Who could the Cardinals target in free agency? Predicting starting pitching deals

At long last, the official start of the offseason is here.

The Texas Rangers were crowned World Series champions for the first time Wednesday night, meaning David Freese is now free to roam the Dallas-Fort Worth area without being called names. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak and chief executive officer Bill DeWitt Jr. can now commence their most important offseason in 15 years.

November should be a busy month for the St. Louis Cardinals, who will look to add pitching by any means necessary. Free agency opens in full on Monday, after the close of the exclusive five-day window after the World Series, when impending free agents can only negotiate with their current club. The Cardinals had only one impending free agent, right-handed pitcher Drew VerHagen, who elected free agency Thursday. The club’s 40-man roster now stands at 33, with the five players currently on the 60-day injured list (Dylan Carlson, Brendan Donovan, Packy Naughton, Wilking Rodríguez and Guillermo Zuñiga) needed to be added by Monday.

The Cardinals are expected to thoroughly peruse the starting pitching market, though this early in the winter it can be hard to predict what that market will look like. The good news? Thanks to The Athletic’s Tim Britton, we have a starting point.

Britton projected contracts for many starting pitchers who will or could become free agents. Using his projections, we can make our predictions as to who the Cardinals could target.

Look no further than "The Simpsons" for a catch-all phrase that defines the early part of the MLB offseason.
"Get to the money!"
Pitchers will be looking for hefty paydays, writes @TimBritton. But just how valuable 𝙖𝙧𝙚 some of the market's top arms?
— The Athletic MLB (@TheAthleticMLB) November 1, 2023

Let’s take a look at some of the top free agents, along with a couple of pitchers with ties to the organization, and explore the likelihood of a deal.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP

Age: 25

Britton’s projection: Seven years, $203 million

The top free-agent pitcher available this winter, Yamamoto will not come cheap. His sparkling 1.21 ERA over 164 innings for the Orix Buffaloes this year, along with 9.3 strikeouts per nine-innings and his minuscule 0.1 home-runs-per-nine-innings rate is sure to entice any major-market team. He’s a full-on ace.

Because Yamamoto is coming from the Nippon Professional League, any team that signs the prized right-hander will be required to pay a posting fee ranging from roughly $25 million to $30 million based on contract terms on top of the agreed-upon terms of what is likely to be a mega-contract. As Britton notes, Yamamoto’s contract is expected to exceed $200 million (and a Cardinals fan picturing Cardinals ownership handing out a $200 million deal is likely to elicit some scoffs).

This would be true any year — after all, the highest free-agent contract St. Louis has offered was a seven-year, $120 million deal to Matt Holliday in 2010. But it’s especially true this year, as Mozeliak has pledged multiple times to add three starting pitchers. Landing Yamamoto would be franchise-altering (and who knows, might even result in another front-office flower delivery) but would leave virtually no other cash for other pitching upgrades. Sure, president Bill DeWitt III said in October that the team would be “aggressive” in spending, regardless of the down year in team revenue. But a $200 million-plus deal would be unprecedented for the conservative Cardinals, and that’s without factoring in the need for two more pitchers.

Signing Yamamoto is not an impossibility. He has a solid relationship with Lars Nootbaar from their time playing on Team Japan in the World Baseball Classic. And the Cardinals direly need an ace. But St. Louis also needs a No. 2 and a No. 3, and I have a hard time believing this organization will commit upward of $300 million to make that happen.

So, hi, it’s me, your friendly neighborhood buzzkill, telling you to maybe pump the breaks on this one. Now, before you flock in a rage to the comments section, there are plenty of ways for the DeWitt family and Mozeliak to successfully address the rotation. The odds of those ways including Yamamoto however are pretty slim.

