The 12 Best Picture Contenders of Christmas

After a rush of post-strike campaigning, awards season will power down for the holidays, returning with the Golden Globes on January 7. So rather than deliver our usual up-down judgments, let’s get into the Christmas spirit by running down the 12 awards ho-ho-hopefuls with the best chance of nabbing Oscar’s Best Picture.

Tier One: The Presumed Front-runner

Oppenheimer

A somber, Oscar-friendly biopic that also happens to be a big honking hit, Oppenheimer has occupied the top spot in pundits’ predictions since the late summer. Still, it’s not always beneficial to be the front-runner this early, especially in the era of the preferential ballot, in which “most likable” often beats “greatest achievement.” Notably, critics’ groups haven’t exactly lined up behind Christopher Nolan’s film. Is that a signal that Oppenheimer could be more wobbly than pundits expect, or do those tastemakers feel the film is locked into the No. 1 spot and want to give some shine to other contenders? I get the sense it’s the latter, especially as the Academy members I speak to tend to gush over the A-bomb drama. “If you’re going to be over two and half hours, you’d better be The Godfather,” an Oscar-nominated screenwriter told me. “And Oppenheimer is The Godfather.” Missing the Visual Effects shortlist could be the thing that keeps it from becoming the year’s most-nominated film, but otherwise, Nolan & Co. should be feeling merry.

Tier Two: Could Win

Killers of the Flower Moon

Critics’ groups have been breaking for Martin Scorsese’s Osage-murders drama. But is the other three-hour excavation of our nation’s foundational sins too similar to Oppenheimer to gain an edge down the stretch? Team Killers has navigated the debate over Scorsese telling this particular story, accepting good-faith criticism while highlighting his efforts to privilege the Osage perspective. Putting Lily Gladstone front and center has helped inoculate against these critiques, and precursor voters seem to agree that she’s the heart of the film. (At the Gothams, Gladstone was the acting contender everyone wanted to meet.) As they have with Steven Spielberg, voters may figure that Scorsese has already been rewarded enough, but the luminous Gladstone could prevent Killers from repeating The Irishman’s Oscars Night blank.

Barbie

Greta Gerwig’s film holds what has often been a winning hand for Best Picture: It’s a box-office heavyweight that manages to feel like an underdog. The old saying goes that you build a winning campaign branch by branch, and Barbie leading the field at this week’s Oscars shortlists bodes well in that regard. (There was nevertheless one sour note, as the film’s boisterous bouffants missed the Makeup and Hairstyling nod everyone assumed was a gimme.) With multiple songs and plenty of crafts, Barbie should challenge Oppenheimer and Killers in total nominations, though how it will fare on the preferential ballot remains to be seen. If you like Barbie, you probably love Barbie, though I’ve heard some Academy members call it a two-hour toy commercial.

Poor Things

The feminist spin on Frankenstein could be this year’s Shape of Water — the film that prompts the Academy to finally embrace an offbeat international auteur. (Indeed, Yorgos Lanthimos has something of the teddy-bear vibe that made Guillermo del Toro and Bong Joon Ho so winning on the trail.) And just like del Toro’s film, Poor Things is weird enough to feel fresh, woke enough to flatter voters’ sensibilities, yet accessible enough to appeal to vast swaths of the Academy. Box-office numbers have been encouraging, but while the film has shown up everywhere it needs to, it’s still waiting for the big win that would boost it over the competition.

Tier Three: Seemingly Safe for a Nom

The Holdovers

The Holdovers has been chugging along on the back of critical love for Da’Vine Joy Randolph, and it’s the kind of warmhearted picture that tends to perform well on the preferential ballot. Can the campaign convince voters it deserves more than a Supporting Actress trophy?

Past Lives

The biggest surprise of precursor season so far is how well Celine Song’s romance has performed. For a small indie released way back in June, Past Lives getting off the Best Picture bubble is already a win, but you know A24 is thinking bigger.

Maestro

Like The Fabelmans, Maestro is being somewhat unfairly dinged as schmaltzy awards bait when what’s onscreen is a little more complicated. Regardless, it’s now the front-runner for this season’s villain and probably for the Suicide Squad Memorial Oscar now that Barbie and Guardians 3 didn’t make the Makeup and Hairstyling shortlist. Bradley Cooper and Carey Mulligan will earn his-and-hers acting noms, but it remains to be seen whether the directors’ branch is ready to let Cooper into the clubhouse.

American Fiction

Locked in for Picture, Actor, and Adapted Screenplay noms, but can it compete anywhere else? It may not need to: CODA won Best Picture with only three nominations.

Anatomy of a Fall

Neon kept the Palme d’Or winner in the race even after France declined to submit it for International Feature. Because of that, its spot may feel provisional up until nomination morning, but Original Screenplay is a lock, and Actress and Director are in play too

Tier Four: On the Bubble

The Color Purple

The tastemakers passed over Purple in several key races, leaving the musical in danger of missing out on a Best Picture place. However, the shortlists were kinder, and for a populist contender, it will be box office, not reviews, that really make the difference.

May December

The injection of fresh blood into the Academy has boosted many films that might not have been to the previous membership’s taste. Which is to say Todd Haynes may now be able to score the first Best Picture nomination of his career. This will be a test of the Academy’s taste, but Charles Melton has earned enough raves that he’s secure for a Supporting Actor nod regardless.

The Zone of Interest

In the era of the expanded Best Picture category, only once has the Los Angeles Film Critics Association’s top pick not gone on to a Best Picture nomination — in 2020, the year quarantine-addled critics went with Small Axe, which was ineligible at the Oscars. Jonathan Glazer’s Auschwitz art piece got a major boost from its LAFCA win, but though the film made the Best Sound shortlist, it also received a pair of scathing reviews from the influential duo of Manohla Dargis and Richard Brody.

Also in the Running:

In rough alphabetical order: All of Us Strangers (critics’ groups haven’t fallen for it the way Searchlight had probably hoped), The Boy and the Heron and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (it would be easier if there were only one of them), and Origin (a love-it-or-hate-it film and thus hard to figure out).