Two of the more common questions I’ve been asked in the last two weeks, as The Athletic has launched its year-end 2018 NHL draft coverage, have been ones of hindsight.

Naturally, with the release of my final top-100 ranking, readers are curious as to how my previous rankings have fared. The other, is one I get all year long when commenting on drafted prospects: “Where would Player X fall in a re-draft?”

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And so I decided I’d try to tick both of those boxes and settled on the 2015 class as a good place to start. Given that three years have now passed, the 2015 draft is the most recent class that I’m able to adequately gauge in retrospect. The goal, here, would be to make this a regular feature where, every May, I’ll look back on the first round of the draft class of three years earlier (Ie. Next year I would re-draft 2016 and evaluate my own ranking).

This new ranking, like my draft ranking, does not take into account team need or preferences, but is instead just my evaluation of how things have changed.

1. Edmonton Oilers: Connor McDavid
Actual draft pick: No. 1 (change: none)
My final ranking: No. 1 (change: none)

I mean…

2. Buffalo Sabres: Jack Eichel
Actual draft pick: No. 2 (change: none)
My final ranking: No. 2 (change: none)

I still think Eichel is the second-best player and will be the second-best player to emerge out of the 2015 class but the gap between him and the handful of players that follow in this re-draft is a lot more narrow than we thought it would be, and it wouldn’t shock me if he was surpassed. McDavid has become the generational player everyone expected he would be, but Eichel hasn’t yet risen to the dominant level many (myself included) expected he would. Team, supporting cast, and injuries have played a part and I still believe he becomes a perennial 80-ish point centre, but the rest of his draft’s top players are catching up — and fast.

3. Arizona Coyotes: Mathew Barzal
Actual draft pick: No. 16 (change: +13)
My final ranking: No. 7 (change: +4)

This is the first slot where there’s not only movement but also a discrepancy between where the player was taken and where I had him ranked. I was really, really high on Barzal during his draft year and it still might have proven to not be high enough. I think his fall was an obvious mistake at the time and that was evidenced in his brilliant rookie season this year. Here’s the complete list of under-21 players (not even just rookies) who scored more than Barzal’s 85 points in 82 games over the last 10 NHL seasons: Connor McDavid (twice), Steven Stamkos (twice). That’s it. Even if you extend that all the way back to 2005-2006 (the first season after the lockout), that list only adds three more names: Sidney Crosby (twice), Alex Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin.

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4. Toronto Maple Leafs: Zach Werenski
Actual draft pick: No. 8 (change: +4)
My final ranking: No. 6 (change: +2)

This one was tough, but I’m confident it’s the right adjustment. Werenski is not only one of the best young defensemen on the planet, he’s one of the best defensemen on the planet, period. As good as the handful of players who follow him on this ranking have also become, Werenski looks like he’s going to be a Norris contender and he’s already a No. 1 defensemen on most NHL teams. Like with Barzal, I was higher on him on his draft day than NHL teams appeared to be. The Blue Jackets did extremely well to land him at eighth overall though. I’m happy with where I was at with him three years ago, even if he has progressed past a couple of players I had ahead of him. This kind of level was always in the realm of possibility for Werenski and my ranking was indicative of that. He’s the kind of young player every team (especially a team like the Leafs) is dying to acquire — but only a couple actually have.

5. Carolina Hurricanes: Mitch Marner
Actual draft pick: No. 4 (change: -1)
My final ranking: No. 5 (change: none)

Marner slipping from fourth to fifth is less about him going backwards versus expectations and more about a couple of players ranked behind him surpassing him. Marner remains a home run for the Leafs and one of the more dynamic young playmaking wingers in the NHL. If anything, that he has been exactly as advertised should be considered a huge success story because there’s always a chance thin, ultra-talented wingers who aren’t high-end skaters at the time of the draft don’t pan out. He most definitely has and if this year’s playoffs were any indication, he hasn’t reached his ceiling yet either.

6. New Jersey Devils: Mikko Rantanen
Actual draft pick: No. 10 (change: +4)
My final ranking: No. 9 (change: +3)

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Rantanen is another player who I was a little higher on than where he was selected — though it wasn’t by much — who has since panned out extremely well. No disrespect to Pavel Zacha, who the Devils took sixth overall (I was much lower at No. 13) and who has become a serviceable depth player, but he was, relatively speaking given how high they picked, a significant miss. Rantanen is fresh off an 84-point season and is one of only three players in the draft to crack 80 points to date with McDavid and Barzal. There’s an argument to be made for him ahead of Marner in a re-draft but he also benefitted from some pretty decent puck luck and I think his sophomore year may be his peak in a way Marner’s wasn’t — though they were both propelled by monster, likely unsustainable production on the power play. Still, 6-foot-4 wingers who can score and create plays? I’ll take one of those sixth overall, please.