Likelihood of signing: 10 percent

Aaron Nola, RHP

Age: 31

Britton’s projection: Six years, $180 million

Another top-of-the-market arm, Nola is coming off a rather rough regular season combined with a powerful playoff performance. His 4.46 ERA in the regular season might make some turn away, but other stats, such as 200-plus strikeouts for the fifth consecutive full season, are worth a look. Nola packs the swing-and-miss punch the Cardinals desperately lack. He was top 10 in the National League in WHIP and strikeouts, but Nola’s most enticing trait is durability. He’s recorded exactly 32 starts in each of the past three seasons and logged at least 180 2/3 innings in each of those years.

Britton’s projected deal for Nola would result in a $30 million average annual value (AAV), higher than anyone on the Cardinals’ 40-man roster. But St. Louis isn’t going to magically float from worst to first in the division by avoiding the top available arms. They have an interest in Nola and are expected to pursue him. One thing to keep in mind about Nola: He has spent his entire nine-year career with Philadelphia. The Phillies have not ruled out an extension. In fact, they’ve been quite vocal in their desire to keep him. Philadelphia’s president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters at his end-of-year press conference that the organization’s priority was “to try to sign” Nola, and owner John Middleton doubled down, saying: “We’re going to make a really concerted effort to re-sign him.”

As for Nola?

“Hope I’m back, for sure,” Nola said after the Phillies were eliminated in the National League Championship Series. “But I don’t know what the future holds yet.”

That certainly dings the Cardinals’ chances, but I’d still expect them to be one of the more aggressive teams in the mix for Nola. They aren’t the favorites though. For that, I’d give the nod to Philadelphia.

Likelihood of signing: 40 percent

Blake Snell, LHP

Age: 31

Britton’s projection: Five years, $135 million

The likely NL Cy Young Award winner, Snell should merit a hefty payday in free agency. I’m hesitant to say that it will be with the Cardinals, though.

Already a winner of the Cy Young Award in 2018 with the Tampa Bay Rays, Snell’s career ERA of 3.20 is the lowest on the open market except for Clayton Kershaw. But there are many aspects of Snell’s game that organizations find risky, and a majority of those issues are things the Cardinals are trying to avoid.

Snell doesn’t go deep into ballgames (he’s never logged more than 180 2/3 innings in a season) and his walk rate was through the roof this year (5.0 BB/9). He’s become accustomed to pitching in traffic (a concept Cardinals’ pitchers are quite familiar with). The difference between Snell and St. Louis’ pitching staff however is that Snell can get himself out of his jams. See his league-leading 2.25 ERA as an example. He also has some of the nastier swing-and-miss stuff in the majors, with a whiff percentage in the 98th percentile of the sport.

Snell is a high-risk, high-reward arm. His approximated $27 million AAV means he’ll have heavy interest from the big-market clubs, but he’s also not out of the Cardinals’ price range. Still, St. Louis might be hesitant to make such a big gamble, especially when they’re already in the red.

Likelihood of signing: 30 percent

Sonny Gray, RHP

Age: 34

Britton’s projection: Three years, $72 million

Of all the available free-agent pitchers, Gray feels like the most obvious fit for the Cardinals. He’s entering free agency for the first time and is doing so after arguably his best season. However, since he is 34, he likely won’t land a lucrative long-term deal.

A three-year deal for Gray, who was an All-Star for the Minnesota Twins this year while posting an AL-best FIP (2.83) and home-run rate (0.4 per nine innings) is very doable for St. Louis. Gray is a tier under Yamamoto, Nola and Snell in terms of market value, but he’s a reliable, experienced arm who has logged an ERA lower than 3.75 in four of his past five seasons.

Gray has also been candid about what he wants in free agency. And while money is a factor, he said it’s not his highest priority.

“We want to go to a place where you feel wanted,” Gray said after the Twins were eliminated from the postseason. “I don’t know if this is the right thing to say before going to become a free agent, but I’ll say it because it’s honest. Money is not the ultimate factor for me. Never has been. Having said that, you want to be valued appropriately. … There are a lot of factors that go into those decisions.”

Gray seems like a logical fit for the Cardinals. The organization has a high interest in him. I like their chances of landing him.

