Once billed as a generational collection of quarterbacks, the 2021 NFL Draft class has still largely failed to meet expectations.

Their stories are still being written, though it’s obvious some are on far better trajectories than others. And even as Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones were generating a ton of pre-draft hype, the historical data indicated there was a strong chance some of them wouldn’t pan out.

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The blame can be divided in several ways. But though the urge might be to label a player a bust, don’t lose sight of the fact that there’s a key organizational component also at stake.

Former NFL personnel director and current ESPN analyst Louis Riddick was prescient while discussing quarterbacks and their surrounding circumstances prior to the 2021 draft.

“Look at all the quarterback busts over time, and name me one who had everything given to him, was a high draft pick and flat-out fizzled out,” Riddick said. “There may be one, a few here and there who shot themselves in the foot. But more times than not, they went to terrible teams that had a tremendous amount of turnover. They weren’t protected and got their heads beaten in and didn’t have good wide receivers, had terrible defenses, had terrible ownership and front offices.

“And these guys got caught up in that meat grinder and got spit out. Then they’re considered guys who didn’t have what it takes to be a franchise quarterback, and that is just flat-out bulls—. We throw out all these stats … ‘This number of quarterbacks bust out.’ Does that just mean everyone is in that same f—ing boat all the time? It’s just not true. We do that because it’s easy to say, but it’s lazy as hell, and it does these guys a disservice. We know better, but people don’t want to admit that.”

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On the other hand, consider the way Tom Brady benefited from creative offensive game planning and Bill Belichick’s elite defense and special teams in his earlier years. Or how Patrick Mahomes was fortunate to sit for a year before breaking out with offensive mastermind Andy Reid, who is likely on his way to the hall of fame. Or what Aaron Rodgers may have gained by sitting for three years behind Brett Favre.

Brady, Mahomes and Rodgers may have all been great either way. But their careers were successful at a more rapid rate because of the circumstances around them.

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So what to make of the 2021 class? Why haven’t they panned out the way so many expected before the draft? League executives have pushed back on the class a bit in recent weeks, noting that some of the quarterbacks didn’t necessarily have the right skill sets to thrive in certain schemes and indicating the chance of failure was higher than anyone portrayed a couple of years ago.

To a certain extent, all five first-rounders have been victims of circumstance, though none are entirely absolved from blame. Let’s run through each situation to where these quarterbacks are tracking early in their third season.

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There is no greater example than Lawrence when it comes to situational importance. No one, especially a rookie, would have thrived or even kept his head above water in 2021 under coach Urban Meyer.

Lawrence, the No. 1 pick, admitted that he had to rebuild his confidence after his rookie season, and he hit it off right away with new coach Doug Pederson. Lawrence broke out in the second half of 2022 as he and the rest of the offense became more comfortable with Pederson’s scheme. The Jaguars made the playoffs for the first time in five years thanks to five comebacks from deficits of at least 9 points, and the Jaguars have credited Lawrence with being the catalyst and leader.

Lawrence has been widely expected to solidify himself this season as one of the league’s premier QBs. While that may still happen, the Jaguars’ 1-2 start has been a surprise, and the offense has suffered too many ill-timed drops and penalties to keep them off schedule.

.@blockayyy with the SNAG

— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) September 24, 2023

Lawrence was a generational prospect, and he is still on track to validate that reputation. It just took some patience through a wasted year to start that process.

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The No. 2 pick had some doubters among league executives prior to the draft, but Wilson was the Jets’ focus for much of the process.

It would be impossible to argue anything has gone according to plan. Wilson dealt with injuries and benchings due to performance through his first two seasons, and the Jets acquired Aaron Rodgers last offseason in an attempt to stabilize the position. They also showed no interest in moving on from Wilson during the offseason, instead hoping a couple of years under Rodgers’ mentorship would improve his career arc. Of course, that plan, too, quickly disintegrated on Wilson and the Jets when Rodgers tore his Achilles four plays into his Jets career.

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Wilson has mostly struggled to this point, completing just 54.9 percent of his passes over 25 appearances with 17 touchdowns, 22 interceptions and 75 sacks. He has to play with more confidence and make quicker decisions.

But this isn’t all on Wilson. The offensive line has had issues since his arrival. And while the running game kept everything moving early in 2022, Breece Hall’s torn ACL derailed the entire offense and put too much pressure on Wilson. It didn’t help that Wilson and offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur were rarely in sync.

Yes, @man_dammn ✌️

📺 on @NFLonCBS

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) September 24, 2023

There have again been some questionable offensive tendencies with new coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, whose system isn’t as different from LaFleur’s as some might lead you to believe. The bottom line is the Jets need to give Wilson a lot more support with Rodgers down for the season.

The root of Wilson’s hesitance in the pocket is up for debate. Did the Jets whiff on the pre-draft evaluation? Did the early benchings rattle his confidence and take the freedom out of his game? Was the system too inconsistent around him?