7. Philadelphia Flyers: Ivan Provorov
Actual draft pick: No. 7 (change: none)
My final ranking: No. 8 (change: +1)

Provorov isn’t Werenski but he has become a legitimately high-end defenseman very quickly, and by all accounts the Flyers did well to land him where they did and shouldn’t regret it in hindsight. Could they have done better at the time? Maybe. But Provorov should be considered a hit for them regardless. He was outstanding this season and has established himself as one of the more dangerous goal-scoring defensemen in the NHL already. He tied Dougie Hamilton and Victor Hedman for first in the NHL in goals by defensemen (17) and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him crack 20 at some point.

8. Columbus Blue Jackets: Noah Hanifin
Actual draft pick: No. 5 (change: -3)
My final ranking: No. 3 (change: -5)

This is probably the first pick where the re-draft actually goes worse for the team that’s selecting than it did in 2015. The Blue Jackets would gladly reject their do-over and stick with Werenski. Hanifin’s also the first player I definitely missed on. Which isn’t to say Hanifin isn’t a fantastic defenseman. He is and he has taken strides in each season while remaining a hugely-positive influence on possession. But I was firmly in the camp that believed Hanifin was in that tier between the third and the fifth pick and it turns out he has ended up in a tier below that. Don’t sleep on Hanifin though. The rest of his offensive skills didn’t quite catch up to his skating like I thought they could but he remains a strong defender and an effortless skater who has learned to jump into the play more aggressively and has become a goal-scoring threat from the backend as a result. He led all Hurricanes defensemen in goals (10) and points (32) last season.

9. San Jose Sharks: Brock Boeser
Actual draft pick: No. 23 (change: +14)
My final ranking: No. 21 (change: +12)

I was higher on Boeser than he was taken at the time, but I’m probably lower on him than most are today (he’s an unquestionably great goal scorer, but he’s also got work to do on the rest of his game to become a reliable defensive player and avoid a pronounced dip in his production next season). There’s no question most of the league missed on him, though. Even if Boeser takes a modest step back, he still has 30-goal upside in a full 82-game season and I fully expect he’ll remain the Canucks’ first-line right winger for the foreseeable future (especially if Elias Pettersson ends up at centre, or on his natural left after years playing opposite his handedness on the right).

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10. Colorado Avalanche: Kyle Connor
Actual draft pick: No. 17 (change: +7)
My final ranking: No. 10 (change: none)

I was really high on Connor during his draft year and I’m still a big fan of his game now. I don’t think he’s anywhere close to finished developing and his 31 goals and 57 points in 76 games this season were just the beginning. He still has room to get a little stronger and he’s got the versatility to develop into a consistent 65-plus-point player. I’d identified him as one of the steals of the draft in Florida and that remains true today. He’ll benefit from playing in Winnipeg because their depth at forward will allow him to progress organically when he’s ready to take on a more significant offensive role.

11. Florida Panthers: Dylan Strome
Actual draft pick: No. 3 (change: -8)
My final ranking: No. 4 (change: -7)

Here’s the thing about Dylan Strome: I still believe he’s going to be an outstanding NHL centre. Here’s another thing about Dylan Strome: I still think his skating won’t prevent that from becoming a reality — even if it has to date. Strome falls in retrospect because he’s behind the curve, but if this list is fluid then I’m not sold players like Boeser and Connor are going to remain ahead of him. I still see a kid who sees the play develop before most others on the ice do, makes plays to get the puck to where it ought to be, handles the puck exceptionally well for his height, and can score with a heavy shot even though he’s got a long drawback on his release. In fact, I still think he’s one of the Coyotes’ most talented forwards and I’d put his production during his first full season at 50 points at the low end next year and 60-65 if he’s used  as a regular in the top-six and on the power play.

12. Dallas Stars: Sebastian Aho
Actual draft pick: No. 35 (change: +23)
My final ranking: Not ranked in my top 30

I tell myself that everyone else missed on Aho in the first round too (and pat myself on the back for recognizing that early on and taking him in my keeper league before he entered the NHL two seasons ago) but deep down I feel great shame. Looking back, this is my biggest miss in a re-draft. I liked Aho just fine in 2015 but I pegged him more as a second or third-round talent who projected as a depth scorer. I was wrong. He has since grown an inch and a half and become a reliable first-line winger and his team’s leading scorer as a sophomore (Aho’s 65 points with the Hurricanes was one better than Teuvo Teravainen). The Stars picked Denis Gurianov, who I had ranked in the third round, and they missed in a big way — he looks like he’ll be a depth forward.

