Why Jrue Holiday might be a better option for the Clippers than James Harden

Update: Jrue Holiday was traded to the Boston Celtics on Oct. 1. Details of that trade can be found here.

You may have heard about a big trade that went down Wednesday. At long last, the Portland Trail Blazers traded Damian Lillard, sending the All-NBA point guard to the Milwaukee Bucks in exchange for Jrue Holiday, Deandre’ Ayton, Toumani Camara, a 2029 unprotected first-round pick and pick swaps in 2028 and 2030. The trade allowed Portland to route Jusuf Nurkić, Nassir Little and Keon Johnson to the Phoenix Suns, while the Bucks also sent starting shooting guard Grayson Allen to Phoenix.

The trade news broke before LA Clippers president of basketball operations Lawrence Frank was set to meet with local media Wednesday. Not that Frank can talk much about the specifics of the move, of course.

I can talk about the deal though, so let’s talk about it!

A Lillard trade was the transaction the league had been waiting on for months. The fact Lillard did not go to the Miami Heat was a reminder that star players don’t always control every aspect of where they’re going. And while Lillard is the latest and the most notable starting point guard to be moved since February, he likely won’t be the last.

There’s a domino effect that naturally comes with Lillard moving as the league gets training camps underway next week. One direction goes immediately to the Philadelphia 76ers, where contract-year point guard James Harden has made his preference to be traded clear. The other direction goes back to Portland, where Holiday becomes a candidate to be rerouted due to the presence of No. 3 overall pick Scoot Henderson on the roster.

And thus, we have a confluence.

I mentioned this offseason that Lillard would not be as ideal a fit as Harden for this particular Clippers team. The Clippers tried to trade for Sixth Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon in a deal prior to the draft, which would have consolidated the power forward spot and brought in the big guard complement the Clippers prefer to pair with Westbrook, but backed out due to concerns over Brogdon’s health. Harden has been trying to get to LA, but Philadelphia’s determination to get a star player back while in Joel Embiid’s MVP window has played a key role in the 76ers’ reluctance to make a deal. Perhaps the Trail Blazers could be the center of another 3-way trade that sends Holiday back to the place where he started his career (Philadelphia) and Harden to the Clippers, with the Trail Blazers receiving more assets.

But there is a glaring pivot the Clippers could make: They could just acquire Holiday from Portland themselves.

Not to be Bill Hader’s Stefon here, but you can apply everything from the Harden calculus to Holiday. Let’s run through it:

On-ball creation

Harden is arguably the most isolation-heavy player in the league, and he’s good at it, especially compared to Holiday. While Harden still gets to the free-throw line at a high rate (6.2 attempts per game last season), it is a long-standing weakness in Holiday’s game (only 2.6 free-throw attempts per game last season).

But Holiday played on the ball heavily last season, ending 52.3 percent of his possessions as either the pick-and-roll ball handler, in isolations or on post-ups, per Synergy. And while Holiday wasn’t efficient in isolations, he ranked in the 79 percentile as a pick-and-roll ballhandler scorer while posting up more and more effectively than Harden.

Holiday had to be more of a second option than usual next to Giannis Antetokounmpo last season due to Khris Middleton’s injuries and was rewarded with his first All-Star selection in 10 years. If Paul George, Kawhi Leonard or Westbrook had to miss time in the regular season, Holiday has already shown he can raise his level of play and responsibility on the ball.

Off-ball offense

Milwaukee’s half-court offense wasn’t much to write home about last season. While Harden isn’t a player who moves much off the ball, Holiday wasn’t in motion much either, and he wasn’t particularly efficient off screens, cuts or handoffs.

But Holiday was good on his limited spot-up opportunities, making 45.4 percent of his catch-shoot 3s, compared to Harden’s 41.1 percent on those types of attempts on similar volume. Holiday was also much more likely to run (the Bucks averaged 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes with Holiday on the floor, while the 76ers averaged only 96.1 with Harden in the game), and Holiday was a much better finisher (68.3 percent in the restricted area) than Harden (57.6 percent).