It’s undoubtedly a combination of each factor. Maybe there will be a clearer portrayal of the ratio by the end of the season, as the next 14 games could very well determine Wilson’s fate with New York.

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The 49ers made a huge gamble to move up to select Lance at No. 3. The decision ultimately resulted in a net loss of two first-round picks for a quarterback who started four games and attempted 102 passes before they cut bait this summer and shipped him to the Cowboys for a fourth-round pick.

The pre-draft concern about Lance was a lack of experience, and that continued into his tenure with the Niners. He played one full season at North Dakota State before the 2020 campaign was shortened to a single game due to COVID-19.

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Lance didn’t beat out Jimmy Garoppolo for the starting job in 2021, which wasn’t a huge deal, but he dealt with injuries during a couple of spot starts. That included a lingering finger injury that sabotaged his throwing mechanics. Then in 2022, Lance suffered a gruesome leg injury in Week 2.

Unbeknownst to Lance and the 49ers, they drafted his replacement with the final pick of the 2022 draft. Brock Purdy played very well down the stretch last season and easily retained the starting job last offseason, which led to the Lance trade.

League evaluators polled by The Athletic unanimously noted Lance’s film wasn’t good in San Francisco. The lack of timing and accuracy in a QB-friendly offense — albeit an incredibly demanding one — were highlighted as the biggest concerns. Maybe, they countered, the injuries and mechanical issues were the excuse.

But Lance needs playing time, and he wasn’t going to get any as long as Purdy remains healthy and plays at a high level. Of course, Lance isn’t going to get it in Dallas, either, unless Dak Prescott goes down or splits with the team in 2024 due to a breakdown in contract discussions.

Lance has plenty of natural talent, but it’s been four years and counting since he’s played a full season. Who knows when, or if, he’ll ever get that chance?

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The winless Bears are certainly tracking toward their 13^th consecutive season without a playoff victory, which is the byproduct of an organization in disarray for quite a while. They’ve had four general managers and five head coaches since their last playoff win.

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The Bears offense was a complete mess during his rookie season under then-coach Matt Nagy, and there was a vast shortage of quality personnel around him in 2022 as new GM Ryan Poles began an extensive rebuild. Fields showed some flashes last season, although the Bears’ 32^nd-ranked passing offense revealed there was plenty of work to be done. But again, with a dearth of quality help around Fields, it was impossible to gain a true assessment of his progress through two seasons.

This was supposed to be Fields’ breakout season, but it’s gotten off to a rough start. He’s held the ball too long and played too robotically, in his words, though the coaching staff can take on some accountability for those tendencies.

TIP ➡️ PICK@JustinqReid x @M__Edwards7

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) September 24, 2023

Yes, the Bears spent quality assets to put more talent around Fields. No, it’s not anywhere close to a finished product. And as the events have unfolded around the Bears over the last few weeks, the prolonged state of organizational disarray is still very much in question.

Fields’ performance over the rest of the season may very well shape the rest of his career because the Bears also hold the winless Panthers’ first-round pick in 2024. If the Bears continue to struggle and Fields is part of the reason why, Poles may be in a position to draft superstar college QBs Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.

Jones was the Patriots’ second-ranked QB prospect behind Lawrence, so they believed they were fortunate to draft him at No. 15. Jones played well as a rookie and earned alternate Pro Bowl honors, but coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots failed him in 2022.

The offense under “offensive coordinator” Matt Patricia was an unmitigated disaster, with league executives unanimously agreeing no quarterback could have played well due to an array of issues with the play-calling, schematics and strategy, not to mention poor line play that resulted in three different injuries in the first three games of the season.

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Belichick didn’t do nearly enough to set up Jones for success on or off the field. And while Jones’ frustrations with the situation were understandable — including private attempts to work to improve the offensive structure — a leader at quarterback needs to hold himself to a higher standard on the field to prevent showing up the sideline.

The two sides have been in a much better place since the offseason, and the hiring of offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien has been a massive reason. The Patriots are again running a professional and capable offense, although ongoing mistakes and missed blocking assignments have significantly restricted their potential.

Perfect execution from @Iamxavienhoward 🔥

📺: #MIAvsNE on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus

— NFL (@NFL) September 18, 2023

Jones continues to look like an NFL starting quarterback, but the organizational inconsistencies over two-plus years have made his ceiling still something of a projection. Another concern has been the inability to win games in late and clutch situations. The Patriots failed to convert multiple opportunities to beat the Eagles in Week 1 or overtime against the Dolphins in Week 2, and the offense stalled out with chances to put away the Jets in Week 3. And while Jones could have been better in certain situations, he can’t force a receiver to tap his feet inbounds near the sideline or the linemen to complete their blocking assignments.

This is an important season for Jones and the Patriots. If the final record isn’t good enough, there could be some bigger changes in order.

(Photos: Al Pereira, Brandon Sloter, Mike Carlson / Getty Images)

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