13. Boston Bruins: Kirill Kaprizov
Actual draft pick: No. 135 (change: +122)
My final ranking: Not ranked in my top 30

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There were always concerns about a couple of things with Kaprizov:

1. That he’s 5-foot-9 and played on the perimeter
2. That he may not come over

I wasn’t worried about the former (and have explained why it’s not a factor here) and ranked Kaprizov in my third round. He went in the fifth. The latter has proven to be a real factor, which the Minnesota Wild haven’t helped — and now his NHL future remains in complete limbo. It doesn’t make any sense, but I can’t do this ranking on what-ifs and he’s one of the most talented players to come out of the draft.

14. Boston Bruins: Thomas Chabot
Actual draft pick: No. 18 (change: +4)
My final ranking: No. 26 (change: +12)

If Aho was my biggest miss of the re-draft, Chabot was a close second. I’ll be honest: While I felt everyone in my ranking from No. 11 to No. 29 in 2015 was in a similar tier, I did expect Chabot to top out as a second-pairing defenseman. That year, he finished fifth in the QMJHL in under-18 scoring by defensemen with 41 points in 66 games (0.62 points per game) and then didn’t look good in a brief playoffs. I saw a player who could score and skate but didn’t have the puck skills or the defensive game to become a first-pairing option down the line. Today, while I still question some of his decision-making at the AHL and NHL level, I think he has that upside if all goes well — and he quickly become an absolute terror in the QMJHL. It happens.

15. Boston Bruins: Travis Konecny
Actual draft pick: No. 24 (change: +9)
My final ranking: No. 12 (change: -3)

Though re-drafts normally don’t look good side-by-side any evaluator’s list (the nature of them is one of correction), this really doesn’t look good for the Bruins. Konecny, like Connor, is a player I believed was a steal on draft day and he has provided excellent value where the Flyers selected him at 24th-overall, after they moved up to take him. He shouldn’t have fallen and he has become the well-rounded, can-play-with-anyone-and-anywhere forward he was with the Ottawa 67’s. He doesn’t have the kind of offensive upside that all of the players ahead of him in this re-draft do but he’ll be an up-tempo 50 point player and that gives him huge value late in the first round. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he wears a ‘C’ at some point down the line either.

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16. New York Islanders: Jack Roslovic
Actual draft pick: No. 25 (change: +9)
My final ranking: Not ranked in my top 30

Roslovic is the third player — joining Aho and Kaprizov — who wasn’t ranked in my first round at the time (I had him at No. 41) but who I’d definitely go to bat for today. There are several players who follow who’ve already established themselves with a full NHL season as regulars on their team, but I now see the potential for high-impact upside in Roslovic that I don’t see in them. The Jets have an embarrassment of riches up front and it may take him some time but he’s got the ability to be a 60-point player.

17. Winnipeg Jets: Timo Meier
Actual draft pick: No. 9 (change: -8)
My final ranking: No. 19 (change: +2)

I was lower on Meier than most on draft day despite his high-end production, but I’ve grown to appreciate his game for a lot more than his 36 points in 81 games suggests. (For more on that, read this breakdown of his game from earlier in the season.) With that said, he’s not seriously in the conversation as a top-10 pick in a re-draft and he was probably taken too high at the draft. I really like Meier though. He’s a good player whose going to be better than his offence to date and a big part of whatever the Sharks do moving forward.

18. Ottawa Senators: Vince Dunn
Actual draft pick: No. 56 (change: +38)
My final ranking: Not ranked in my top 30

I was higher on Dunn than he was taken (I had him ranked 53rd) but this was a miss for me and for most NHL teams not named the St. Louis Blues. There were concerns ahead of the draft about Dunn’s attitude but he has since dispelled those and has taken all of the steps you’d like to see out of a CHL standout by dominating the AHL before stepping into the NHL to play a productive 17 minutes a night as a rookie. I’d like to see where his game goes in tougher minutes but there’s no questioning his talent or his tools anymore.

