allies will continue to consult on and assess the implications of the current security environment and its impact on the security of the alliance, and on our approach.
Allies will make use of Nato as a platform for in-depth discussion and close consultation on arms control efforts.
Nato suspends arms limits treaty after Russia pulls out
Nato has announced the formal suspension of a key Cold War-era treaty on arms limits after Russia pulled out.
“A situation whereby allied state parties abide by the Treaty, while Russia does not, would be unsustainable,” Nato said.
Russia withdrew from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) at midnight, citing its “fundamental security interests”.
It had previously suspended its participation in the treaty in 2007, halted active participation in 2015 and Vladimir Putin issued a decree in May denouncing it.
The treaty, signed in 1990, limited the amount of military equipment Nato and then-Warsaw Pact countries could deploy to prevent either side building up their forces ahead of a potential invasion.
The frontline in pictures today
Pictured: Damage to Russian warship struck by Ukrainian missiles
Russia puts musician on international wanted list
Russia has put a member of protest music group Pussy Riot on an international wanted list for spreading “fake” information about the armed forces.
Lyusya Shtein, 27, fled the country in March 2022 after escaping house arrest dressed as a food delivery man.
TASS, the state news agency, cited a source in a Moscow court who said she would be arrested immediately if she ever re-enters the country.
It did not say what information about the armed forces Shtein was accused of spreading.
Pussy Riot is an anti-Putin feminist performance art and punk rock group which came to prominence in the early 2010s.
Pictured: Ukrainian soldier's funeral
Russian cable under the Baltic sea damaged
A Russian fibre optic cable under the Baltic Sea was damaged last month, the state company which operates it has confirmed.
Rostelecom said the damage to the cable between Russia and Kaliningrad, its Baltic exclave, was first detected on Saturday 7 October.
It did not respond to questions about the cause of the outage, Reuters reported.
A gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia and two telecoms cables connecting Estonia with Finland and Sweden were damaged on Saturday 7 and Sunday 8 October.
Ukraine now has more soldiers than Russia, Girkin claims
Igor Girkin also wrote that Ukraine now has more manpower in the field than Russia.
The imprisoned former Russian Army officer and pro-war nationalist made the claim in the same letter to his wife, which was dated to Thursday 26 October.
He wrote that mobilisation has slowed in Russia and is unlikely to accelerate in the run up to the presidential election due in March 2024.
Girkin also argued that the Russian Army has “exhausted the recruitment potential for new contract servicemen and volunteers,” the Institute for the Study of War said.
Ukraine would also be “seriously strengthened in military-technical terms” if it is armed with more western military equipment, such as F-16 fighters, he added.
Russia will not advance in Ukraine for six months, claims imprisoned Donbas officer
Russia will not be able to advance in Ukraine for six months, an imprisoned former Russian Army officer who played a key part in the invasion of the Donbas in 2014 has claimed.
Igor Girkin is a pro-war nationalist and former FSB officer who was arrested in July on charges of extremism after publicly accusing Vladimir Putin and the army’s top brass of not pursuing the war in Ukraine harshly enough.
In a letter published by his wife, Girkin wrote that the Russian position is “gradually deteriorating” and that the Ukrainian counter-offensive is keeping them penned in.
Girkin argued that Russian forces will continue to be “incapable of any broad offensive actions” even if Ukrainian forces are unable to “knock out” Russian frontline units.
“Girkin’s suggestion that ongoing Russian offensive operations are harming the prospects for future Russian operations is notable because Russian forces still must repel Ukrainian offensive operations while attempting to initiate their own offensives,” the Institute for the Study of War think tank said.
Israel-Gaza will not affect West's support for Ukraine, says Japan
Western support for Ukraine will not waver as the conflict in Israel and Gaza intensifies, Japan has said ahead of a G7 summit.
Foreign ministers from the group’s seven countries - Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States - are meeting in Tokyo on Tuesday and Wednesday.
They plan to hold virtual talks with Dmytro Kuleba, their Ukrainian counterpart.
“Our commitment to continue strict sanctions against Russia and strong support for Ukraine has not wavered at all, even as the situation in the Middle East intensifies,” Yoko Kamikawa, Japan’s foreign minister, told a press conference.
The G7 is now weighing up whether to impose sanctions on Russian diamonds.
In pictures: Cats, dogs and soldiers on the Ukrainian frontline
Ferret armoured car pictured in action in Ukraine
A British-made Ferret armoured car has been pictured on the frontline in Ukraine.
The donated vehicle was in use with the Ukrainian 3rd Armoured Brigade in late 2022 or early 2023, according to the Telegram account which posted the image.
