Let’s take a look at the hitters who, according to Statcast batted ball data, should have the highest averages. Again, this isn’t to say these expected stats are necessarily predictive any more than actual batting average is right now. Use the expected stats to reset your view on how these players are actually hitting to date (Tuesday, May 3). In other words, just pretend the expected average is the real one. Statcast expected stats factor in things like trajectory and exit velocity.

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Some players who are actually hitting well will be more fluke than fact and some will be more fact than fluke. Same for those who are hitting poorly. I’ll always mention at least one player who is generally widely available in mixed leagues. But I’m not focusing just on those players. Obviously, we want data on the players who are not on waivers, too, since we should constantly be assessing the current value of everyone on our rosters.

Let me start with someone who is widely rostered, was generally a second-round pick, but who is presently underrated. Luis Robert has an expected batting average of .358 with an expected slugging of .748. He may be the best hitter in fantasy and is certainly in the Top 5. Yet his actual OPS is .684. Here are his strikeout rates from 2020 to 2022, in order: 32.2%, 20.6%, 14.6%. He hit .338 last year and should be hitting at least that now. And given he doesn’t walk, his batting average is much more valuable. His managers probably don’t know how good he’s hitting given those actual stats.

Robert is actually fourth in expected average (essentially tied for third with Wander Franco). Above him is Alec Bohm at .374. Most impressively for Bohm, his expected ISO (expected slugging minus expected average) is a very good .261 (nearly 100 points better than average). So he should hit at about a 25-homer pace going forward if this expected ISO is reasonably predictive.

Then there is Joc Pederson, who obviously has platoon issues and who has never hit for a top average. His K% is 21.4% (career 24.2). His hard-hit rate is always very good but this current 61% clip is clearly not sustainable. He has only three PAs versus lefties (5.4%). This makes him hard to roster in shallow leagues. I said, and I still maintain, that he’s basically Kyle Schwarber, sans the strict platoon. The Giants are platoon crazy, though, so we can’t expect Pederson to get a chance against lefty starters.

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Jonah Heim is the waiver-wire recommendation. He’s actually hitting .364 and Statcast says it should be .342. He has seven walks and three Ks. He’s a 96th percentile framer. The pandemic interrupted it, but he actually started to hit in Triple-A in 2019: .359/.412/.557. It was only 119 PAs though, in hitter-friendly Las Vegas. He was a fourth-round pick; the fifth round is the cutoff for confirming that scouts thought he was good as an amateur. He’s 19% rostered in Yahoo leagues. I think he should be rostered in every two-catcher format and most one-catcher leagues, at least as a reserve, in case this is real. I’m mostly leaning into the walks and Ks. Also, Mitch Garver is hitting very poorly (see below).

I think Jesse Winker managers are nearing a breaking point in non-OBP leagues. But his expected average is .322 (.181 actual). If you roster him, just pretend he’s a .300 hitter right now. Discipline yourself into not trading him. If you don’t roster him, try to get him with the old, “I need an outfielder, do you have anyone you’re willing to trade?” You have to let them say Winker. Is it the shift? Well, his actual wOBA with the shift (65% of PAs) is .228 (horrible); but he’s killed the shift every other year (.421 last year).

Nelson Cruz? Look, the circus leaves town eventually for everyone. The trucks are packed and running for Cruz. He should be hitting .240 with a .423 slugging. That’s actually worse news because it suggests his power is gone.

Whit Merrifield managers are rightfully panicking. He should be hitting .258. Looking more deeply, his expected average last year was .263. With his speed and batted-ball profile, he usually comes in about 15-to-20 points over expected so figure he’s a .275 hitter right now (and probably going forward).

Here are the players who are actually hitting far better than they’re expected to be hitting, and are, thus, sell highs:

Andrew Benintendi (expected .261, actual .367), Steven Kwan (.267/.340) and Chris Taylor (.248/.304). That’s about it on the guys you can probably trade as much better hitters than they have been expected to be. The point isn’t regression. It’s that they actually should be hitting for a far lower average right now.

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Here are players generally rostered in March who are expected to be hitting about as terribly as they actually are: Luke Voit, Akil Baddoo, Wil Myers, Paul DeJong, Jarred Kelenic, Joey Votto, Franmil Reyes, Marcus Semien, Salvador Perez, Joey Gallo, Justin Turner, Ketel Marte, Max Muncy and the aforementioned Garver. Man, that is a graveyard for March fantasy dreams right there.

For those still playing every day, I would generally hold. It’s still very early. Basically, hitting well right now matters more to me than hitting poorly. The reason: hitting is very hard, so it’s harder to hit well for reasons that are purely random, especially when we factor in the expected stats.

(Top photo: Stacy Revere/Getty Images)