Any discussion about a potential Clippers fit with a guard must consider coach Tyronn Lue’s penchant for deploying smaller players as pick-and-roll screeners. The Bucks didn’t use Holiday often in this role, but Holiday could certainly do it.

One concern is Holiday’s shooting has gone into the tank in recent playoff appearances. That’s an oft-cited shortcoming of Harden, who has shot 39.3 percent from the field this past postseason and is at 42.4 percent from the field in his career. But Holiday made only 39.6 percent of his field goals in three postseasons in Milwaukee, which included a 30.4 percent mark from 3. In the Bucks’ five-game upset first-round loss to the Miami Heat last season, Holiday shot only 40 percent from the field and 28.6 percent from 3. This is perhaps a reason Milwaukee moved aggressively to swap him with Lillard.

Positional size and versatility

While Holiday is listed as 15 pounds lighter than Harden, he has his earned defensive reputation in part due to his willingness and ability to guard bigger players. Holiday is a five-time All-Defensive team selection, and he was a first-teamer there last season for the third time.

Holiday averaged 1.2 steals per game last year, even while playing for a conservative Milwaukee defense that prioritized defending without fouling. He has strong hands, long arms and averaged a career-low 1.7 personal fouls per game while playing 32.6 minutes per game. Holiday also is a solid rebounder from the backcourt, averaging 5.1 rebounds per game. The Bucks allowed 4.1 fewer points per 100 possessions when Holiday was on the floor last season compared to on the bench, while the 76ers surrendered 2.6 more points per 100 possessions defensively when Harden played than when he sat.

Holiday is a significantly better player defensively than Harden, especially off the ball and in pick-and-rolls.

Contract details

Frank discussed the contract situations of Leonard and George in his news conference Wednesday. Both stars are extension eligible, and both can opt out of the final year of their contracts after this season. That puts a spotlight on the potential end of the Clippers’ championship window with both players on the team. The new Intuit Dome opens next season, further increasing the urgency to make a deep run in 2024.

Despite that floating factor, Frank dismissed any concerns about the nature of the negotiations, much like he did following the draft in June.

“PG and Kawhi, we have very, very candid conversations in terms of the goal to keep them as Clippers,” Frank said Wednesday. “So it’s not a warning shot, but I think all of us, me included, you feel a tremendous amount of responsibility and you take ownership for your piece of the pie so to speak, of how we each can do better for each other and ultimately for all our fans.”

Harden exercised his player option that will pay him $35.6 million next season, and that deal has a 15 percent trade kicker. He will be a free agent in 2024, so he fits the mold. But Holiday would be even more in alignment with the Clippers’ current window, as he is under contract for $34.9 million next season and has a player option in 2024 like George and Leonard.

Respect from stars

Back in February when the Clippers were in the midst of a 10-4 stretch, Lue praised Holiday for his return to All-Star status. Lue said that Holiday reminded him of former Clipper and current Grand Rapids Gold head coach Andre Miller.

T Lue had high praise for Jrue Holiday, compared him to Andre Miller in terms of underappreciated point guards
— Law Murray 📱 (@LawMurrayTheNU) February 3, 2023

Then, Holiday proceeded to put the Clippers stars in a car seat. Even though Holiday downplayed his efforts against Leonard in particular in Milwaukee (“Honestly, bro, he was just missing“), Holiday was credited by NBA Advanced Stats for holding Leonard to only 2-of-9 shooting when defending him.

Eight days later, Leonard did not play while the Bucks visited the Clippers, leaving George and a Clippers team without any of their traded traditional point guards to deal with Holiday. George shot 8-of-23 from the field, failed to get to the free throw line and was held to 1-of-5 shooting (all 3s) while Holiday covered him. Even the one shot George did make caused him to react as if to say “finally,” due to the night he was having against Holiday.