The identity of the soldier posing next to the vehicle is not known.
Ferrets were used by the British Army for reconnaissance between 1952 and 1991 and were manufactured by Daimler between 1952 and 1971.
The vehicles remain in active service with a number of countries around the world, including India, Nigeria and Indonesia.
We shot down 17 drones this morning, says Russia
Russia shot down 17 Ukrainian drones over the Black Sea and occupied Crimea, Moscow’s defence ministry said.
It accused Kyiv of using them to attempt a “terrorist attack” early on Tuesday morning.
“Anti-aircraft defences destroyed nine Ukrainian drones and eight others were intercepted over the Black Sea and the territory of Crimea,” the ministry said.
Falling debris has left one man in a serious condition but there was no other damage, said Mikhail Razvozhayev, the Russian-installed governor of Sevastopol.
Gennadiy Chastiakov in pictures
Pictured: Ukrainian major blown up by booby-trapped birthday present
The Ukrainian officer who was blown up by a booby-trapped birthday present on Monday has been pictured for the first time.
Major Gennadiy Chastiakov, an aide to commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, was killed when a grenade exploded among his birthday gifts.
“My assistant and close friend, Major Gennadiy Chastiakov, was killed... on his birthday,” Zaluzhnyi said, adding that police had identified a fellow soldier who gave the fatal gift.
Chastiakov was showing his son one of the grenades moments before the explosion, Interior Minister Igor Klymenko added.
“At first, the son took the munition in his hands and began to turn the ring. Then the serviceman took the grenade away from the child and pulled the ring, causing a tragic explosion,” Klymenko said.
Mr Chastiakov leaves behind a wife and four children.
Polish truckers 'stab Ukraine in back' by blocking border crossings
Several dozen Polish haulage companies were accused of stabbing Ukraine in the back after blocking three major border crossings on Monday in a protest against unfair competition.
“The blocking of the roads to the border crossings between Poland and Ukraine ... is a painful stab in the back of Ukraine, which is suffering Russian aggression,” Ukraine’s ambassador in Warsaw, Vasyl Zvarych, wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
Truckers from Ukraine have not needed permits to cross into Poland border since the Russian invasion in February 2022.
The protestors - who blocked crossings at Hrebenne, Dorohusk and Korczowa - want to reinstate the restrictions to limit what they see as unfair competition.
They have compared themselves to farmers who won concessions from the government after complaining about a flood of cheap Ukrainian grain imports.
Russia pulls out of Cold War arms treaty
Russia has pulled out on a landmark Cold War security treaty which limited the amount of military equipment Nato and then-Warsaw Pact countries could deploy.
The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) was signed in 1990 to prevent either side building up their forces ahead of a potential invasion.
Russia suspended its participation in the treaty in 2007, halted active participation in 2015 and Vladimir Putin issued a decree in May denouncing it.
Russia’s foreign ministry said the treaty was now “history” after it formally withdrew at midnight.
“Even the formal preservation of the CFE Treaty has become unacceptable from the point of view of Russia’s fundamental security interests,” it said.
Zelensky rules out 2024 election
Volodymyr Zelensky has ruled out holding an election because of the ongoing war with Russia.
All elections – including the presidential vote set to take place next spring – are technically cancelled under martial law that has been in effect since the conflict began last year.
But a debate has been intensifying in Ukraine about holding a vote in 2024.
“We must decide that now is the time of defence, the time of battle, on which the fate of the state and people depends,” Zelensky said in his daily address on Monday evening
He said it was a time for the country to be united, not divided, adding: “I believe that now is not the (right) time for elections.”
Russia could relocate warships after Crimea strike, says MoD
Russia could relocate its warships further from the frontline after Ukraine’s strike on the Zalyv shipyard in Kerch, according to the Ministry of Defence.
In its latest briefing, the MoD the attack was “further to the east in Crimea than most previous Ukraine-claimed long-range strikes”.
It said: “As reported by Ukrainian and Russian sources, on November 4th, 2023, a newly built Russian naval corvette was almost certainly damaged after being struck while alongside at the Zalyv shipyard in Kerch, occupied Crimea.
“The Karakurst-class Askold, launched in 2021, had not been commissioned into the Russian Navy.
“The incident is farther to the east in Crimea than most previous Ukrainian-claimed long-range strikes.
“Ukraine’s capability to hit Crimean shipbuilding infrastructure will likely cause Russia to consider relocating farther from the front line, delaying the delivery of new vessels.”
Welcome to the live blog
Good morning and welcome to The Telegraph’s live blog on the war in Ukraine.
Tim Sigsworth is guiding you through the day’s events.