19. Detroit Red Wings: Jake DeBrusk
Actual draft pick: No. 14 (change: -5)
My final ranking: No. 27 (change: +8)

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The Bruins rightly took a lot of heat for the way they managed their back-to-back-to-back picks from 13-15 in 2015, and they have almost certainly missed on Zach Senyshyn and Jakub Zboril, but they deserve some credit for reaching a little for DeBrusk and hitting on that pick. Even if there were clearly-better players still on the board (Barzal, Connor, etc.), turning a 14th-overall pick into a middle-six winger with some scoring touch and physicality is a success by most standards. I don’t think DeBrusk has a ton of room to grow beyond the valuable player we saw in the Bruins’ playoff run, but that’s good enough.

20. Minnesota Wild: Daniel Sprong
Actual draft pick: No. 46 (change: +26)
My final ranking: No. 16 (change: -4)

This is the hill I’m willing to die on. After making the Penguins out of camp immediately after the draft (probably a year or two too early), Pittsburgh rightly sent him back to junior to iron out some kinks in his game. But just because he hasn’t found his way back and stuck doesn’t mean he’s not still going to be an excellent NHL player. I was extremely high on him during his draft year, shocked when he fell, and don’t have any real reason to bet against him today. This is a player who, since the day he was drafted, has done the following in all competitions (playoffs included) below the NHL level:

QMJHL: 140 points in 88 games
AHL: 73 points in 78 games

All he does is score. His AHL All-Rookie Team nod was earned and I still think he’s got serious offensive upside at the next level as early as next season. He remains one of the more rawly gifted skaters and handlers in the 2015 class.

21. Ottawa Senators: Travis Dermott
Actual draft pick: No. 34 (change: +13)
My final ranking: Not ranked in my top 30

I had Dermott in the 50s and 60s on my draft board for most of 2014-2015 and I thought he was a little bit of a reach on draft day because he was a mediocre skater on a very talented team who hadn’t proven to by as dynamic as a good number of other CHL defensemen with the puck and tended to rely on his outlet pass a little too much. (Plus I was high on Konecny, who the Flyers moved up to take as the Leafs moved down.) So what did he do? Well, he became an excellent skater and transformed his game to become less of a pass-first zone-exit option and more of a handler. Dermott now looks like he’s got contributing second-pairing defenseman written all over him and that’s a win early in the second round for the Leafs.

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22. Washington Capitals: Sami Niku
Actual draft pick: No. 198 (change: +176)
My final ranking: Not ranked in my top 30

Niku was an October 1996 birthday in a 1997 draft class who’d played well in Mestis but hadn’t yet been able to translate that in Liiga. I won’t lose too much sleep about this one but it is a lesson in paying closer attention to second-tier pro leagues, where legitimate prospects are often found (I’m looking at you this year, Jesse Ylonen). Niku’s an outstanding player now and yet another in a long list of standout prospects the Jets have lined up to support a team that is better-positioned moving forward than any other in the NHL.

23. Vancouver Canucks: Anthony Beauvillier
Actual draft pick: No. 28 (change: +5)
My final ranking: No. 25 (change: +2)

Beauvillier is another player who I don’t think is done developing. He paced for 42 points over 82 games this year and that was while playing just 14:32 a night (18th on the Islanders in average time on ice). At 5-on-5, Beauvillier produced 1.76 points per 60 minutes this season, good for sixth among regular Islanders while remaining a positive influence on possession (+2.34 Rel CF%). There’s more there and he should progress into a 50-point player.

24. Philadelphia Flyers: Ilya Samsonov
Actual draft pick: No. 22 (change: +2)
My final ranking: N/A

I didn’t include goalies in my ranking in 2015 but there’s no question Samsonov has defied the first-round goalie curse to date. His numbers in the KHL have remained elite for three consecutive seasons now and there’s a case to be made that he’s in the conversation as the best goalie not currently playing in the NHL. It’s only a matter of time until that changes, I’d think, but either way the Caps shouldn’t regret the leap of faith (and it is a leap of faith to draft goalies in the first round).

25. Winnipeg Jets: Colin White
Actual draft pick: No. 21 (change: -4)
My final ranking: No. 23 (change: -2)

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White’s first pro season was a disappointment but he also battled injuries, the transition to Belleville, and playing on one of the AHL’s worst teams. I still firmly believe he’ll become a contributing middle-six, two-way centre at the NHL level and an important piece for the Senators. There’s no denying his progression, since an all-world rookie season in the NCAA, hasn’t been as quick as it appeared it might be. Still, I expect big things from White. He does it all and it’s only a matter of time before that adjustment is made in the NHL.