Likelihood of signing: 70 percent

Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP

Age: 31

Britton’s projection: Five years, $80 million

Rodriguez is expected to opt out of the remaining three years and $49 million left on his contract with the Detroit Tigers, meaning he’d probably target at least a four-year deal. Britton’s projections give Rodriguez a $16 million AAV. That’s on par for his 2023 campaign, which saw the southpaw log his lowest ERA since 2019 (3.30) and the lowest WHIP of his career (1.153). He’s built a commendable career over eight seasons, but he lacks the swing-and-miss attributes the Cardinals are targeting. Rodriguez’s whiff rate and chase rate both ranked below 40 percent in 2023.

Eduardo Rodriguez posted compelling numbers but might lack the dominant stuff the Cardinals desire. (Charles LeClaire / USA Today)

Rodriguez will generate interest from plenty of clubs, but multiple times the Cardinals have stated their desire to bolster their pitching staff with more swing-and-miss. While Rodriguez would give St. Louis a more complete rotation, I see the Cardinals setting their sights elsewhere.

Likelihood of signing: 20 percent

Seth Lugo, RHP

Age: 34

Britton’s projection: Two years, $26 million

Lugo was primarily used in relief up until this season with the San Diego Padres. He certainly proved capable of being a solid mid-rotation arm, logging a 3.57 ERA over 26 starts. It’s not often a pitcher in his mid-30s packs significant upside, but Lugo’s jump in innings pitched and respectable walk rates (2.2 BB/9) and strikeout rates (8.6 K/9) make him an alluring candidate.

The counterargument against Lugo is his chase and whiff rates are remarkably lower than Rodriguez’s. He counters that with a lower walk rate, but given his pitch-to-contact profile, a deal for Lugo would only work if it’s supplemented with swing-and-miss from other pitching additions.

Lugo has a player option worth $7.5 million in 2024 but is likely to opt out. As with Gray, Lugo’s age will prohibit him from any long-term deals, but the Cardinals could hardly beat landing the right-hander for two years under $30 million. He won’t headline the rotation, but a back end that features a combination of Lugo, Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz would be a considerable improvement over the past three seasons.

Likelihood of signing: 60 percent

Bonus: Old Friends Alert

Jordan Montgomery, LHP

Age: 31

Britton’s projection: Five years, $105 million

Because he is a Scott Boras client, there was always going to be a clamor as Montgomery approached free agency for the first time. Now, after playing an instrumental part in leading the Rangers through the postseason, Montgomery’s price point is exponentially higher.

Montgomery spent roughly a year with St. Louis, entering at the trade deadline in 2022 and departing at the same time in 2023. He enjoyed his time with the Cardinals and developed a good rapport with his rotation mates, including Mikolas and Matz. But Montgomery also formed a strong bond with former Cardinals pitching coach Mike Maddux, who took the same role with Texas this season and played a key role in the Rangers trading for Montgomery three months ago.

Montgomery’s roughly $20 million AAV is reasonable and a deal that would leave plenty of room for other signings (assuming ownership does indeed “aggressively” spend). He isn’t an ace, but he’s a sturdy upper-rotation arm who was well-liked during his time with the organization. Still, the probability the Cardinals are outbid for him is high.

Likelihood of signing: 40 percent

Michael Wacha, RHP

Age: 32

Britton’s projection: Three years, $36 million

Wacha has a complicated contract arrangement with the Padres, including a team opt-out. If Wacha becomes a free agent, perhaps the Cardinals will be interested in a reunion.

Wacha last pitched for St. Louis in 2019 but spent the first six years of his career with the club after the Cardinals selected him with the 19th pick in the 2012 draft. His 2020 and 2021 seasons were down years, but Wacha has bounced back over the past two seasons, posting a 3.22 ERA in both years. The Cardinals could do an AAV in the $12 million range to bolster the middle of the rotation.

Likelihood of signing: 50 percent

(Top photo of Sonny Gray: Jay Biggerstaff / USA Today)