First, a note to all of you who have read all season: Hope you and your families had a happy Thanksgiving!

The Minnesota Vikings return Monday night to U.S. Bank Stadium for a critical NFC North matchup. Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields is out to prove he should be the guy in Chicago (or somewhere else). Minnesota, meanwhile, hopes to prove it can hold onto the football for four quarters. This is not the walk in the park it may have been a few weeks ago.

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The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here to preview the prime-time contest.

What I’m watching

Lewis: The Vikings defense against Fields. These two faced off for 35 snaps in Week 6. The Bears moved the ball easily on the ground but struggled in the passing game. Fields amassed a 36.7 passer rating, completed six of 10 passes and threw an interception. The Vikings defense is a choreographed deception that complicates pre-snap and post-snap processing for a quarterback. Fields has left a lot to be desired in that regard in his three seasons as a starter. Can he and the Bears run the ball effectively enough to dictate the tempo? Can Minnesota’s defense continue its ascent under defensive coordinator Brian Flores?

Krawczynski: Josh Dobbs against pressure. It’s been a storybook start to the quarterback’s time in purple, but it took a little hit last week in a winnable game against the Denver Broncos. Dobbs said after the game that he had to do a better job of adjusting protections to combat the defenders coming at him. One would think the Bears will try to take a page out of Vance Joseph’s approach and throw the kitchen sink at Dobbs to try to get him out of rhythm. How will Dobbs adjust to it? Will another week in the system help smooth out some of those wrinkles we saw Sunday night?

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There's learning opportunities, but there's a lot of positives to build upon…we're on to the next opportunity."

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) November 22, 2023

Biggest concerns

Lewis: Distance on third down. In Week 6 against the Bears, the Vikings had an average of 9.1 yards to go on third down. That’s a lot, and it’s largely why Minnesota only converted two of those 13 opportunities. The percentage of a team converting on third down more than doubles when it’s third-and-short compared to third-and-long, which is why coaches often prioritize run-game efficiency. Kevin O’Connell talks about this a lot, and it’s a prescient discussion point for Monday. Chicago ranks in the top five in most statistics related to rushing defense. Minnesota’s run game has struggled this season against stout defenses. Quick passes could keep Minnesota ahead of the sticks, and if the Vikings struggle on early downs, it might be a muddy night offensively.

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Krawczynski: Turnovers. Kind of basic, I know, but it feels like the season-long issue is one of the few ways the Bears can steal this one. The Vikings have more talent all over the field, are better coached and are light years ahead from the standpoint of organizational stability. They play close games all the time, so I’m not expecting a blowout. But the easiest way for them to lose a game they should win, just like in Denver, would be to give the ball to the Bears a bunch of times and short-circuit their offense. Chicago nearly upset the Detroit Lions last week thanks to three interceptions of Jared Goff, so the defense is more than capable of making big plays. Take care of the ball, win the game. It seems that simple.

Most interesting matchup

Lewis: Jordan Addison versus Tyrique Stevenson. The rookie first-round wide receiver against the second-round rookie cornerback. Addison has had a much more successful season than Stevenson — but he is coming off of one of his quietest games (just three catches for 44 yards), while Stevenson just had one of his most impressive. This might be Addison’s final game this season without teammate Justin Jefferson. Addison also dropped a deep ball down the sideline in the Vikings’ previous matchup with the Bears. Because Chicago has defended tight ends well this season and because running the football might be complicated, this could be a nice spot for Addison.

Krawczynski: The Bears’ running game versus the Vikings’ front seven. Chicago has the fourth-ranked rushing attack in the NFL, and it has certainly gotten more potent with the return of Fields. He rushed for 104 yards on 18 carries against the Lions last week. If he is that aggressive looking for lanes Monday night, it will put a lot more pressure on the Vikings defense. Keeping Fields in the pocket will be key.

Most interesting overall storyline

Lewis: The NFC playoff picture. The Vikings occupy the No. 6 seed by a razor-thin margin. The Seattle Seahawks are on their tail. The Green Bay Packers are a game back with quarterback Jordan Love on a bit of a heater. The Los Angeles Rams, Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are all vying for a postseason berth as well. Win games like Monday night’s, and the Vikings will take a large step in terms of securing a playoff spot. Then there are the Lions, who are 8-3 following Thursday’s loss to the Packers. If the Vikings can win and improve to 7-5, they can inch closer in the NFC North race.

Krawczynski: Is Ryan Poles ever going to walk out a winner against the NFC North? The Bears GM promised to take back the division when he was hired, but his teams are 0-9 in division play over the last year and a half. The Bears have been competitive in some of these games, including last week’s, but you would think the dam would have to break at some point. The Vikings cannot overlook the 3-8 Bears with the bye week looming on the other side. Taking them lightly could result in their second straight loss, which could start a nasty skid after such a nice winning streak.

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Schematic matchup to keep in mind

The Vikings utilized heavy personnel frequently in Week 6 in an attempt to run the football against the Bears. For example, they ran the ball seven times with two tight ends and two backs on the field, including C.J. Ham. Those attempts were unsuccessful. Minnesota ran for 7 yards on those seven carries. This Vikings staff is well aware of the Bears’ ability to stop the run. Offensive coordinator Wes Phillips lauded Matt Eberflus’ line movement following the game. Maybe the Vikings lean into heavy personnel again, or maybe they think creatively with Dobbs running the offense. Regardless, Ty Chandler should (and most likely will) factor in heavily.

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Predictions

Lewis: Vikings 21, Bears 19. This game might hinge on the Bears’ pass protection. Can it address its problems and hold up for Fields? If so, the Vikings are going to be in for a dogfight. I’m going out on a limb and predicting a one-score Vikings victory … because, well, they’re the Vikings. Bold, I know.

Krawczynski: Vikings 24, Bears 17. It’s hard to see how the Bears score enough points against a stingy Vikings defense that no doubt will come into this game ornery after giving up a game-winning touchdown drive to Russell Wilson last week. DJ Moore and Cole Kmet are nice weapons, but Flores will no doubt have a plan lined up.

2023 Vikings week-by-week predictions

(Photo of Jordan Addison: Quinn Harris / Getty Images)

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