What we’re hearing about a Noah Hanifin extension with Flames, and what it could look like
Mia Lopez The Calgary Flames entered training camp with their three biggest pending unrestricted free agents unsigned.
Mikael Backlund had made it clear he wanted to compete for the Stanley Cup, whether that be in Calgary or somewhere else. It seemed Elias Lindholm could go either way as well until he made it known ahead of the season that he wanted to stay. Meanwhile, Noah Hanifin’s situation seemed all but firmed up once reports surfaced that he wanted to play in the United States on his next contract.
Advertisement
Days into the regular season, it appears Hanifin may have a change of heart when it comes to his future.
Hanifin’s agent, Pat Brisson, told The Athletic this weekend that “more conversations” were being had and that they were “progressing in a sense” on a contract extension with the Flames. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman first reported the news during Saturday’s “Hockey Night in Canada” broadcast.
So naturally, when it was announced Monday that Hanifin would speak to the media after practice, there was some anticipation of a forthcoming extension.
Hanifin did his best to quash that, though.
“Probably nothing new to report right now,” Hanifin said. “My agent’s been, obviously, in discussions throughout the beginning of the year with management, (GM Craig Conroy) and those guys. For me, right now, it’s just trying to stay focused on the game and let them handle it. But yeah, they’re definitely having discussions and when there’s news to report I’ll let you guys know.”
It doesn’t mean that things can’t change quickly between the Flames and Hanifin. You may remember when we asked Backlund’s agent, J.P. Barry, in late September about a potential extension. Barry told The Athletic that the possibility of him staying had been discussed but negotiations had yet to begin. Four days later, a two-year contract was announced and Backlund was given the captaincy.
That an extension for Hanafin is even being discussed is newsworthy. It’s a change from the summer when teams like the Buffalo Sabres and Florida Panthers were linked to the 26-year-old in possible trades. There was certainly a market for defencemen with offensive ability like Hanifin once Erik Karlsson was moved from San Jose to Pittsburgh.
Hanifin remained with the Flames, though, and is quietly having a good start to the season with four points in six games.
Advertisement
Contract projections for Hanifin
Per Evolving-Hockey’s contract model, Hanifin’s next deal has a 69 percent chance of being an eight-year deal with a $7.446 million AAV. It would make him the highest-paid defenceman in Flames history and would give him the 25th-highest cap hit among defencemen, sandwiched between Florida’s Aaron Ekblad and Seattle’s Vince Dunn.
If Hanifin opts for seven years, it projects to a $6.693 million AAV. That’s closer to Dom Luszczyszyn’s model, which earmarks Hanifin’s market value as $6.3 million on average over the next eight seasons. Whether it’s seven or eight years, the deal would lock up Hanifin into his mid-30s.
Chart courtesy of Shayna Goldman
If Hanifin does re-sign, it’s another checkmark for Conroy’s wait-and-see approach with the Flames’ high-profile pending UFAs. At his best, Hanifin is a top-pairing, mobile defender who can play in all situations. Lindholm still looms large, though, and he won’t come cheap. Earlier this month, Winnipeg Jets centre Mark Scheifele signed a seven-year contract with an $8.5 million cap hit that begins in 2023-24.
You can count on Conroy to be among the many NHL GMs who are hoping for a significant salary cap increase over the next few seasons in the hopes of re-signing other players and accommodating more talent. Even as some Flames fans keep banging on the rebuild drum, it’s not on the immediate horizon. Keeping Backlund was a major indication of the team’s plans to contend for the playoffs for the foreseeable future, for better or worse.
The Flames just emerged from a five-game road trip with a number of concerns. Even if there is time to correct them, confidence is far from its peak in Calgary.
(Photo: Sergei Belski / USA Today)