26. Montreal Canadiens: Adam Gaudette
Actual draft pick: No. 149 (change: +124)
My final ranking: Not ranked in my top 30

The USHL has always been a relative blindspot for me (I don’t get the kinds of viewings of it that I’d like to) but Gaudette was an October 1996 birthday kid with middling gifts and 30 points (eighth on his team!) in 50 USHL games in his draft year so I’m not the least bit surprised he fell to the fifth round. Some players defy the odds. He’s one of them. Now, though, I think the Canucks might have found a gem. His college career was extremely impressive, even factoring in that he played with another elite college player in Dylan Sikura. I’m happy to file him with Sami Niku under ‘WHO KNEW!?’

27. Anaheim Ducks: Christian Fischer
Actual draft pick: No. 32 (change: +5)
My final ranking: Not ranked in my top 30

Fischer finished at No. 42 on my ranking in 2015, which was higher than the consensus (Future Considerations had him 53rd, NHL Central Scouting had him 37th among North American skaters). This year, in his first full season in the NHL, he became a serviceable middle-six forward (seventh on the low-scoring Coyotes in points) who still has the ability to give more than he was able to on a bad team — as a rookie who played 13:54 a night no less. I like Fischer’s game a lot and see him becoming at least a 20-20 guy who can reliably defend in all three zones.

28. New York Islanders: Pavel Zacha
Actual draft pick: No. 6 (change: -22)
My final rank: No. 13 (change: -15)

I was lower on Zacha than just about everyone in the scouting community, and warned several colleagues against ranking him in the top-10, but I thought he had a little more to give offensively than we’ve seen to date (a 30-point pace as a sophomore) and I don’t think he’s done finding his offensive game just yet. Plus, by all accounts, he was given tough minutes with the Devils and handled them well, which is what he does best.

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29. Columbus Blue Jackets: Joel Eriksson Ek
Actual draft pick: No. 20 (change: -9)
My final rank: Not ranked in my top 30

Eriksson Ek is a player who, as a draft prospect, I was cautiously optimistic about but not enough to make him a first rounder (he finished at No. 49 in my final ranking). At this point in the re-draft, he fits in the same nearly interchangeable group as all of the honourable mentions, but his track record in both the SHL and the AHL relative to his peers give me enough confidence that he’s going to be more than the depth forward he was for the Wild this year. Still, I think he was a little bit of a reach at 20th overall. He was a joy to watch in last year’s SHL playoffs though. When he uses his strength to win battles and create plays off the wall he’s a lot to handle.

30. Arizona Coyotes: Oliver Kylington
Actual draft pick: No. 60 (change: +30)
My final rank: No. 14 (change: -16)

I’ve still got a soft spot for Kylington, and explained why in my Calgary Flames prospect ranking earlier in the year. He was a steal at the time and that hasn’t changed for me, even if he’s slightly behind Rasmus Andersson on a deep Flames depth chart. Kylington has everything in a defenseman that I look for; he skates extremely well, he has learned to make smarter decisions with the puck and rely less on his skills than he did as a teenager, and he can create in transition as a handler or a passer. His defensive game — one of the factors which led to his fall — has also been polished nicely.

Honourable mentions: Rasmus Andersson, Erik Foley, Denis Malgin, Mathieu Joseph, Troy Terry, Andrew Mangiapane, Jordan Greenway, Anthony Cirelli, Filip Chlapik, Markus Nutivaara, Evgeni Svechnikov, Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson.

All told, I’m pretty happy with how my ranking has looked in retrospect. I was right about players like Barzal, Werenski, Connor, and Konecny, and right to be higher than the consensus — even if I wasn’t high enough — on players like Rantanen, Boeser and Beauvillier. There are also a couple of players I was high on at the time (Sprong, Kylington) who haven’t yet shown it at the NHL level but whose production, alongside my viewings since, still show promise as significantly better prospects than where they were selected. And on the other side, there were also a few players that I was probably rightly lower on than most, including Zacha and Meier. Not included in the re-draft, are also all of the other players I was low on who were taken too high — and haven’t progressed since. They were, among others: Lawson Crouse (taken 11th overall), Zach Senyshyn (incomprehensibly taken 15th overall and ranked in my late third round at the time), Noah Juulsen (ranked 47th, taken 26th), and Denis Gurianov (ranked in my third round, taken 12th).

But there were some misses too. Some, I’m happy to live with (Kaprizov, Gaudette, Niku) because they genuinely defied expectations. Others, were on me: Hanifin at No. 3, Strome at No. 4, Chabot at No. 26, Dermott in the 60s. And then there’s the big miss on Aho, a player I believed was a late second-round pick at best but who has since become one of the better players in the draft.

Have any questions about why I ranked Player X ahead of Player Y in the re-draft? Leave them below.

(Top photos: USA Today Images)