Related: it was after the second Bucks game that George used his postgame media platform to advocate for the Clippers to acquire Westbrook.

From @PodcastPShow
Paul George explaining how he and Kawhi Leonard loved Russell Westbrook addition and that George was ready to cede the point guard duties he was undertaking.
— Law Murray 📱 (@LawMurrayTheNU) March 6, 2023

The hometown connection

Like Harden, Westbrook, George and Leonard, Holiday is from the Los Angeles area. Prior to succeeding Westbrook at UCLA, Holiday was teammates with George’s podcast partner Dallas Rutherford at Campbell Hall. The homecoming narrative that persists with Harden is alive with Holiday, too.

Frank has been fond of Holiday’s game, specifically how he fits around a playmaking star while holding down the nominal point guard spot. After February’s trade deadline, Frank used Holiday as an example while making a point about guards who play different roles on contending teams.

“Who is the point guard for the Bucks?” Frank asked prior to the Bucks’ visit to LA. “Well, you would say Jrue Holiday. For years, people said Jrue Holiday is an All-Star, but is he a point guard?”

Frank was making the point as a way to explain how the newly acquired (and since departed) Eric Gordon could be the team’s point guard after Frank traded Reggie Jackson and John Wall. It was before Frank was convinced to sign Westbrook. On Wednesday, Frank explained how Gordon’s outlook changed once Westbrook arrived.

“When we saw Eric, if you remember the timing, we didn’t know that Russ would be traded and then waived,” Frank said Wednesday. “So with Eric, we saw someone who could play both on and off the ball and would be a terrific complement to Kawhi and PG just because of his shot range, his ability to guard up, he had enough ball skills where he could help offload some of the ball handling responsibilities. Well, what happened? Well, then all of a sudden, Russ becomes on the market, fills a very, very valuable role, and then we never really saw — you had a very, very small sample of Eric playing with Kawhi and PG.

“A great thing working for (owner) Steve (Ballmer), he never gives us financial limitations,” Frank continued. “But some things, just from a basketball sense, we felt with the guys we have that they were ready to fill some of the things we asked Eric to do. It’s a huge tax savings. And Russ was really, just knowing that we had Russ, it kind of would change Eric’s role. So we just felt (waiving Gordon) was best for the team.”

The Clippers are set to enter camp healthy and stocked. All three veteran contract-year power forwards will be there. Terance Mann and Norman Powell, two Clippers who would seem to be the most coveted assets in a potential Harden or Holiday trade, are set to be Clippers. Jason Preston has an October 1 guarantee date, so that’s the next Clippers deadline to watch in case they tried to include his salary in a deal.

The Clippers and Trail Blazers have a working history together that could further grease the wheels for a Holiday trade. Head coach Chauncey Billups is best friends with Lue and was an assistant coach on the 2021 Clippers team that made it to the Conference Finals. The Clippers hooked up with Portland in February 2022 to acquire Powell and Robert Covington, sending back only Justise Winslow, Eric Bledsoe, Keon Johnson and a future second-round pick. The Clippers and Trail Blazers met in Seattle for a preseason game last year, and the Trail Blazers even sent former development prospect Greg Brown III to LA’s G-League affiliate for several weeks.

Now, the Clippers will host the Trail Blazers in both teams’ regular season opener on October 25. Damian Lillard won’t be there. Will Jrue Holiday? And what uniform will he be wearing? Only time will tell. Frank can’t say much right now as he fosters competition on what is still considered a deep roster. But the door has not shut at all for a potential trade for Harden, Holiday or anyone else at any time between now and the end of October.

“One: we like our group. We like our team. You are always looking for ways to get better, both individually, as a team. Typically, if you just follow the probability, the greatest way to get better is internal improvement,” Frank said Wednesday when asked about potential trades. “But from our standpoint, we’ll always be aggressive trying to find ways to improve the team, and the timelines are the timelines.

“I like our group. I like our approach. But we’ll always look for ways to get better.”

(Top photo: Benny Sieu / USA Today)